Joe Girardi is in a position where he’s damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t, and that’s not a very good place to be.

A perfect example of being in a can’t-win spot took place Tuesday night during the Phillies tight rope-walking, 4-3 win over the Miami Marlins.

Vince Velasquez gave the Phillies his best pitching performance of the season, and maybe the best since his 16-strikeout game against the Padres back in 2016.

Velasquez had allowed just two hits, had eight strikeouts, and didn’t walk a batter, something he hadn’t done in more than four years while pitching seven shutout innings, leaving the game with the Phillies up 2-0 in the bottom of the seventh, a lead that would stretch to 4-0 by the time Connor Brogdon relieved him in the top of the eighth.

Velasquez had thrown 97 pitches, 68 for strikes. However, it was the hottest night of the season, and Girardi didn’t want to risk his starter running out of gas by going out for the eighth inning, which was his justification for pulling him.

In a normal season, where bullpens aren’t blowing 21 saves in the first 77 games, that certainly sounds logical.

But in this season, where expectations are much higher and the Phillies have consistently tripped all over themselves as they try to make their way toward the top of the division, that explanation isn’t cutting it for fans, as you will see throughout this post:

Which is a shame.

We know what happened next.

Brogdon struggled with fastball control, but seemed to have good command of his changeup. He faced four batters, walked two and struck out two. Not a great outing, but not awful either, especially since he was fighting his fastball.

Jose Alvarado then comes in walks the bases loaded, uncorks a wild pitch to allow a run, gets out of the jam and then in the ninth allows a single and a homer to let the lead shrink to one run before getting three outs and sweating out a save.

The focus though, as has been the case in Phillies wins of late just as much as it has been in Phillies losses, has been on the manager’s decisions, and the majority opinion – or at least the vocal opinion – has been that every one of them has been wrong:

https://twitter.com/GirardiToJapan/status/1410056162934919171

And Girardi deserves some of this criticism. Last night should have been the Phillies’ eighth-consecutive win. Instead, they are 3-5 in those games. While it wasn’t a managerial decision that cost them the first loss to Washington last Tuesday (that was a Rhys Hoskins error and an Andrew Knapp passed ball), the second Washington game was the David Hale debacle.

Girardi blamed that on not having four relievers available, which begs to question, with the team having an off day Monday and an off day Thursday, and the only relievers who pitched more than one inning Tuesday being Brogdon and Ranger Suarez, who each threw two, why were so many guys not available?

That’s on the organization for being so uber-cautious with their pitchers. These games need to be won, and you’re hamstringing your manager to bring in a guy like Hale in such a crucial spot by babying the bullpen? Awful.

Then there were the two frustrating blown saves in New York. First there’s Alvarado giving up a game-tying single to Francisco Lindor to force extra innings, then after some offensive incompetence, the Mets walked it off with the ghost runner scoring on a single by Dominic Smith.

In that one, Girardi could have had a lefty vs. lefty matchup in Alvarado vs. Michael Conforto if he would have intentionally walked Lindor, a switch hitter, with first base open.

And although there’s the argument that you never want to intentionally put the winning run on base and the fact that Lindor is having a down season, He’s still hitting nearly 30 points higher vs. lefties than righties, and slashes lifetime .297/.361/.839 against left-handed pitchers.

Conversely, Conforto, who is also struggling this season, is hitting just .193 vs. lefties in 2021 and in his career hits them at just .230 compared to .267 vs. righties.

As for Alvarado, lefties are hitting just .121 against him this season.

It seems pretty obvious what the better matchup was. Girardi missed it.

So Joe needs to own that decision. Although we also don’t forget the Alvarado error that Hoskins lost in the sun while his sunglasses sat atop his ballcap, so there was a confluence of events that led to the loss, but still…

The second game blown against the Mets was also a combination of another Hoskins error when he Bill Buckner’d a ball at first base, a hit, two walks by Hector Neris, who walked in a run, and a sacrifice fly.

But Girardi was questioned as to why he pulled Zach Eflin after throwing just six innings on 82 pitches. It was a fair question, and one that didn’t have a great answer, although that decision didn’t likely impact the outcome as much. You can’t have so little faith in the bullpen that you expect the starters to throw nine innings every game. At some point you have to turn it over to the pen and they need to do a job.

Then came Monday in Cincinnati when, nursing a two-run lead in the seventh inning, Girardi turned to Neftali Feliz, who hadn’t thrown a Major League pitch in four years, and he quickly turned a two-run lead into a two-run deficit. This was followed by Enyel de los Santos giving up five more runs and what looked like a win over the Reds turned into an embarrassing loss.

Girardi could have kept Bailey Falter in the game. The kid, who is stretched out because he was starting in the minors, had thrown just 66 pitches, 42 for strikes, and allowed just one run on two hits with six strikeouts in four innings of relief work after replacing an ineffective Spencer Howard; but Girardi chose to go deeper into the pen.

He also admitted he could have turned to Brogdon or Archie Bradley rather than Feliz in a tight spot, but insisted they liked those matchups better. Why? No one knows. We’re not sure what kind of data the Phillies analytics department could drum up to favor a pitcher who hasn’t pitched in four years against the heart of the Reds lineup, including Nicholas Castellanos, who has been sensational this year, and who ultimately hit a grand slam off Feliz, but hey – the computers know better than the rest of us, right?

So now it’s Tuesday, and Girardi has to make another choice. He chooses the path he did. The bullpen almost blew it, and he’s hearing about it:

https://twitter.com/KevCarroll88/status/1410056634177671171

But what if he went the other way? What if he leaves Velasquez in. Let’s consider that for a second.

Velasquez may have still had a few bullets in the chamber, but at 97 pitches, he wasn’t far away from a career high in pitches thrown (113). Also, Velasquez has only topped 100 pitches three times in the last three years.

He also has only pitched more than seven innings once in his career, and that was back in his second start as a Phillie on April 16, 2016 when he pitched that complete game shutout against San Diego with 16 strikeouts.

Since then, there had only been six starts in six seasons that Velasquez completed seven innings. Tuesday was the seventh.

So, there’s a track record here that it makes sense for a manager to say, “job well done” and hand it off to the bullpen.

But let’s say Girardi has absolutely zero confidence in the bullpen. Let’s say he trots Velasquez out for the eighth inning and Vinny gives up a couple baserunners. Lets imagine he does what Brogdon did – although I doubt he’d be given four batters if he walked someone, but just for kicks… let’s say that’s the case.

Keep in mind also that the Phillies are likely not up 4-0 at this point because Velasquez would have batted in the seventh instead of Odubel Herrera, who had a pinch hit, RBI double and scored on consecutive wild pitches.

So, you’re looking at the score still being 2-0 instead.

Velazquez walks two, and then Alvarado has his appearance exactly as it played out.

The Phillies would have lost the game, or at least been down 3-2 going into the bottom of the ninth, and Girardi would be roasted for leaving Velasquez in the game.

As I said, he’s damned if he does, and damned if he doesn’t:

His only way out of controversy is if he leaves Velasquez in, and Vinny stays dominant, something he’s only done after the seventh inning once in his career, and it was more than five years ago:

Maybe, Maybe not. But, Girardi made the right call here. The bullpen is still leaking badly, but they plugged enough holes to win this one. But the manager handled it the right way.

He won’t get credit for it though, and based off some of his recent questionable decisions, as outlined above, it’s quite understandable as to why.