Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Prediction, Picks (May 7, 2021)

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PHOTO CREDIT: DALE ZANINE-USA TODAY SPORTS

Let’s take a look at the Phillies vs. Braves odds for the opening game of a three-game weekend set and make a game prediction along with some betting picks.

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Brewers vs. Phillies Odds (May 7, 2021)

Here is a look at the current Phillies vs. Braves odds for this May 7, 2021 matchup, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

TeamRun LineMoneylineTotal
Yankees-1.5 (+125)-132O 9 (-110)
Phillies+1.5 (-148)+114U 9 (-110)

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Phillies vs. Braves Betting Prediction

We were tempted to play an Atlanta -1 run line here to chop the price down a bit, but with Philly’s propensity to play one-run games of late (seven straight before their 2-0 win yesterday), we would rather lay the lumber and avert a push.

A ton of credit should go to the Phillies following a four-game sweep of the Brewers, but we have to play against them again tonight. They did what we had expected offensively yesterday, which was absolutely nothing against Milwaukee starter Brandon Woodruff. They had just one hit in the seventh before Alec Bohm took his aggression over a called strike two beyond the wall in right-center on the next pitch.

The Phils ended a week at home at 5-2. With three one-run wins and yesterday’s pitchers’ duel, a lot of energy was surely expended in front of the home crowd at Citizens Bank Park. We find it hard to believe the Phils will be able to hit the road, where they have notably struggled, with the same juice tonight.

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On the Road Again

Philadelphia is just 4-9 on the road this season, including losing two out of the three to the Braves in Atlanta last month. The Phils’ pitching staff struggled in that series, allowing at least five runs in all three games.

The Braves trail the Phillies by 1.5 games in the NL East, but enter with some momentum after a three-game sweep of the Nationals in the nation’s capital.

Atlanta sends RHP Charlie Morton to the mound to face Philly for the third time in this young season. Morton pitched well in both outings with a 3.27 ERA and no home runs allowed, but he especially excelled in the home start, allowing just one run on four hits over six innings in an 8-1 Braves victory.

Morton has always been a better home pitcher throughout his career. He is 12 games over .500 at home with a lifetime 3.54 ERA against seven games below .500 on the road with a career 4.72 ERA. May has also been his best month statistically, as he boasts a career 3.50 ERA, over half a run better than any other month.

Current Phillies have hit fairly well off of Morton (28-for-97, .289), but he has only allowed one home run in those 97 at-bats, while walking just eight batters. This season, the long ball is the major threat in run production, as hitting is way down, so these splits are encouraging for Braves’ backers, especially knowing that Atlanta leads the league in team home runs with 44 thus far.

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Until He Does It…

The Phillies send a right-hander of their own to the hill in Zach Eflin, who has been reliable overall, but has been far more hittable in his last three starts than he was in his first three appearances this season. Eflin’s three most recent starts have seen him allow 26 hits in 18 2/3 innings pitched, compared to just 17 hits in 20 innings in those first three starts. The Phils have lost each of the righty’s last two starts, also dropping his outing in Atlanta earlier this season when he allowed four runs in a 5-4 loss.

The Phils have lost both of Eflin’s road starts this season, as he has allowed nine runs in just 12 2/3 innings pitched (6.39 ERA). This has been a microcosm of his career, as he has a lifetime 5.27 road ERA, against just a 3.87 ERA at home.

The Phillies, who are 16-36 in their last 52 road games and 22-57 in their last 79 as road dogs, have won just nine of their last 34 away games against right-handed pitching.

Philly is also just 6-14 in their last 20 games after scoring two runs or less and 5-16 against teams who just allowed two or less (Atlanta won 3-2 yesterday). The Phils have also lost each of their last six games after giving up two runs or less.

As a contrast to the above, Atlanta has won 60 of its last 88 as a home favorite and 38 of their last 56 at home against teams with above .500 records.

They have won 35 of their last 52 against teams entering having allowed two runs or less, like the Phils ahead of this one, and have taken 12 of the last 16 after allowing two or less in their previous game.

Phillies vs. Braves Pick

Interestingly, the Braves have also come out victorious in four of their last five tries when returning home after a road trip of a week or more. Look for tonight to make it six Atlanta wins in the last eight head-to-head meetings at Truist Park.

Our Pick: Atlanta -148 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

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