On Friday night, the Dallas Mavericks will play host to the Los Angeles Clippers for Game 6 of their first round series in the Western Conference playoffs.
Let’s take a closer look at the top Clippers vs. Mavericks Game 6 player prop picks and make some predictions for this June 4, 2021 NBA Playoffs matchup.
Clippers vs. Mavericks Game 6 Player Props (June 4, 2021)
One of the preseason favorites to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy enters Friday night’s Game 6 on the brink of elimination as Kawhi Leonard and Paul George lead the Los Angeles Clippers into the American Airlines Center to take on the Dallas Mavericks. The common belief in sports is that home court advantage is vital to swinging a playoff series in the favorites’ favor. That simply hasn’t been the case through five games of this Western Conference series, as Dallas has won all three games played at the Staples Center while the Clippers have won the two previous meetings in Dallas.
In Game 5, Luka Dončić leveled up in the discussion of players poised to lead the next wave of NBA superstars. Dončić dropped 42 points, dished out 14 assists, and pulled down 8 rebounds in the five point victory. Only Tim Hardaway Jr. joined Dončić in double figures with 20 points.
The Clippers had a much more balanced scoring attack, with all five starters putting up double-digit points. Paul George posted 23 points on 7-15 shooting, while Kawhi Leonard shot just 7-19 from the field en route to a 20 point performance.
Will Dallas finish this series off at home or will the road team go 6-0 in this series?
Luka Dončić to Score 30+ Points (-182, FanDuel Sportsbook)
When it comes to can’t-miss player props, taking Mavericks superstar Luka Dončić to score 30+ points is as close as it comes. Through the first three games of this series, Dončić averaged 38 points per game, including a 44-point outburst in Game 3. His scoring efficiency dropped in Game 4, going just 9-24 from the field and a subpar 1-7 from beyond the arc, finishing with 19 points in a series-low 35:38 of game action.
Dončić bounced back in a big way in Game 5, connecting on his most field goals made (17) on the most field goal attempts (37), including 6-12 from downtown. Going back to his final regular season game against the Clippers –one in which he scored 42 points– he’s gone for at least 31 points in five of his last six games against the Clippers.
Dončić has as much of a flair for the dramatic as any player in the league, so it stands to reason that he’ll take his play up another notch with an opportunity to win this first round series at home.
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Tim Hardaway Jr. to Make Over 2.5 Three-Point Field Goals (-155, DraftKings Sportsbook)
While Luka Dončić has garnered most of the headlines for the Mavericks, fellow starter Tim Hardaway Jr. has done a great job providing floor spacing for his squad. While -155 odds don’t exactly pay out a ridiculous multiplier, it’s an underrated player prop with a high likelihood of hitting.
Hardaway Jr. is coming off a 3-10 performance from beyond the arc in a five-point win in Game 5, following a woeful 0-4 result in a 25-point Game 4 loss. It’s worth noting that Hardaway Jr. went over 2.5 made three-pointers in each of the first three games of this series, averaging five made threes per game over that stretch. Plus, Hardaway Jr. has gone over 2.5 made three-pointers in seven of Dallas’ last eight games against the Clippers.
Even more impressive is the fact that Hardaway Jr. has connected on at least 3 three-point field goals in 10 of his last 13 games going back to the regular season. This one is worth taking a hard look at.
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Kawhi Leonard to Record 38.5 Combined Points and Rebounds (-110, BetMGM)
The free agent acquisition of Kawhi Leonard in the summer of 2019 was seen as a watershed moment for a much-maligned Los Angeles Clippers team. Leonard’s defection from Toronto following an NBA Finals victory, as well as a trade for Paul George from Oklahoma City installed the Clippers as a title contender. Fast-forward two years and no such title has been delivered. Now on the precipice of a first round elimination, Los Angeles will need a career-defining game out of Leonard.
To his credit, Leonard has been consistent in terms of scoring and his effort on the boards in this series:
- Game 1: 26 points, 10 rebounds (36 total)
- Game 2: 41 points, 6 rebounds (47 total)
- Game 3: 36 points, 8 rebounds (44 total)
- Game 4: 29 points, 10 rebounds (39 total)
- Game 5: 20 points, 5 rebounds (25 total)
There’s a bit of variance in this sample, as Leonard failed to cross the 38.5 combined points and rebounds threshold in Game 1 and Game 5. However, one simply needs to look at Kawhi’s shooting trends in Game 1 (9-22, 40.9%) and Game 5 (7-19, 36.8%) versus his high efficiency in Game 2 (14-21, 66.7%), Game 3 (13-17, 76.5%), and Game 4 (11-15, 73.3%) to see just how reliant this market is on his shooting from the field. It’s also worth noting that Leonard made just one shot from beyond the arc in Game 1 and Game 5, as opposed to multiple shots from downtown in the other three games. With his team facing elimination and rumors already swirling that he could look to leave the Clippers if they underachieve, expect Leonard to have a big game and extend this series to a Game 7 at Staples Center.
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