Thunder vs. Sixers Odds, Prediction, Picks (April 26, 2021)

The reeling Sixers limp home losers of four straight for the first time this season, suddenly staring up at the Nets who hold a 1.5 game lead atop the Eastern Conference. Philadelphia has failed to cover the final line in any of their last six contests as well, leaving many bettors scratching their heads at the double-digit spot they are donating to their opponent tonight, the Oklahoma City Thunder. Is this line justified or will the Sixers disappoint their backers once again? What do the rash of injuries on both sides mean with regards to the total tonight?

Let’s take a closer look at the top Sixers vs. Thunder game picks and make some predictions for this April 26, 2021 matchup.

Thunder vs. Sixers Pick (April 26, 2021)

Philadelphia will miss Ben Simmons once again tonight and his absence has been profoundly evident in the results. Without one of the league’s best defenders in the lineup, the Sixers have allowed 116+ points in three straight games.

Joel Embiid, who missed Saturday’s blowout loss to the Bucks, and Tobias Harris, who missed time last week, both carry questionable tags into Monday afternoon. They join key reserve, Furkan Korkmaz, on the list of unknowns regarding availability for tonight’s contest. The Thunder will be without Al Horford, who was shut down for the season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has missed over a month with a foot injury, and Luguentz Dort, set to miss with an ailing hip, despite averaging 28.8 points per game across his last four contests.

The known and potential absences of these stars should open up some exploitable betting angles for us. Let’s now evaluate a couple potential betting options in this crucial game for the Sixers. Below you will find what we consider some worthwhile predictions and picks offered at various betting houses for tonight’s game.

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Thunder vs. Sixers Odds

Here’s the line for the Thunder and Sixers at DraftKings Sportsbook:

Team	Run Line	Moneyline	Total
Hawks	+7 (-108)	+240	O 215.5 (-112)
Sixers	-7 (-113)	-295	U 215.5 (-109)

And here are the current best available odds for the Sixers (may not display on Google AMP pages):

Bets we Like with a Sixers Win

Philadelphia 76ers -7.5/Under 214.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook +270)

There is such a lack of chemistry and rhythm for the Sixers on the court right now due to the many and varied absences of their stars of late. This group, which averages 113.2 points per game on the season, has scored just 105.2 ppg in its last five games, failing to reach 100 points twice in their last four.

However, no matter what is available for the Sixers tonight, they are still the far superior team in terms of talent on the court. The Thunder went into a full-on rebuild with Chris Paul’s departure this offseason and now have the only three NBA starter-caliber guys sitting on the sidelines.

With Dort out, you take his roughly 30 points per game across their last four from a lineup that managed just 109.5 in that span. Where is OKC going to find 100 points tonight against the NBA’s seventh-best scoring defense and sixth-best field goal defense? As the league’s third-worst scoring offense, fourth-worst field goal percentage and 3-point field percentage, and worst foul shooting team, the answer is that the Thunder are not going to find 100 points tonight.

The Sixers have held 12 opponents to less than 100 points this season and won ten of those by more than 7.5 points, including nine of the last 10. But with the stars that could miss tonight or get their minutes chopped with a big Sixers lead, we don’t see Philly producing enough to push this one over 214.5.

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Philadelphia to Win First Quarter and Philadelphia to Win Game (FanDuel Sportsbook -210)

Shrinking a -950 moneyline favorite to -210 by simply asking them to win the first quarter as well is quite enticing in this particular situation. The Sixers are so dominant here at home that we feel extremely confident they should, at the very least, win the game, regardless of who suits up for them. They are 22-7 at the Wells Fargo Center and have just one loss there to a sub .500 team. That came nearly two months ago to their strange bugaboo, the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The harder defense, then, would be the Sixers winning the first quarter. However, we should also feel confident in their ability to do just that, as they have won the first quarter in five straight wins, including two here at home. Going back further, they have only lost two of their last 15 first quarters in games they have won, most against teams far superior to this Thunder group. The Sixers also outscored OKC 37-25 in the first quarter in a 117-93 victory in Oklahoma City just over two weeks ago.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Philadelphia 76ers to Win the first Three Quarters and lose the Fourth (+530)

In all likelihood, this one could have fallen in the “Bets We Like With a Sixers Win” group, but the way Philly has blown big leads in their semi-recent past, we will place it here.

This game is of huge importance for Philadelphia. The Sixers trail Brooklyn by 1.5 games, but have a game in hand as well as the head-to-head tiebreaker. Milwaukee is also lurking just two games back, while owning the tiebreaker over the Sixers. Coming home where they are so good and knowing that no one played more than 27 minutes in Saturday’s loss to the Bucks, they should be aiming for a statement win to get some confidence back.

The Sixers have been fast starters in their wins, as discussed above and are playing a team who struggles from behind the arc and at the stripe, making the Thunder far less likely to get randomly hot in a quarter. And the injuries have made it hard for the Sixers to be their best, but, honestly, it’s been the defense that has let them down. With that being largely an effort-driven result, I expect the approach to getting back to winning ways to start with a focus on the defensive end tonight.

I also believe the Sixers lineup should be a presentable one tonight, despite Simmons’ definitive absence. If so, they are so far above and beyond the Thunder in on-court talent. That, coupled with their piqued motivation, should mean they can blow this one open much like they did in the aforementioned win in OKC on April 10 where they won all four quarters. However, with the need to also get healthy for the playoff an extreme priority, if the Sixers indeed do have a big lead in the early fourth quarter, look for Doc Rivers to manage his stars’ minutes and coast a bit to a win down the stretch, leaving the door open for OKC to win that final quarter.

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Thunder vs. Sixers Prediction

As already mentioned, the Thunder lack anyone who can take over this game and are going to struggle mightily to score 90 points, let alone 100, against what should be a hungry Sixers defense. The Sixers’ question marks regarding health, as well as their lack of recent chemistry to the lack thereof, should put a ceiling on their own ability to score near or above their season average of 113.2.

For all their ills during this rebuild, the Thunder have still managed to be a top half team in defensive field goal percentage and the eighth-best team in the NBA at defending the 3-point shot. With the possibility of Philly resting guys late in a blowout, and with two terrible foul shooting teams on display tonight, this should have every opportunity to stay well under the posted total.

Oklahoma City has played 19 of its 30 away games under the total (63.3%). They have also produced nine under in 14 tries (64.3%) as double-digit underdogs of less than 15 points. That couples well with the Sixers, who have played three of their four games as double-digit favorites under the number.

The Thunder, who enter off a 129-109 home loss to the Wizards on Friday night, have played five straight games under following an ATS loss and six of their last eight under after allowing 125+ points previously.

The Thunder have played five of their last six road games under the number, as well. More specifically, the under has gone 12-5 in Oklahoma City’s last 17 road games against teams with above .600 home win percentages.

ATS Pick

Philly has played under in nine of their last 10 after an ATS loss and five of their last seven after a straight up loss. They have played six of their last seven as a favorite and 28 of their last 41 as a home favorite under the number, as well. With eight unders in Philly’s last 10 games against losing teams, look for tonight to make it nine unders in the team’s last 14 overall this season.

Our Pick: OKC/Phi Under 219.5