The Philadelphia 76ers earned an emphatic, yet costly, win over the Atlanta Hawks on Friday night, giving them a 2-1 series lead ahead of tonight’s Game 4 at State Farm Arena. The Sixers rolled to a 127-111 victory behind the offense of Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris along with the defense of Ben Simmons. Embiid and Harris combined for 49 points, while Simmons haunted the steps of Hawks’ star Trae Young all night.
Let’s get set for Game 4 between the 76ers and Hawks with a closer look at the odds and make some picks and predictions for this June 14, 2021 NBA Playoffs matchup.
However, the Game 3 victory cost the Sixers the services of three-time NBA Champion Danny Green, who suffered a calf strain in the first quarter and will be sidelined this evening. Green’s defense (as long as he’s not on Young) and long-range abilities will be difficult to replace directly and the Sixers will likely use a combination of greater minutes for Furkan Korkmaz, who made 11 starts during the regular season, and Matisse Thybulle, who is an elite defender in his own right.
Sixers vs. Hawks Game 4 Pick (June 14, 2021)
Atlanta will look to improve its three-point shooting and find more ways to free Young from Simmons’ clutches tonight on their home court where they have been so dominant for several months now.
The total for tonight’s matchup remains in the mid-220s, with the first three games having alternated over, under, and over. Will Philly reach 118 or more points for the sixth straight time against Atlanta this season, likely sending this one over, or will the Hawks use their eighth slowest pace of play to shrink this game and keep it under the posted number?
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Sixers vs. Hawks Game 4 Odds
Here’s the Game 4 odds for the 76ers and Hawks at DraftKings Sportsbook:
|Hawks||+7 (-108)||+240||O 215.5 (-112)|
|Sixers||-7 (-113)||-295||U 215.5 (-109)|
And here are the current best available odds for the Sixers (may not display on Google AMP pages):
76ers vs. Hawks Game 4 Prediction
A play on this game to go over the posted total is worth a nod tonight, given that Game 3 still sailed over a similar number despite Simmons minimizing Young’s effect on the game and the Hawks continuing to labor from beyond the arc. With the absence of Green’s ability to be productive on both ends of the court for Philly, there will be stretches of time where the Sixers will likely be compromising defense for an offensive lineup featuring Korkmaz, which could leave them vulnerable on the pick and roll defensively.
Despite struggling against the Hawks in recent seasons, the Sixers have still managed to put up 117 or more points in eight of the last 10 head-to-head meetings. Philadelphia has also reached at least 114 points in each of its last 10 games, averaging 123.9 points per game in that span.
Anything in the 118-point range by the Sixers tonight, a number they have achieved in five straight against Atlanta, would leave the Hawks just needing to chip in 110 points or so to send this over. You have to imagine they’re capable of this in a closely lined game that they absolutely have to win if they want to keep this series competitive.
With that thought in mind, we very well could see a game played all the way to the final whistle. This could mean lots of stoppages for foul shots late, especially if the Hawks feel inclined to foul Simmons and extend the game.
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There are a number of trends worth mentioning in support of this selection. The Sixers have been over machines as small favorites this season. Just six of their 19 games as favorites of less than five points have stayed under the total, in fact (31.6%). Meanwhile, the Hawks have played 15 of their 23 games as underdogs of less than five points over the number (65.2%). Those facts play nicely with the fact that eight of the last 11 head-to-head meetings in Atlanta have gone over the posted total.
Sixers Over Trends of note:
Four of last five games over as a road favorite
Five of last six playoff games over as a favorite
Five of last six games over after scoring 125 or more points previously
Six straight over after ATS wins and four straight over after SU wins
Six straight over after a double digit win
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Hawks Over Trends of note:
21 of last 26 games over as a home dog
Six of last seven games over after allowing 125 or more points previously
Nine of last 12 games over after a SU loss
27 of last 38 games over after a double digit loss
Eight of last 10 home games over versus opponent with above .500 road record
Game 4 Betting Pick
We expect things to open up tonight and push past the total.
Our Pick: Phi/Atl Over 225 (FanDuel Sportsbook -112)
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