On Tuesday night, the Philadelphia Flyers will play host to the Pittsburgh Penguins. This represents the eighth and final meeting between the teams this season.

Let’s get into our Flyers-Penguins betting pick with player prop predictions, odds and analysis for this May 4, 2021 matchup.

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Flyers vs. Penguins Betting Pick (May 4, 2021)

Tuesday night’s matchup between the Philadelphia Flyers and the Pittsburgh Penguins marks the final iteration of the Battle of the Keystone State, with the Penguins looking to reclaim the top seed in the East Division, while the Flyers will look to play spoiler.

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Monday night’s win over Pittsburgh represented just the fourth time in eleven games overall in which the Flyers skated away as the victors. Kevin Hayes got the scoring started with just under six minutes gone in the first period, just his 12th goal of the season. Defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere’s first period goal held real significance as it moved him into fourth place on the Flyers All-Time list for goals by a defenseman with his 60th career tally. Captain Claude Giroux, who has played like a man possessed over the past few weeks, scored a goal of his own with 4:48 remaining in the first period. Rookie Wade Allison found the back of the net midway through the second period to give the Flyers an improbable 4-0 lead. With 2:30 gone in the third period, Penguins captain Sidney Crosby’s deflection beat Alex Lyon for the first time, while Jason Zucker’s goal six minutes later cut the deficit to two. Philadelphia would not be denied as Joel Farabee netted his 17th goal of the season, which was followed up six minutes later by Giroux’s second of the game. Defenseman Robert Hägg scored an unlikely goal with just over a minute remaining in the game, sealing a major upset by a 7-2 score.

Will the punch in the mouth the Pens received from their cross-state rivals on Monday night fuel them to victory on Tuesday night or will the Flyers revel in the opportunity to play spoiler once again?


 

Flyers vs. Penguins Odds

Here’s the line for the Flyers and Penguins at DraftKings Sportsbook PA:

  • Spread: Flyers +1.5 (-167), Penguins -1.5 (+140)
  • Moneyline: Flyers +148, Penguins -175
  • Over/Under: O 6.5 -103, U 6.5 -118

[sb-standard teams=”Philadelphia Flyers” books=”DraftKings”]

 

Bets We Like With a Penguins Win

Money Puck gives the Penguins a 56.7% chance of winning this game. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s implied win probability based on the moneyline is slightly higher at 61%.

Penguins to Win and Over 6.5 Goals (+205, DraftKings Sportsbook)

If there’s one thing that stuck out in Philadelphia’s 7-2 home triumph over their cross-state rivals, it’s that parity still exists in the NHL. Pittsburgh was riding high, entering Monday night’s contest in the top spot in a stacked East Division, while Philadelphia was getting ready to book offseason tee times. Instead, Philadelphia collected their second straight win over Pittsburgh, in their most dominant performance in months. So, it would stand to reason that they could build off their momentum and nail down another home victory in the final Battle of the Keystone State of the season. However, it’s critical to point out that Philadelphia hasn’t won consecutive games since March 27 & 29. Since that time, Philadelphia has had four opportunities to win two-consecutive games and failed to do so each time.

Pittsburgh found success against Flyers netminder Brian Elliott in their last game against him back on March 6, when they scored four goals on 27 attempts. On the season, Elliott has posted just a .875 SV% with an unimpressive 3.54 GAA. Although Elliott had Monday night off, a motivated Pittsburgh team fighting to get back on top of the division is a tough proposition.

As for taking over 6.5 goals, there are a number of reasons to parlay this with a Penguins moneyline bet. In 26 games at Wells Fargo Center this season, the over has hit 16 times, while the average goals scored comes in at 6.3. In the seven previous meetings between these teams, the Over 6.5 Goals market has hit six times.

 

Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Over 1.5 Third Period Goals (-250, BetMGM)

If you’re looking for an outcome-independent market that can take advantage of either team’s ability to find the back of the net, this one is worth every ounce of consideration. The Flyers’ defensive zone issues from March have crept backup on the team in the majority of their last nine games. Philadelphia has seen the Over 1.5 Third Period Goals market hit in seven consecutive games and in eight of their last nine contests overall. Pittsburgh has seen the third period goals market pass 1.5 in six of their last nine games overall. In the seven matchups between these teams, the Over 1.5 Third Period Goals market has hit five times, including all three previous meetings at the Wells Fargo Center.

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Sidney Crosby to Record Over 1 Point (-136, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Penguins captain Sidney Crosby is well aware of where his team is in the standings and just how damaging another road loss to the Flyers could be in their quest to recapture the top seed in the East Division. With his highly-productive years beginning to wind down, getting that top seed and home ice advantage in the postseason could be critical as it pertains to his chances of hoisting Lord Stanley’s Cup.

Crosby has posted multiple points in 15 of 52 games this season, one of which came against the Flyers. Expect Crosby to lead an early charge to assert Pittsburgh’s dominance and crush whatever hopes Philadelphia has of winning consecutive games for the first time since March 29.

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Flyers vs. Penguins Prediction

Pick: Although Philadelphia pulled off a massive upset on Monday night, they haven’t won two games in a row since March 29. Their lone consistency this season has been inconsistency. Expect Pittsburgh to throw everything they have at Brian Elliott in a high-scoring contest. Take the Penguins to Win and Over 6.5 Goals.

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