Phillies vs. Blue Jays Odds, Prediction, Picks (May 15, 2021)

phillies blue jays pick prediction
PHOTO CREDIT: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

After snapping their nine-series winless streak that dated back to last season earlier this week, the Phillies now have a chance win consecutive road series tonight and guarantee themselves a winning nine-game road trip tonight in Dunedin. They will send Aaron Nola (3-2, 3.59 ERA) to the mound against the Blue Jays’ Anthony Kay (0-2, 10.24 ERA). The Phils seemingly have a distinct pitching advantage, but will Nola bounce back from a rough outing last weekend in Atlanta to lead his team to a win?

Let’s take a look at the Phillies vs. Blue Jays odds for the second game of a three-game weekend set and make a game prediction along with some betting picks.

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Phillies vs. Blue Jays Odds (May 15, 2021)

Here is a look at the current Phillies vs. Blue Jays odds for this May 15, 2021 matchup, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

TeamRun LineMoneylineTotal
Yankees-1.5 (+125)-132O 9 (-110)
Phillies+1.5 (-148)+114U 9 (-110)

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Phillies vs. Blue Jays Betting Prediction

Based on the short-term lore that has been built around TD Ballpark in Dunedin, Florida, last night’s 5-1 final score that did not see a single run plated until the bottom of the sixth inning was a complete anomaly. Forget the starting pitchers, much like you do with the Coors Field effect, as we should expect a shootout tonight in the humidity-laden bandbox on the peninsula’s Caribbean coast.

Let’s work through the mind-melting portion of this analysis first. The Phillies send ace Aaron Nola to the bump looking to bounce back from a subpar performance by his standards last time out against the Braves. The right-hander allowed five runs on just 58 pitches through four innings of work, including two home runs, in a 6-1 loss.

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Will Nola Rebound?

One would not necessarily expect another poor outing from Nola, given his star status. However, the last time he allowed five runs in an outing (last September), he returned five days later to last just 3 2/3 innings, giving up three runs. While that’s an extraordinarily small sample, it’s noting that it’s not a foregone conclusion he will deal tonight.

Since we made the comparison to Coors Field, it’s worth noting that Nola pitched at Coors this season and allowed four runs through seven innings (5.14 ERA) in a 7-5 victory, which would be plenty of runs for our total here. It’s hard to imagine a complete turnaround for Nola in this park tonight, as his road ERA this season is 6.14 in four starts and his evening ERA is 5.32 in the same amount of outings.

Two of Aaron Nola’s three career starts against Toronto sailed way over their posted total, as well as tonight’s number, reaching 13 and 15 total runs in those outings. The Blue Jays plated 21 of those 28 runs themselves, in fact.

An Advantageous Matchup

The Phillies will face Blue Jays left-hander, Anthony Kay, the second of an all-lefty set of arms to take the mound against Philadelphia in this series.

Kay has opened the season the way one eats hot soup — very slowly. His team has lost all three of his outings (two starts) with his opponents averaging six runs per game when he takes the hill.

He will be making just his fifth career start and has not completed more than four innings this season. That means we will be seeing plenty of a Toronto bullpen which sees its ERA spike from 3.08 overall to 3.88 at home. And when you have to toss five or six innings instead of two or three, that means your best guys aren’t the only ones your opponents will see. The Phils should get some pokes at some average arms tonight.

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This will be the left-hander’s first time taking the hill “at home” this season. He will face a Phillies team that has played 12 of its 20 games over the total after a win (60%). With a supporting Blue Jays cast that averages six runs per game on a field that averages 10.58 runs per game on the season, we expect to see some fireworks tonight.

In the head-to-head between these two clubs, entering this series, they had followed up each of the last four under games with a game that produced nine or more runs. Those four subsequent games averaged 13.8 runs per game.

Phillies vs. Blue Jays Pick

There are some trends that help us strong lean with the over tonight:

  • The Phillies have played over the total in five straight Saturday games.
  • Six of the Phillies’ last eight games have gone over when the total is posted between 9 and 10.5.
  • Toronto has played nine of its last 11 interleague home games over the total against above .500 teams.
  • The Blue Jays have played eight of their last 11 over after previously scoring two runs or less.

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