For a Phillies team that has suffered a number of excruciating losses over the years, last night’s 8-7 setback to the Braves may have cracked the top five most regular ridiculous defeats in recent memory. It’s May, it’s one game, but, man. Three blown leads over the final four innings spoiled a stellar starting pitching performance and some clutch hitting, gift wrapping the Braves what could be a key early-season game. The Phillies will turn to Aaron Nola tonight in an effort to rebound and secure a series victory. He will be opposed by Braves right-hander Huascar Ynoa.
Let’s take a look at the Phillies vs. Braves odds for the final game of a three-game weekend set and make a game prediction along with some betting picks.
Brewers vs. Phillies Odds (May 9, 2021)
Here is a look at the current Phillies vs. Braves odds for this May 9, 2021 matchup, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
|Yankees||-1.5 (+125)||-132||O 9 (-110)|
|Phillies||+1.5 (-148)||+114||U 9 (-110)|
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Phillies vs. Braves Betting Prediction
Well, if you were a Phillies fan who endured yet another tragic loss last night, I hope you were at least able to join us and cash in on that run line victory, because it might be the only thing that allowed you to get any sleep. A blown two-run lead in the bottom of the ninth and then a blown three-run lead in the bottom of the twelfth ruined the Phils’ shot for seven wins in a row and a sweep of the Braves in Atlanta. Now, they must try to rebound and win the Sunday night rubber match on ESPN.
For much of the country, the knee jerk reaction might be to come right back with the Phillies and their ace, Aaron Nola, here, getting the star at a cheap price. But Phillies fans know that the ineptitude of this bullpen knows no bounds and it would not be beneath them to cough up another late lead here tonight and turn the knife just a little more.
The Other Guy Is Good
We prefer a different approach here. After two high-scoring affairs that produced 14 and 15 runs, we are going to settle in for what we think might be a pitchers’ duel tonight. Nola will face off against Hector Ynoa, who is 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA and 0.90 WHIP this season. Both pitchers know their bullpens are absolute collective wretches and the onus to win tonight will likely center around the starters’ ability to pitch deep and perhaps never let the bullpen door swing open at all.
Ynoa is pitching in the perfect scenario here tonight based on his splits. He is 2-0 in three home starts with a 1.56 ERA and 3-0 in five night starts with a 0.92 ERA. He also enters off a dominating seven-inning performance in his last outing where he allowed just one unearned run on four hits in a 6-1 victory over the Nationals.
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Ynoa has allowed four hits and two runs or less in five of his six starts this season, lasting five or more innings in each of those. He impressively can lay claim to three starts already with zero earned runs allowed. His lone start against the Phillies came last summer and resulted in a 5-2 final that cashed the under that day. He threw a scoreless inning against Philly in the first series this season and current Phillies are just 4-for-18 (.222) against the right-hander, oddly, all doubles.
Nola Has Been Rolling
Nola’s reputation precedes him, but we should still note the excellent start he has had to the 2021 season. With the exception of a seven-inning, four-run performance at Coors Field, each of Nola’s starts has seen him allow three runs or less. Six of his last eight starts that took place outside of Colorado have ended with seven or less total runs scored.
The Phils’ righty already helped his team beat the Braves 3-2 this season and boasts a 2.89 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.
He averages 6 1/3 innings pitched per start and we expect him to own the spotlight tonight in a nationally televised affair against one of the few teams he has struggled against in his career. For Nola, struggling means, in this case, seeing the Braves hit .250 (50-for-200) off of him with nine home runs. If Ronald Acuna is forced to miss tonight after leaving last night’s game, that’s a huge bat out of the Braves’ lineup, as well as a bat that has produced .360 career average (9-for-25) with two home runs against Nola out of his way.
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Some Trends to Know
The Phillies average less total runs per game (8.50) after a loss than their overall average of 8.53, while the Braves see less total runs per game (8.38) after a win than their season average of 9.79. The Phils have tallied four unders in their last five games after a loss.
Philadelphia has also cashed the under in four of their last five road games with totals set between 7 and 8.5 runs. They have also stayed under the total in seven of their last nine games as road favorites.
Coincidentally, the Braves have played seven of their last 10 games under as a dog.
Tonight should be about two hot starters pitching in a big spot with a national audience, both knowing full well that leaving the game with a lead does not guarantee leaving the stadium with a win. I fully expect both to shine and also believe that Nola is due for another push for a complete game. This game feels big and I think both righties will perform accordingly in a low-scoring duel.
Phillies vs. Braves Pick
Our Pick: Phi/Atl Under 8 (FanDuel -112)
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