Brewers vs. Phillies Odds, Prediction, Picks (May 5, 2021)
The Phillies will look to secure a series victory against the Brewers tonight at Citizens Bank Park, but they will be facing quite a test as Milwaukee sends Freddy Peralta (3-0, 2.25 ERA) to the mound. Peralta has been one of the game’s elite strikeout pitchers through the first month of the season, which could spell trouble for a Phillies lineup that has struck out 9.77 times per game thus far. Philadelphia will counter with Chase Anderson (1-3, 5.40 ERA), who worked into the sixth inning last time out to pick up his first win of the season.
Let’s take a look at the Brewers vs. Phillies odds for the third game of a four-game set and make a game prediction along with some betting picks.
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Brewers vs. Phillies Odds (May 5, 2021)
Here is a look at the current Brewers vs. Phillies odds for this May 5, 2021 matchup, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | -1.5 (+125) | -132 | O 9 (-110) |
| Phillies | +1.5 (-148) | +114 | U 9 (-110) |
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Brewers vs. Phillies Prediction
When you see a team play six straight one-run games for the first time in over 20 years, you have to protect yourself in the best way possible.
Laying -140 to get the Phillies to lose by one run or win the game seems like a great bargain in this spot.
We played this run line with tonight’s starter for the Phils, RHP Chase Anderson, in his last start and Philadelphia won outright. That game also featured Anderson as a home dog, as he was facing Marcus Stroman and the Mets. Tonight he will battle with RHP Freddy Peralta of the Brewers, as the Phils look to clinch this four-game series win here in game three.
Playing this runline gives us some outs (no pun intended) if Milwaukee rallies together to get a much-needed win here and salvage a chance at a series split. It could be a tricky spot for Philly, as Anderson does not typically pitch deep into games and the Phillies’ bullpen is incredibly stretched right now. Making matters tougher is the likely absence of Bryce Harper and Roman Quinn’s likely IL trip. How long will the Band-Aids the Phils are putting on these holes hold up?
A Safe Play
That being said, we love that Philly finally ended the streak of 10 straight losses following a win last night. They can play a little looser tonight with that monkey off their collective backs and go for the series win. Notably, since last August, the Phillies are 5-1 when going for their third straight win.
At the end of the day, weak hitting and a bad bullpen aside, the Phillies have been a solid home team all season long, winning 11 of their 17 games at Citizens Bank Park. Actually, two of those six home losses were by one run, as well, meaning that we would have won this wager in 13 of Philadelphia’s 17 home games (76.5%).
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The Phils have played fourteen one-run games already (no one else in MLB has more than 11), losing six of those contests. Their adjusted record for a +1.5 runline is 21-9 (.700). Milwaukee has nine one-run finals of their own, winning five of those, giving the Brewers a 12-18 (.400) adjusted record for on the -1.5 runline.
Not So Bad
The Phillies’ 1-4 record in Anderson’s starts this season is a bit misleading. He has allowed two runs or less in four of his five starts and has not received more than four runs of support in an outing yet this season. He also endured one of Philadelphia’s six one-run losses. Anderson was a longtime Brewer and only four current Milwaukee players have faced him, going 9-for-34 (.265) with no walks.
The Brewers are struggling to score runs right now, plating just 30 runs over their last nine games (3.33 runs per game), so I expect the Phils’ right-hander to continue to keep them in this one tonight, especially at home. Of note, Anderson boasts a 3.33 ERA so far this season in three starts at Citizens Bank Park.
Swing and a Miss
Peralta has been fantastic for the Brewers in the early going, with his aforementioned 3-0 record, 2.25 ERA, and 1.00 WHIP through five starts and six total appearances. The righty, who has been a strikeout machine thus far, averages just over five innings per start, but he has fanned at least seven batters in each of his appearances.
The Phils beat Peralta 7-4 in his only start against them back in 2019. Current active Phillies’ position players have hit a nice 6-for-14 (.429) off the right-hander in a small sample, with the suddenly hot Andrew McCutchen touting a 3-for-4 against him.
Looking at a few trends, note that Milwaukee is just 2-6 in their last eight games after scoring five or more previously, while Philly is 7-3 in their last 10 after allowing five or more runs previously. The Crew has also managed just one win in its last six games against the NL East. The Phillies have taken four of the last five in the head-to-head and have won five straight games against teams with above .500 records.
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Brewers vs. Phillies Betting Pick
Much like the Stroman spot against Anderson last week, it’s worth pointing out that Peralta’s 1.00 WHIP could work against him as Philadelphia has won four of their last five games against pitchers with WHIPs below 1.15. Look for the Phillies, who are 24-11 in their last 35 home games, to keep this close and have every chance to secure a series victory ahead of a day game tomorrow to close out their homestand.
Our Pick: Philadelphia +1.5 runs
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