Wizards vs. Sixers Game 2 Odds, Pick, Prediction (May 26, 2021)
The Philadelphia 76ers weathered early Joel Embiid foul trouble to hold off the Washington Wizards in Game 1 on Sunday afternoon. Tobias Harris led the way with 38 points, 28 of which came in the first half, as the Sixers outran a predictably slow start, having not played a meaningful game for nine days. Conversely, Washington entered the series in game shape, playing two play-in games to attain the Eastern Conference’s No. 8 seed.
Let’s take a closer look at the top Wizards vs. Sixers Game 2 odds and make some picks for this May 26, 2021 matchup.
Which team stands to gain the most from the two days off following the Sixers’ win in the opener? Will we see another high-scoring affair? We have combed numerous popular sportsbooks to find some high-value wager options for bettors in tonight’s Game 2, so let’s jump into some of our best bets.
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Wizards vs. Sixers Game 2 Odds (May 26, 2021)
Here’s the Game 2 odds for the Wizards and Sixers at DraftKings Sportsbook:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawks | +7 (-108) | +240 | O 215.5 (-112) |
| Sixers | -7 (-113) | -295 | U 215.5 (-109) |
And here are the current best available odds for the Sixers (may not display on Google AMP pages):
Sixers Bets We Like with a Philadelphia Win
Philadelphia 76ers -4.5 AND Under 227.5 Total Points (FanDuel Sportsbook +220)
This parlay prop shaves a touch off the spread, making for an easier Sixers’ cover, but it does make the under play a couple points more difficult. Since we like the under in this game regardless, we will risk the couple points to improve the Sixers’ line.
We were reminded in Game 1 how difficult it can be for a favorite to cover these higher single-digit spreads, as Washington covered an eight-point final line with their seven-point loss.
First, however, let’s discuss the Sixers’ chances of winning the game, in general.
Washington’s best hope to land a punch was in Game 1. They had the momentum from having played two play-in games before taking on a Philadelphia team that hadn’t had a game that meant something for over a week. They were fortunate enough to see Embiid collect his third personal foul early in the second quarter. They were also able to come out loose, as they were playing with house money. Yet, none of it mattered.
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Those advantages are now gone. They will be aware that a slip-up tonight sends them home down two games to the Eastern Conference’s top team, a group that spanked them by 26 on their home court in the only meeting there this year.
Embiid is unlikely to see three quick fouls again tonight and the Wizards are wholly incapable of shooting 56% from the field again like the did in Game 1. The Sixers shot significantly below their season average from three-point range and from the foul line on Sunday — and they still won the game by seven points.
With the home crowd support and Washington having no answer for Embiid inside, I don’t see how Philly can lose this one.
Harris’ big Game 1 will draw more attention his way, freeing up Simmons and Embiid, setting the 76ers up for a potential statement game that echoes what Brooklyn did to the Celtics last night.
Buying Some Value
This wager makes the goal number for Philly to cover a far more manageable five, something we believe the Sixers can handle, as they did not play a ton of nail biters this season.
Only eight of the 76ers’ 50 wins this season came by four points or less (16%), with three of those coming in overtime games. However, 13 of their wins did come by five, six, seven, or eight points (26%), the final margins we are leap-frogging around with this prop bet. That means, based on this season’s results, we are improving our chances of covering the spread portion of the wager by 26 percent over the original line at many legal online sportsbooks.
Even more wild is the fact that all three of Philly’s wins over Washington here at home this season were decided by five to seven points, all numbers we avoid with this prop. In fact, nine of the team’s 13 wins by five to eight points this year came here on the Wells Fargo Center court.
Regarding the total end of this prop bet, we will discuss the ins and outs of why we like the under in more depth in the next section, but let us here discuss why we are fine with shrinking the number down from its posted 230.5 in many houses to a tougher 227.5.
The Sixers only played six games this season with a final score totaling 228, 229, or 230 total points, the numbers we lose with this prop. Only two of those six came at home across 37 games.
Even more wild, given they score more and allow more per game and, thus, are more likely to have higher total scores, Washington only saw four of their 75 games this season land between 228 and 230 total points. That means, with regard to the Wizards, you only bump up your risk 5.3%. A one basket difference and roughly 5% greater risk seems worth it in this spot.
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Wizards vs. Sixers Game 2 Pick
After the back-and-forth affair that was Game 1, some bettors will be hesitant to jump on with a bet for under the total points, especially seeing the number rise as much as two and a half points from the closing total for Sunday’s game. However, we think a points regression is only logical here and are happy to take this generously high number.
We mentioned already how Washington shot an absurd 56% from the field in Game 1. That is just not a replicable feat, especially for a team that was eighth-worst in the NBA from deep this season, knowing they will likely need to shoot a bunch of threes tonight to keep pace. These two teams also rank just 19th and 20th in the league in foul shot percentage, meaning some points should be left out on the floor. This was on display in Game 1 when the Sixers missed 10 of their 33 free throws (69.7%). And we have to imagine a regression in attempts for Philly, as well, given they averaged 25.6 trips to the line this season, still third-best in the NBA.
For being the third-best scoring offense and the worst scoring defense this season, Washington still only played 38 of its 72 regular season games over tonight’s number in regulation (52.8%). That may seem somewhat high, but consider that they have to do it again in a span of four days against a Philly defense that ranks among the top 10 in most defensive categories, including the sixth-best scoring defense.
Betting Trends to Know
Meanwhile, Philadelphia only played 22 of their 72 regular season games over this number (30.5%), which is not the most intimidating stat.
Philly played six of its eight games on two days of rest under the posted total this year, including each of their last four. They both scored (106.8) and allowed (103.9) their least points on that amount of any rest period. If Ben Simmons locks down on defense tonight like the masterclass he put in on Game 1, there’s no reason to think Philly can’t hold the Wizards to a similar number under 110 total points.
Washington has tended to buckle down a bit defensively after a loss this season, playing 21 of their 38 games in that role under the total (55.3%). Philly likes to keep it low-scoring after a missed cover, having played just three of their 15 games over the total after an ATS loss (20%).
Game 2 Prediction
Expect tonight to be a return to normal for the 76ers in the postseason, as they had played six of their last seven playoff games under the total as favorites entering this series.
Betting pick: Was/Phi Under 230 (FanDuel Sportsbook -112)
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