Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Prediction, Picks (May 12, 2021)

phillies nationals odds picks prediction

After winning the opener of a three-game set against the Nationals on Tuesday night, the Phillies will look to secure their first road series victory since last August and put an end to their nine-series winless streak. It would seem they have the right guy on the mound as the Zack Wheeler will take the ball fresh off a complete game shutout of the Brewers last week. Wheeler has a 1.88 ERA over his last three starts. He will be opposed by Jon Lester, who will make his third start of the season and comes in with a fantastic track record against the Phils.

Let’s take a look at the Phillies vs. Nationals odds for the second game of a three-game set and make a game prediction along with some betting picks.

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Phillies vs. Nationals Odds (May 12, 2021)

Here is a look at the current Phillies vs. Nationals odds for this May 12, 2021 matchup, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

TeamRun LineMoneylineTotal
Yankees-1.5 (+125)-132O 9 (-110)
Phillies+1.5 (-148)+114U 9 (-110)

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Phillies vs. Nationals Betting Prediction

Despite some questionable managerial decisions and continued poor hitting with runners in scoring position, the Phillies did enough to get the win in the series opener in Washington last night. Now, Philadelphia sends Wheeler to the mound in hopes of securing the series win ahead of tomorrow’s afternoon finale.

Both the public and Phillies fans alike will be enamored with Wheeler and the short price tag he carries today. After all, he is fresh off beating Brandon Woodruff in a complete game 2-0 victory over the Brewers last time out, helping the Phils cap a four-game sweep. However, the objective bettor will quickly see there is cause for concern here for those backing the Phillies.

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No Support

First, the Phillies are just 3-4 in Wheeler’s starts this season and have yet to win consecutive starts by him. In his three wins, his teammates have only given him eight total runs of support (2.67 rpg). That’s a dip from an already poor overall level of run support for the righty on the season (just three runs per game).

If you focus on his three road starts, you also discover that Wheeler has received one, one, and two runs of support, respectively.

It’s tough to ask a guy to go out and throw quality start after quality start every time out just to have any shot of being in the game. As proof, bettors should note that the Phillies have lost each of Wheeler’s last five starts after he put up a quality start in his last outing.

A further buzzkill for Philly backers is Wheeler’s career numbers against the Nationals. The right-hander is just 6-11 with a 4.64 ERA in 20 starts against Washington. His team has lost three of his last four starts in Washington and he has not lasted beyond the sixth inning in any of those outings.

Current Nationals have hit .249 (42-for-169) lifetime against Wheeler. However, Trea Turner, Victor Robles, and Josh Bell have combined to go 17-for-53 (.321). Even slumping Juan Soto has reached base in 11 of his 32 career plate appearances against the Phils’ starter.

A History of Success

Lester will be making just his third start of the season after being a part of the Nats’ early-season COVID-19 issues. He has lasted just five innings in each of his two starts, but he has produced an impressive 2.70 ERA with no home runs allowed. A shorter outing tonight wouldn’t be the end of the world, as the Nats’ pen is high quality.

The key with Lester tonight is his exceptional history against the Phillies. He is 8-1 with a 1.92 ERA in 11 career starts against Philadelphia. He has allowed two runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts against the Phils, including six starts in which he allowed one run or less.

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Betting Trends to Know

The Phillies have failed to win even one-third of their last 53 road games and are still just 6-11 away from Citizens Bank Park this season. They are just 4-9 in their last 13 games as a road favorite and just 2-5 in their last seven road outings against left-handed starters.

The Phils have won just one of their last eight games after allowing two runs or less previously, while also going just 4-9 in their last 13 games after scoring five or more runs.

The Nationals, despite their slow start, have won four of their last five home games against righty starters. They also get up against good starters, having won eight of their last 11 against hurlers with sub 1.15 WHIPs.

The Nats have won 19 of their last 27 home games against above .500 teams and have ripped off five wins in their last seven games against teams that have scored five or more runs in their last game.

Philly has beaten Washington by one run twice in their last 10 meetings and lead MLB with nine one-run wins already this season, so this extra level of protection with the run line could pay dividends. In fact, Washington already has five one-run losses this season, despite playing five less games than most of the league.

Phillies vs. Nationals Pick

Philadelphia may be 8-3 in its last 11 overall head-to-head meetings with Washington, but the reality is that the Phillies are just 4-12 in their last 16 against them at Nationals Park.

Protect yourself with the extra run and expect another close game for the Phillies tonight.

Our Pick: Washington +1.5 (PointsBet -140)

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