After leveling the series with the Hawks at one game apiece on Tuesday night in Philadelphia, the 76ers now head to Atlanta for an important two games. Tonight’s Game 3 will give the winner a 2-1 series edge ahead of Monday’s Game 4. The line on tonight’s game is essentially a coin flip, as Philadelphia is a mere one-point favorite at most legal online sportsbooks at the time this article was written.

Let’s get set for Game 3 between the 76ers and Hawks with a closer look at the odds and make some picks and predictions for this June 11, 2021 NBA Playoffs matchup.

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Sixers vs. Hawks Game 3 Pick (June 11, 2021)

The spread on the game is a reflection of Atlanta’s strong home court record and win here against the Sixers earlier this season. The game itself will likely come down to the play of its main stars, Joel Embiid for Philly and Trae Young for Atlanta.

After a wild Game 1 that topped 250 total points and sailed way over its posted total, Game 2 mellowed out considerably, staying under its own adjusted final total of roughly 225.5 points. The Sixers have been consistent in scoring 124 points in Game 1 and 118 in Game 2. So, whether tonight’s affair goes over or stays under the total will likely depend on which Atlanta Hawks offense shows up. Will it be the Game 1 version which scored 128 points or the Game 2 Hawks which managed just 102 points?

Sixers vs. Hawks Game 3 Odds

Here’s the Game 3 odds for the Hawks and Sixers at DraftKings Sportsbook:

Team Run Line Moneyline Total
Hawks +7 (-108) +240 O 215.5 (-112)
Sixers -7 (-113) -295 U 215.5 (-109)

And here are the current best available odds for the Sixers (may not display on Google AMP pages):

 

 

Hawks vs. Sixers Game 3 Prediction

While Atlanta winning tonight game is certainly no formality, it is comforting for Hawks’ bettors to see the game’s line so low and to know the team has already beaten this Philly group at home during the regular season. It’s worth noting that Philly was dealing with COVID-19 issues at the time and was without most of its core group, but Embiid did feature in that one and the win is something Atlanta can draw confidence from tonight.

Atlanta is also far from a slouch at home. They are currently 27-11 at State Farm Arena this season, having won 13 straight on this court and 21 of their last 23. That’s an amazing run, especially when you consider that 14 of those 23 games were against teams that made it to the play-in games or better this year.

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The Hawks, who boast an elite 25-13 home ATS record, were 12-6 SU and 11-7 ATS at home off a loss this season. They were also 12-5 ATS as a dog of less than three points this season. Atlanta was a modest 7-6 ATS as home dogs, but the Hawks did cover five of their last seven in that role. Their 10-6 home ATS mark against above .500 opponents pairs nicely for Hawks bettors with the fact that Philly is just 7-12-1 ATS on the road against winning teams and has gone just 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games overall against above .500 foes.

With Embiid looking healthy and the Sixers’ responding with a resounding Game 2 victory, it might be tempting to subscribe to the idea that they will just roll through this series now. However, even with De’Andre Hunter done for the year, Atlanta has proven they have a lot of quality complementary pieces surrounding Young. Bogdan Bogdanovic’s shooting and Clint Capela’s peskiness on the boards alone are enough to stir up trouble for the Sixers.

On top of that, Atlanta is still the league’s third best team defending the three-point shot and also makes its free throws better than all but four teams in the league at 81.2%. Those are the kind of late-game numbers you love to see for a good home team if they possess a lead. And, frankly, even if they don’t, they will likely still have a chance, as Philly struggles from the line outside of Embiid and the hack-a-Ben philosophy is a very real option for teams in any close game, putting the Sixers in a tough spot late.

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Revisiting the topic mentioned above for a second, Philly has covered just six of its last 26 away games against teams with above .600 home win percentages (23.1%). The team has also managed just two covers in its last seven attempts after a double-digit win (28.6%). Those trends do not bode well for the 76ers, one that has a 7-15 ATS mark in their last 22 head-to-head against the Hawks, including six straight ATS losses in Atlanta.

Game 3 Pick

We decided to take the 1.5 point spot here instead of the Hawks’ moneyline, as Atlanta had two one-point losses and Philly had two one-point wins this season. That’s 5% of the teams’ respective combined 80 regular season wins/losses, a far higher value than we would like to risk for a comparatively small return on a moneyline wager versus the Atlanta spread.

Our Pick: Atlanta +1.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook -108)

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