On the surface, the Phillies might be a tempting play as a home underdog. After all, they have been solid at Citizens Bank Park this season with a 19-12 record. They are winners of four of their last five, wrapping up a second straight National League East series win thanks to yet another walk-off comeback win. However, there is more to the tale here that should give Philly bettors great pause when the team welcomes the Yankees later this afternoon.
Let’s take a look at the Yankees vs. Phillies betting odds and make some picks for the first game of a quick two-game weekend set.
Yankees vs. Phillies Odds (June 12, 2021)
Here is a look at the current Yankees vs. Phillies odds for this June 12, 2021 matchup, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
|Yankees||-1.5 (+125)||-132||O 9 (-110)|
|Phillies||+1.5 (-148)||+114||U 9 (-110)|
Yankees vs. Phillies Pick
For one, when you come from behind in the final inning of the game to win, the fact of the matter is, you could easily have lost that game. If Jean Segura and Luke Williams did not come up with clutch hits, we would be discussing how the Phillies got swept at home by the Braves.
They didn’t, though, and that’s great for the Phillies team and its fans, but the fact remains that they are rarely in position for a comfortable win. They are still a team with a mediocre bullpen at best that also has been horrific in the field, and, occasionally, on the bases. The Phils are in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per nine innings as well as runs allowed.
They strike out the third most of any team in baseball. They go through chunks of most games with almost no offensive production and with a pitching staff that is 11th worst in MLB in home runs allowed per game, they could be in trouble here against a Yankees lineup that hits the 12th most home runs per game, despite scoring the second least runs per nine innings in the league.
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Yankees Need to Get Bats Going
Speaking of the Yankees, yes, their bats have been invisible for much of this season. In fact, they have scored less runs than the American League’s worst team, the Orioles. However, this lineup has gotten a few pieces back of late and has suddenly come alive a bit. The Yanks have scored five or more runs in each of their last four games, averaging 6.8 runs per game in that spell. Five runs today will likely be enough, as the Phillies are just 5-22 this season when allowing five or more runs in a game.
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Which Velasquez Will Phillies Get?
Last time out, Vince Velasquez lasted just four innings in a 12-6 victory over the Nationals, marking two straight poor outings for the guy who began the season out of the bullpen for the Phils. Velasquez had a solid stretch of productive starts, but his 11.57 ERA across his last two outings — featuring his two lowest strikeout outputs in starts this season since his first game in the rotation — are red flags not to be ignored.
You can usually point to some combination of allowing home runs and giving up free passes when trying to explain Velasquez’s struggles throughout his career. He has walked three batters in four of his last five starts and has allowed multiple home runs in three of his eight starts this season. This is a lethal combo against a Yankees team which has drawn the fifth most walks in the league and has the immense power potential.
The Phils’ right-hander is one of those rare pitchers who sports a better ERA this season on the road (4.08) than at home (4.80). He has also struggled in two daytime starts this year, sporting a bloated 8.68 ERA.
New York sends RHP Jameson Taillon to the hill this afternoon, a guy the Phils bumped into a few times over the years when he used to wear a Pirates uniform. Taillon has had some of his better outings during the day, sporting a 3.79 ERA in four days starts, which is significantly better than his 5.82 ERA at night. Taillon has also produced two above-average outings in his two starts against National League East teams this season and could make it a third today against a Phillies team that has combined to go just 1-for-16 lifetime off him.
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The Phillies have some concerning trends behind them today, which will likely help readers feel more comfortable laying the short number on the road here. In interleague play, Philly has won just one of its last seven games and just five of its last 16 at CBP. Particularly alarming is the team’s 1-10 record in its last 11 games against right-handed pitchers at home in interleague play. Heap on the pile the fact that Philadelphia has lost each of their last four interleague games as a dog and you have the makings of a disaster for Philly today.
Making matters worse, the Phillies have lost each of their last six series openers, getting outscored 47-19 in those games while allowing nine or more runs in four of those losses. The team has also won just seven of its last 26 games following a win.
Yankees vs. Phillies Prediction
The Yankees are 5-3 after scheduled days off this season and have won seven of their last 10 games here in Philadelphia. This feels like a bad spot for Velasquez and the Phils, so we have to back New York to hand them their seventh straight loss to open a series today.
Our Pick: New York Yankees -132
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