Sixers vs. Rockets Odds, Prediction, Pick (May 5, 2021)
The Sixers’ bench tried its best to blow another lead on Monday night, but the starters came back into the game late to help preserve the win. Joel Embiid and company not only sealed the victory in the second leg of back-to-back games, but also managed to steal a late cover for Sixers’ bettors. Now, they take the floor tonight fresh off a break in the schedule to take on one of the NBA’s worst teams in the Houston Rockets.
Let’s take a closer look at the top Sixers vs. Rockets game picks and make some predictions for this May 5, 2021 matchup.
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On paper, the heavily-favored Sixers should have a bit of a cupcake tonight. They opened as 14.5-point favorites on the road at Houston for tonight’s game (down to 13). With Brooklyn’s second straight loss to the Bucks last night, the Sixers now have a chance to open their lead atop the East to 1 1/2 games with a win here.
Will Philly look past tonight after the two mental drains earlier this week, or will the Sixers take care of business early in the hopes of giving those stars some welcome rest in the second half? Their approach will likely determine which sides cash tonight, so let’s get into it.
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Sixers vs. Rockets Pick (May 5, 2021)
The 76ers have hit a weird patch of schedule right now where they are about to tip off as favorites of 7.5 points or more for the sixth straight time, despite having lost four in a row just before this stretch. Philly won each of the previous five in this run, opening up massive leads in each game, but giving that lead back in the last two, only to win late.
They covered the spread in four of the five games, sporting a 22.2 point margin of victory in those five wins. The Sixers also scored 120+ points three times in those five games, while holding three of the opponents to less than 100 points, making tonight’s total a potentially tricky undertaking.
Philadelphia visits a Rockets team that, much like San Antonio and Chicago earlier this week, won’t be putting many household names out on the court tonight. Most of its quality talent has been traded away or is currently injured, with Christian Wood’s questionable status being the closest Houston comes to having a starting-caliber player on the court.
Houston has lost five of their last 10 games by 20 points or more, but somehow beat the Bucks last week as massive underdogs.
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Sixers vs. Rockets Odds
Here’s the line for the Sixers and Rockets at DraftKings Sportsbook:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawks | +7 (-108) | +240 | O 215.5 (-112) |
| Sixers | -7 (-113) | -295 | U 215.5 (-109) |
And here are the current best available odds for the Sixers (may not display on Google AMP pages):
Bets We Like Independent of Outcome
Philadelphia 76ers to Score 120+ Points (PointsBet +105)
Large spreads give a bettor the opportunity to zoom in on a very specific sample size of games where one team is completely outclassed, at least on paper, by the other. The Sixers have been favorites of more than 12 points twice thus far this season, topping 120 points each time.
Houston has sadly been in this role of underdogs of moree than 12 points six times already this season and has given up 120 or more points in each of its last five times in this role. The time they did not, they allowed 114 points to Utah as 19-point dogs. In those six games, the Rockets gave up an average of 126.3 points per game.
Houston has allowed 26 of their 65 opponents this season to tally 120 or more points (40.0%) with another five reaching 118 or 119 points. In fact, 12 of the Rockets’ last 20 foes have topped 120 points (60.0%).
Philly has scored 120 or more in a slightly less convincing 18 of 65 games thus far (27.7%), but does have another nine games where they tallied 117, 118, or 119. This means they have played 27 of their 65 games within a basket of cashing this prop bet (41.5%).
The 76ers have been jumping out early on these weaker teams recently, and with the day of rest yesterday coupled with the recent history of blowing big leads, I’d expect them to want to sure this one up as early as possible before letting the reserves get in there and keep the pressure up.
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Remember, the Sixers are still the ninth-fastest pace of play team in the league and Houston is bottom five in the NBA in points allowed, field goal percentage allowed, and three-point field goal percentage allowed.
There should be ample opportunity for Philadelphia to top 120 points tonight.
Bets We Like With a Sixers Win
Wire to Wire – Philadelphia 76ers (PointsBet -165)
Remember, to win this prop bet, the 76ers must be leading at the end of each quarter, including, obviously, the end of the game. Yes, you are laying a bit of lumber to buy this chance, but how can you not in this scenario? You have a fast-starting team who has been chewing up bad teams lately, one that is finally healthy and entering after a day off. One would think they will be motivated to finish what they start tonight after nearly blowing two huge leads Sunday and Monday nights.
It would be hard to imagine Houston pulling off another double digit-dog outright victory after doing so just last week against Milwaukee. The Sixers cannot afford any losses as they look to lock up the top seed in the East, while the Rockets just don’t have the weapons to truly threaten Philly. So, if the win itself can be assumed, the other question we have to answer is, can Philly start fast enough to build a lead they won’t relinquish throughout the game?
That answer should be yes, as Philly has been red hot from the opening tip for quite some time now. The Sixers have led at the end of the first quarter in nine of their last 10 wins. Philly won the wire-to-wire prop bet in each of those nine games mentioned, so if they get that first quarter lead, we can feel safe that they will hold it.
The Sixers are unlikely to rest with a big lead tonight, as they nearly blew each of their last two games against inferior opponents after having commanding leads in the second half. Expect them to finish what they start tonight.
One other note on this play. Houston has trailed at the end of the first quarter in 10 of its last 11 losses, going on to trail at the end of each quarter in eight of those. Expect another hot start from the Sixers tonight, who outclass the Rockets at every position and have a more talented bench should this become a garbage time game late.
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Sixers vs. Rockets Prediction
We liked the value on this a bunch at the open where you could find the Rockets as high as +15, but big money has come in early on Houston, driving the line down to as low as +12.5 at the time this article was written. As always, shop around for the best possible line, but we think the +13 or so that you can find at most online sportsbooks right now should be enough in this one.
Yes, we expect the Sixers to be able to top 120 points in this one. However, what has also become a trademark of this Philadelphia team has been a porous defense, blown leads, and playing down to weaker opponents. Much of this is understandable, given the many and varied lineups the 76ers have had to use in the last month due to most of their stars missing time due to injury or illness.
Their continuity has returned, but now they are trying to balance getting everyone healthy with ensuring victories in a current five-game in seven-day span. Something has to give at points, as we saw when their reserves coughed up a 21-5 run in a matter of minutes the other night at Chicago. You don’t get any bonus points for blowing teams out, so the path of least resistance is the optimal one for the Sixers each night until the end of the regular season.
A win by eight points here counts the same as a win by 28. In a league where big leads disappear all the time, we have to take the generous spot and hope that Houston can hang around, despite sporting an inferior lineup.
Catching a Sixers team trying to get healthy and just sneak away with a win before back-to-back games Friday and Saturday might be the Rockets’ best shot to be competitive and show some pride before the sun finally sets on this forgettable season for a transitioning franchise.
Houston also had two days off to prepare for this one, a rarity in today’s league. They are 2-1 straight up in three games in that role this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 112-107. They won both of the games on two days rest in which the opposition entered on one day of rest, like Philadelphia does tonight.
ATS Pick
In the recent head-to-head history, the Sixers have won just four of the last 10 meetings. Only two of those wins came by double digits. Just eight of the Sixers’ 19 road wins have come by more than this spread, while 11 of Houston’s 26 home losses have come by more than 14 points.
The odds are still in our favor and we have to take the generous donation of points here in a look-ahead spot for Philly.
Our Pick: Houston +13 (DraftKings -110)
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