The Philadelphia 76ers begin their playoff series with the Washington Wizards at the Wells Fargo Center Sunday afternoon. The East’s No. 1 seed will have to find ways to slow down the dynamic guard tandem of Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal who could enter play in rhythm after earning the No. 8 seed via a play-in victory. The Sixers swept the head-to-head series with the Wizards, although Washington did cover two of the meetings against the spread, both on this court.

Let’s take a closer look at the top Wizards vs. Sixers Game 1 odds and make some picks for this May 23, 2021 matchup.

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Despite an injury list that, at the time this was written, shows Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Danny Green, and Matisse Thybulle all as questionable, the Sixers should end up sending close to a full-strength lineup to the court for this one.


The question will be, however, if Philly can to find its rhythm on the fly since it has not played a meaningful game in nine days since clinching the Eastern Conference’s top spot in the penultimate game of the regular season.

Philadelphia’s stellar play at home this season (29-7) might be enough on its own to overcome the team’s extended break from competitive play, especially against a Wizards team that was just 15-22 away from home, including a play-in loss at Boston Tuesday night.

The stark contrast in styles between Washington’s third-ranked scoring offense (116.6 points per game) and Philadelphia’s sixth ranked scoring-defense (108.1 points per game allowed) creates an interesting dynamic in this series for fans and bettors alike.

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Wizards vs. Sixers Game 1 Odds (May 23, 2021)

Here’s the line for the Wizards and Sixers at DraftKings Sportsbook:

Team Run Line Moneyline Total
Hawks +7 (-108) +240 O 215.5 (-112)
Sixers -7 (-113) -295 U 215.5 (-109)

And here are the current best available odds for the Sixers (may not display on Google AMP pages):

Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Washington Wizards Over 20.5 Points in Each Quarter (William Hill -167)

The Sixers have been fast starters since getting their starters back (mostly) healthy a few weeks ago. We believe their ability to start quickly in the first quarter will set the tone for this game. Washington should be able to counter Philly’s typical quick productivity, using the advantage they own from having played two games since Philly last took the court (in a game that meant nothing, to boot).

During the final 16 games of the season in which the Sixers played a lot of good basketball with quality first quarters, they still allowed 21 or more points 13 times. Philly also allowed 21 or more points in the first quarter in all three games they played on three or more days of rest.

Interestingly, Washington has scored 21 or more points in the first quarter in 26 straight games.

So, if their rhythm allows them to do so again here, what about the rest of the game? Well, the Sixers’ Kryptonite against inferior opponents has not been getting a sizable lead, it has been keeping one. They blew numerous leads of 15+ points as favorites of five or more points in the final stretch of the season, hanging on to win most of the games, but laboring through the middle and late stages of games.

The Wizards rarely fail to top 20 points in a quarter. They have reached 20 or more points in a quarter in 18 of their last 19 games with just a single regular season quarter in that stretch producing exactly 20 points. Washington also reached at least 21 points in the final three quarters in 11 of their 12 games as underdogs of 7-9.5 points this season.

Washington averages over 28 points in each quarter on the season, while the Sixers allow 25.5 or more in each quarter themselves. We expect this game to be high-scoring and Washington to be able to get off to a hot start right away.

They should have every opportunity to hit 21 or more per quarter to cash this prop.

 

Click here to get the 76ers over the Wizards at 76-1 odds with FOX Bet PA. Get it in NJ by clicking here.

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Wizards vs. Sixers Game 1 Pick

We described why we believe both teams will have a chance to set the tone for a high-scoring affair here in Game 1. Reinforcing that is the fact that the first quarter is the highest for the Sixers (29.5 points) and the worst for Washington defensively (31.1 points). The Wizards should hold their own, as they average 29.3 points per first quarter on the season.

If the tone is set as such, points should flow throughout. The Wizards frontcourt is ill-equipped to slow down league MVP finalist, Embiid, as he topped 50 points in his one game against backup big, Daniel Gafford. Starter Alex Len isn’t a huge step up. However, the Sixers struggle to contain slashing guards who can also shoot. Beal should have a field day and Westbrook will likely free up Davis Bertans for endless open looks from deep.

Philadelphia averaged 127 points per game against the league-worst Wizards’ scoring defense (118.5 points per game against) this season. There is no reason that should change here on their home court where they dropped 141 the last time they hosted Washington. They should have the extra push with fans now in the seats, as well.

A particularly enticing detail that certainly lends to our belief that this one should sail over the total is the free throw story.

Washington commits the second most fouls per game in the NBA, with Philly the eighth most. That’s quite surprising for such a quality defense, but this all means nothing if they don’t get to the line as well.

That said, Washington and Philadelphia get to the line the second and third most of any team in the league. That’s a lot of whistles, a lot of stopped clock, and a lot of free points. Neither team shoots it at a high rate from the line, but two of the guys likely to spend the most time there, Beal and Embiid, both shoot it well at over 85% on the season from the stripe.

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Betting Trends to Know

  • Philadelphia has played 21 of its 35 home games over the total (60%).
  • The Sixers have also played 11 of their 16 games as favorites of 7.5-9.5 over (68.8%), while the Wizards played six of their nine games as dogs of the same over (66.7%).
  • The Wizards also played 19 of 34 games after a win (55.9%) and 19 of 31 against above .500 opponents over the posted number (61.3%).
  • The Sixers’ three games on three or more days of rest this season averaged 226 points per game, easily their highest of any rest period. In fact, going back to last year, they have played five of their last six games on that rest over the number. Four of their last five as a home favorite sailed above the number, as well.
  • Washington, which put up 142 on Indiana Thursday night, has played four straight over the total after scoring 125 or more in its previous game. It also should help that the Wizards have played five of their last six over as a road dog.
  • The  Wizards have two days of rest before this one and have gone over the number in 54 of the last 78 on that rest (69.2%).
  • Lastly, playing elite competition tends to mean high-scoring games for Washington in recent seasons, as they have played 40 of their last 59 games over against above .600 opponents (67.8%).

Game 1 Prediction

Expect the unique circumstances under which this series begins to help produce the eighth result over the posted total in the last 10 meetings between these two teams here in Philadelphia.

Betting Pick: Wizards-Sixers OVER

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