The Numbers (And Your Eyes) Don't Lie When It Comes to Phils' Brutal Defense
For about, I don’t know, 30 minutes last night, it looked like the Phillies might win their second straight game with just two runs on the board. It looked like a spectacular home run robbery by Odúbel Herrera would help make those two runs stand up.
Of course, that did not happen. It did not happen, at least in part, because the Phillies again failed to execute a routine play during a fateful eighth inning which saw their lead, and the game, slip away.
What appeared to be a surefire double-play ball off the bat of Adam Duvall only produced a single out after Brad Miller spiked the feed to second baseman Jean Segura. With an extra out gifted, the Marlins made the Phillies pay following a pair of two-out run-scoring singles that proved to be the difference.
While the inability to turn two set up the dagger, it did not stand alone as the Phillies’ only defensive gaffe of the night. A passed ball, a dropped pop-up in foul ground, and a casual lob back into the infield after a base-hit that conceded an extra base each combined to create the latest night of embarrassing defensive baseball.
Look up at the sky today and see that it’s blue — there’s no need for any further evidence to validate the obvious.
Watch the Phillies play for a game or two, and it’s pretty much the same deal. There’s just not much need for statistical analysis to validate the obvious — this is a bad, bad defensive baseball team.
But let’s do the numbers anyway.
Take the “defensive runs saved” metric from Sports Info Solutions that Jayson Stark of The Athletic referenced earlier this morning:
The #Phillies are now at minus-29 Defensive Runs Saved, last in MLB, according to @SportsInfo_SIS.
Next-worst NL team: The #Cubs at minus-1.
Next-worst NL East team: The #Braves at plus-8!#Nats & #Mets rank 1st & 3rd, at plus-32 & plus-30.
— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) May 27, 2021
If you’re thinking this is a small sample size, you shouldn’t be. The Phillies also rank dead-last in DRS dating back to last season, so tack another 60 games onto the data set.
By position, the Phillies rank 30th in DRS at third base, 29th at shortstop, 29th in left field, 27th both in right field and at catcher, tied with four other teams for 23rd at first base, and 16th at second base.
Know the one position they’re getting above average production?
Odubel Herrera pulls it right off the top of the fence!! 👀
He robs the Marlins of a run 💪
(via @Phillies) pic.twitter.com/w7ayGmwqeC
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) May 27, 2021
Indeed, their center fielders (which includes the cumulative play of Roman Quinn, Adam Haseley, Scott Kingery, Mickey Moniak and Herrera) have produced the second best DRS at the position this season. Go figure.
Personally, I think there are a few variables in play:
- The Phillies lack defensive talent at numerous positions.
- The complete absence of organizational depth at the major league level creates complacency.
- Some guys are pressing. When certain struggles become the story, the struggles snowball, pressing occurs.
The problem is, so many of the Phillies’ defensive lapses aren’t about talent. Many of these misplays are not about a lack of range or an inability to make the difficult play, such plays are about a consistent inability to make the routine play.
Obviously, the second and third points above somewhat contradict one another, but both issues can simultaneously exist. One player may be feeling too secure in a role, the other too insecure.
Here’s the exchange I had with Phils manager Joe Girardi about his team’s woeful defense following last night’s game:
Never a good thing for a baseball team when defense remains a persistent storyline.
I asked Joe Girardi about it last night. pic.twitter.com/dJn9bQnegq
— Bob Wankel (@Bob_Wankel) May 27, 2021
Girardi defended the overall accountability and effort, which is to be expected, but here’s the part that stuck out to me:
There’s a lot of things, but, I mean, for us, we’re positive all the time and we’re optimistic that it’s gonna get better. I mean, this is a hard game. I mean, some of these plays [pause] are not hard, but some of them are difficult plays.
I couldn’t help but notice the pause. It lasted 2-3 seconds. He knows what’s he watching right now. I also think he knows there’s not much he can do about it.