Flyers vs. Penguins Betting Odds, Pick, Prediction (May 3, 2021)
On Monday night, the Philadelphia Flyers will play host to their cross-state rivals the Pittsburgh Penguins. This represents the seventh meeting between the teams this season and the first of a back-to-back taking place in Philadelphia.
Let’s get into our Flyers-Penguins betting pick with player prop predictions, odds and analysis for this May 3, 2021 matchup.
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Flyers vs. Penguins Betting Pick (May 3, 2021)
The Philadelphia Flyers are set to host the Pittsburgh Penguins in this season’s seventh iteration of the Battle of the Keystone State. The teams will meet for two games in two nights at the Wells Fargo Center, which mark the final two meeting between the teams this season.
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The Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers are two teams heading in different directions, and in a sense have found themselves in one another’s position if preseason predictions had played out. Ahead of the season, many questioned whether or not the combined greatness of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang could carry the Pens to the postseason or if this could have represented the aging core’s final season together. Instead, they saved some of their best hockey for the second half of the season and have gone 7-2-1 in their last ten games on their way to the top of the East Division.
The Flyers have gone 3-6-1 in their last ten games and are coming off a dreadful four-game series against the New Jersey Devils in which they dropped three of four contests. Philadelphia allowed one of the worst offenses in the NHL to score at will, including on the power play, where the Devils had been anemic all season. As they enter play on Monday night, Philadelphia’s 51 points give them the 14th-best odds in the NHL Draft Lottery with a 3.2% chance at a Top-2 pick and a 1.5% chance at the #1 overall pick. If they were to rack up a few more regulation losses down the stretch, they could theoretically get to the 11th-best odds.
Will Pittsburgh continue their dominant play or will the Flyers pull off the upset against their cross-state rivals?
Flyers vs. Penguins Odds
Here’s the line for the Flyers and Penguins at DraftKings Sportsbook PA:
- Spread: Flyers +1.5 (-175), Penguins -1.5 (+143)
- Moneyline: Flyers +145, Penguins -175
- Over/Under: O 6.5 +100, U 6.5 -121
[sb-standard teams=”Philadelphia Flyers” books=”DraftKings”]
Bets We Like With a Penguins Win
Money Puck gives the Penguins just a 59.2% chance of winning this game. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s implied win probability based on the moneyline is slightly higher at 61%.
Penguins to Win and Over 6.5 Goals (+205, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers have played to some interesting results this season, with each team tasting victory on multiple occasions. The Flyers began the season with back-to-back wins on home ice by 6-3 and 5-2 scores, before Pittsburgh defended home ice on March 2. Two days later, the Flyers earned their third victory 4-3, which appeared to seize momentum until Pittsburgh won 4-3 two days later. That set of two losses in three games sent the Flyers plummeting in the standings and led off a disastrous month of March. With the Pens looking toward the postseason and Philadelphia clearly heading for an early offseason, the Flyers skated away with a 2-1 shootout win in Pittsburgh on April 15.
The issue at hand is the teams are heading in opposite directions, with the Pens hoping to hang onto the top seed in the East Division, while the Flyers are heading home in five games. It would be easy to write in a Penguins victory in marker, but this is Philadelphia’s biggest rivalry and they’ve won four of six previous meetings between the teams. Still, we expect the Penguins to win this game.
As for the total goals, we fully expect both teams to find the back of the net, and it’s critical to note that the total goals have gone over 6.5 in five of six meetings between the teams this season. The lone outlier came in the last meeting between the teams, when Philadelphia prevailed 2-1 in a shootout in Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh has scored at least five goals in three of their last six games and at least three goals in five of their last six games overall. Philadelphia, meanwhile, a dreadful New Jersey Devils squad to rack up three, six, five, and four goals in their four-game set last week. Pittsburgh has scored the most goals in the East Division (178) and it stands to reason they’ll put up plenty tonight.
Bets We Like Independent of Outcome
Sidney Crosby to Score a Goal (+168, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Sidney Crosby just might be the most disliked player when it comes to the Orange & Black’s fanbase, but his greatness simply cannot be denied. On the season, the Penguins captain has found the back of the net three times in five games against his team’s cross-state rivals. The most interesting part of Crosby’s goalscoring against. the Flyers is that he’s done it more at Wells Fargo Center (2) than at PPG Paints Arena (1). Even more notable is the historic trend developing with Crosby’s propensity for scoring in Philadelphia. Crosby has found the back of the net in six of his last seven games against the Orange & Black in their arena.
Given Philadelphia’s issues in their defensive end rearing their ugly head again, as well as Crosby’s knack for scoring in the City of Brotherly Love, this one is worth getting in on.
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Jake Guentzel to Record an Assist (+105, BetMGM)
Entering this abbreviated season, the biggest looming question hovering over the Pittsburgh Penguins was whether or not enough of Pittsburgh’s younger players could step up in a big way, pushing the Pens to a postseason berth. Jake Guentzel has stepped up his game in a big way this season, averaging more than a point per game. Guentzel has found the back of the net 22 times and dished out 31 assists (53 points) in 52 games this season. He’s earning every bit of the 20:20 time on ice he’s averaged this season.
Although his goalscoring has been virtually even with his assists, we’d recommend taking Guentzel to record an assist rather than score a goal. Guentzel has not found the back of the net in any of his six games against the Flyers this season, but he has set up five goals in those six games. Philadelphia is the only team he’s failed to score a goal against this season. As such, if you’d rather hedge and get in on him to record a point of any kind, you could get in on that market at -200 odds with BetMGM.
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Flyers vs. Penguins Prediction
Pick: Although Philadelphia has the innate ability to shock contenders, as they did 2-1 in a shootout in the last game between these teams, there’s little reason to believe it will happen tonight. Philadelphia was a miraculous effort from captain Claude Giroux away from getting swept in a four-game set against the Devils. Pittsburgh is the best team in the East Division. Rivalry or not, Pittsburgh should roll. Take the Penguins to Win and Over 6.5 Goals.
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