Red Sox vs. Phillies Odds, Prediction, Picks (May 21, 2021)
Let’s take a look at the Red Sox vs. Phillies betting odds and make some betting picks for the first game of a three-game weekend set.
Red Sox vs. Phillies Odds (May 21, 2021)
Here is a look at the current Red Sox vs. Phillies odds for this May 21, 2021 matchup, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | -1.5 (+125) | -132 | O 9 (-110) |
| Phillies | +1.5 (-148) | +114 | U 9 (-110) |
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Red Sox vs. Phillies Pick
It’s a spot like this where an ace earns that title.
For Aaron Nola, it’s time to step up and be that guy, as the Phillies are in dire need of an emphatic statement from their top starter. The bats have gone cold again for a lineup that mustered just two hits on their way to getting shut out by Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins. That backed up a one-run output by the team the night before, making it five times in the last 10 games that Philadelphia has scored just a single run or less.
It’s Time
Despite dropping their third home series of the season with last night’s loss, the Phillies still have a strong 14-8 home record. Interestingly, the Phillies are 6-1 in Game 1 of series at home this season and a perfect 7-0 in Game 1 after a loss. The team has also wildly won seven straight Game 1 of series overall.
Aaron Nola’s ERA won’t dazzle you, but his WHIP is still a solid 1.09 and his Phillies are 4-0 in his home starts, where he boasts a 1.40 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP.
The Phillies generously give their ace 4.8 runs per game at home, well above their 4.23 rpg average at Citizens Bank Park. That run support will be important here, as Nola has only received five total runs in his three combined starts against Boston in his career. Luckily, the righty has been dominant in those outings, lasting seven or more innings each time. His 1.64 ERA against Boston would be very welcome today, with the offense being so erratic of late. Current Red Sox have gone just 13-for-60 (.217) lifetime against Nola, striking out a third of the time, with Kike Hernandez being the only roster member to breakthrough with a home run against him.
Boston will counter with LHP Martin Perez, who reached six innings in a game last time out for the first time this season.
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The Phils actually got a look at Perez last September when he allowed four runs and six walks in just five innings in a 6-5 Phillies win. Current Philadelphia position players have gone 20-for-76 (.263) off of Perez, with Brad Miller, Andrew McCutchen, and Jean Segura having seen him a good amount in their stints in the American League.
As any Philly fan knows, a huge knock on this lineup is the amount they strikeout. The Phillies strikeout the third most of any team in MLB this season (10.2 Ks per game), including 15 times last night alone. Fortunately for them, Perez has only averaged 4.3 strikeouts per outing across his last nine starts.
Surprising Success
The Phillies have won three of the last four series openers against Boston. They have also won five straight home games against teams with above .500 records. The team has also taken five of its last seven interleague home games against left-handed starters.
With the Phils off the 6-0 loss last night, we can employ the fact that the team is 5-1 in its last six games after allowing five or more runs. They will look to move to 10-4 in their last 14 games after a loss.
Thursday’s loss was the first home shutout against the Phils this season. They were only shutout at CBP three other times in the previous two seasons. In the subsequent games, Philly averaged eight runs per game. Anything close to that today should be more than enough for Nola.
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Red Sox vs. Phillies Prediction
With their ace on the hill here at home where he and the team are so strong, we think the Phils step up and get back to winning ways.
Our Pick: Philadelphia -160 (PointsBet)
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