Sixers vs. Wizards Game 5 Odds, Pick, Prediction (June 2, 2021)
One meniscus has turned a city from discussions of its first best-of-seven sweep since the mid 80s to legitimate concerns about its ability to make a deep run. Joel Embiid’s early departure during Game 4 in Washington cost the Sixers the game, but, it’s his immediate health beyond Game 5 that has created the most angst.
Let’s take a closer look at the Sixers vs. Wizards Game 5 odds and make some picks and predictions for this June 2, 2021 matchup.
Embiid won’t play in Game 5 at the Wells Fargo Center tonight, with Philly still listed as six point favorites at many sportsbooks. The Wizards, trailing 3-1 in the series, have injury concerns of their own, as Davis Bertans will miss four to six weeks with an injury sustained in Game 4.
The total for tonight’s game was not greatly affected by Embiid’s likely absence, dipping two points or less from Monday’s final number. The 229.5 currently found at most betting houses is still the second highest this series has seen. What are oddsmakers’ motivations behind tonight’s spread and total? We have our suspicions and, as such, have isolated a couple wagering options for bettors we believe will provide strong value in tonight’s affair.
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Sixers vs. Wizards Game 5 Odds (June 2, 2021)
Here’s the Game 5 odds for the Wizards and Sixers at DraftKings Sportsbook:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawks | +7 (-108) | +240 | O 215.5 (-112) |
| Sixers | -7 (-113) | -295 | U 215.5 (-109) |
And here are the current best available odds for the Sixers (may not display on Google AMP pages):
Sixers Bets We Like with a Wizards Win
Russell Westbrook to Get 14+ Rebounds AND Washington Wizards Win (PointsBet +370)
You might be surprised to know (we sure were) that Russell Westbrook has had 26 games this season with 14 or more rebounds. That’s astounding on its own, but it reminds you of the stat god that Westbrook is when you also discover that he averaged 11.5 rebounds per game on the season, a number that has spiked to 13.6 per game in his last 10 contests.
Amazingly, when Westbrook commits himself to the boards, the Wizards typically win. They were 18-8 this season in those games where he posted 14 or more rebounds (69.2%).
Westbrook grabbed 21 boards Monday in Game 4. He followed up 12 of his 14+ rebound games with another 14+ rebound game this season. His team also played tough after the seven games this season in which its star guard nabbed 18+ rebounds. They won five of those games outright, with the two they dropped both being one point losses, one at Milwaukee and the other at Atlanta.
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As for Washington winning this game tonight, the premise is simple. No Joel Embiid for Philadelphia makes them a different team in all the wrong ways. They were just 10-11 SU without him in the lineup this season and went from a team with a +12 point differential with him on the floor to just a breakeven team without his presence.
It would hardly be the most shocking result tonight if the Sixers were to lose outright without their star big man in the lineup. The line is inflated because of the situation, as several models have the true line around Philadelphia -3.5. The Sixers have struggled to keep with high-scoring teams as well as teams with multi-faceted guards this season, especially when their best lineup isn’t available.
Taking a guy out of the lineup who shot 31-46 (67.4%) from the field and averaged 29.3 points per game through the first three games in series is bad enough, but then factor in Scott Brooks’ unabashed hack-a-Ben in Game 4 and the Sixers could find themselves in a tough spot in a close late game again. Either sit Simmons in crunch time when you need his ball-handling and defense or risk watching him clank away a win at the foul line.
The Sixers are vulnerable without Embiid. Westbrook, knowing this is an elimination game and losing Bertans’ size on the boards, will have to be involved in the rebounding on every possession for Washington tonight. It’s completely feasible that Philly drops this game and if they do, it will be because of a monster performance by Westbrook, which likely includes 14 or more rebounds. It’s hard to turn down a nearly 4:1 payday in a spot like this.
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Sixers vs. Wizards Game 5 Pick
This selection is being made primarily based on the situation and clientele available for both teams. Washington faces another elimination game, while Philly knows a loss sends them back to Washington with a suddenly precarious 3-2 series lead and its star center’s availability unknown. As such, both teams will want to play a clean game, valuing each possession and minimizing turnovers and early fouls that put the opponent in the bonus quickly.
For the 76ers, winning without Embiid means leaning on their elite defense that is second in the NBA in defensive efficiency rating this season. Simmons has proven his worth on the defensive end of the court in this series and will surely be on a mission tonight after the Game 4 loss prompted, in part, by his late missed free throws.
Washington typically prefers to play at a faster pace, especially with Embiid on the court, because it neutralizes his ability to clog the lane. With him out, however, we could see the Wizards slow things down. After all, Beal and Westbrook are likely to play major minutes, as well as be asked to stay in defensively to ensure one-and-dones for a Sixers group whose shooting percentage will surely dip without Embiid. If true, this would mean more walking it up and more half court sets for a team who so often had played fast and in transition wherever possible.
Embiid’s absence also should mean less clock stoppages and trips to the foul line for the Sixers, as the big man led the league in free throw attempts and makes this season. Going the other way, Bertans’ injury takes away Washington’s best three-point threat, putting even more onus on Westbrook and Beal to create. Tick, tick, tick. And, at the end of the day, those two guys being out of the lineup takes 40 combined points per game off the board. Neither team has the weaponry to directly replace that chunk, so it’s hard for us to imagine both getting 114 and above again to push this one over the posted number.
Game 3 trickled over the posted total by just a few points, while Game 4 only went over because of the intentional fouls on Simmons in the final minutes. Game 2 stayed way under. This hasn’t been a prototypical “over” series.
Keep in mind, this is a Washington team that played three of the last four regular season opponents they faced in back-to-back games under the total in that second game. They also played Game 2 of this series under. With this essentially being the second game of an Embiid- and Bertans-less series, both should figure each other out enough tonight to keep this one under the number as well.
Throw out Orlando in the meaningless regular season finale and the Sixers have played five other teams here at home that they had just played the game before. In those other five games, they never allowed more than 108 points, averaging just 103.6 points against. One of those situations was Game 2 of this series where Philly responded after allowing 118 in Game 1 to hold the Wizards to just 95 points in Game 2.
Game 5 Prediction
Washington, off the outright dog win in Game 4, enters here having played under in four of the last five games after covering its previous outing. Suitably for us, the Sixers have chipped in by playing under in 13 of their last 16 games after an ATS loss. They have also stayed under the total in seven of their last 10 games after a straight up loss.
Expect Rivers to adjust to the Simmons-endgame problem and this one to finish more traditionally, in regulation and under the number we need.
Our Pick: Was/Phi Under 230 (FanDuel Sportsbook -110)
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