A Look at Some Key Numbers Following Phillies' Monster Night
For the second straight night, Phillies hitters made Wrigley Field look a like a pinball machine.
They battered Cubs pitching for 16 hits and 15 runs. They chased ex-teammate Jake Arrieta after just five outs. It was an explosive performance, and while it came against a reeling Cubs team that has now dropped 11 consecutive games, the Phillies have been known to fall asleep at the wheel against weak competition.
In other words, they’re doing what they need to do.
Following another night of big offensive output, it’s easy to get lost in the stats and numbers, so let’s take a look at some of the highlights following the Phils’ 15-10 win.
Movin’ On Up
We will get to some individual numbers in a bit, but first, let’s look at the big picture from a team standpoint.
The Phillies had been 0-5 this season after scoring 10 runs in their previous game, but they finally figured out a way to sustain some offensive momentum and put an end to that streak.
By doing so, the Phillies jumped into sole possession of second-place, passing both the Nationals and Braves. With the Mets postponed by rain, they gained a 1/2 game on the division leaders and now sit just four back.
Currently, FanGraphs gives the Phillies a 13.4% chance make the postseason. Not exactly great odds, no, but considering the Phillies began the month with just an 8.1% chance, it’s a start.
Jake Arrieta, Woof
Arrieta failed to make it out of the second inning for a second straight start. He was simply awful from start to finish of his abbreviated 55-pitch outing.
He loaded the bases with his first six pitches of the game. The bases were cleared four pitches later when a 91.7 mph elevated sinker was mashed out to right-center by Andrew McCutchen.
TOUCH 'EM ALL!
Andrew McCutchen with a first-inning grand slam at Wrigley: pic.twitter.com/2tXAWEL0f2
— NBC Sports Philadelphia (@NBCSPhilly) July 7, 2021
Over his last 30 games, McCutchen is slashing an impressive .295/.415/.579 while hitting seven homers and driving in 17 runs. He’s also walked (19) more times than he has struck out (17).
But back to Arrieta for a second. He has a 9.67 ERA over his last eight starts. Opposing batters have hit an insane .336 against him during that run. Over his last two starts, Arrieta has recorded just 10 outs while allowing 10 earned runs.
He told reporters after last night’s mess that he still has more in the tank. Maybe he does, but it sure doesn’t look like it right now. Not to pile on, but if we’re being honest, it hasn’t looked like it for three years.
The More the Merrier
I’m extremely excited to no longer hear about Bryce Harper and the art of the solo home run. Harper finally put an end to his wild streak of 14 solo homers to start the season by launching a three-run shot off Cubs reliever Dan Winkler in the seventh.
Bryce Harper hits a three-run homer to right. It's his first non-solo homer of the season. pic.twitter.com/sZYuRkkOyj
— Todd Zolecki (@ToddZolecki) July 7, 2021
Perhaps crazier, though less publicized, is that Harper entered the night with just seven RBIs in road games this season, six of which came via solo homers. Despite banging three hits with runners in scoring position to start his night, Harper only had one RBI to show for it. His fourth hit with runners in scoring position produced three RBIs in one shot.
In all, Harper collected five hits, including four hits in four chances with runners on second or third base, raising his season average with runners in scoring position from .227 to .292.
That’s a big night.
Hoskins On Pace for Monster Numbers
Speaking of big nights, how about the one had by Rhys Hoskins?
I’ve certainly been critical of Hoskins at times this season. His streaky offensive production can be a killer in the middle of a lineup, and his defense leaves a lot to be desired. That said, it’s hard to argue with some of the stats Hoskins is putting up right now.
He collected three extra-base hits and four RBIs against the Cubs on Tuesday night, including this mammoth solo blast.
Rhys Hoskins appreciation Tweet 💕 #RingTheBell pic.twitter.com/2kWRw8y1eJ
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) July 7, 2021
The Phillies have played 83 games this season. Just a shade over halfway through the schedule, Hoskins now has 20 homers, 20 doubles, and 53 RBIs. While he has hit only .188 over his last 30 games, he’s just barely off a 40-homer/40-double pace while also currently on pace to eclipse 100 runs batted in.
That’s pretty damn good.
Aaron Nola Continues to Struggle
On a positive note, Aaron Nola survived six innings last night for just the second time in his last seven starts. On a negative note, Nola surrendered four runs over six innings, giving him a hefty 4.53 ERA for the season.
Currently, there are only nine qualified starting pitchers in baseball with a worse ERA than Nola. Only four of those pitchers reside in the National League.
Since June 1, he has allowed 24 runs over 36 innings pitched (6.00 ERA).
It should probably go without saying, but if the Phillies plan to make a second-half run, Nola has to be better.
A Third Base Comparison
Quick little player comparison exercise for you.
- Player A: .274/.330/.387 9 HR 60 RBI (125 games played)
- Player B: .258/.313/.451 20 HR 72 RBI (125 games played)
“Player A” is Alec Bohm. “Player B” is Maikel Franco. Prior to last night, Bohm had played in 125 games, so I wanted to see where he stacked up against Franco.
No agenda here. I still believe in Bohm’s offensive profile, but I’d like to see him be a bit more aggressive and try to drive the ball earlier in counts.
Since May 7, Bohm has produced only one home run and it came off a position player throwing 67 mph. He also has just six extra-base hits since June 1.
That lack of power production simply doesn’t play from a corner infielder. At the same time, he has 448 career at-bats and would still be in August of a normal rookie year.
Sometimes, it takes time.
The Cubs Stink
Given what we’ve seen so far from the Cubs this week, it’s truly hard to imagine they were contenders just two weeks ago.
While the Phillies look well-positioned to clinch a series victory tonight with Zack Wheeler on the mound, the Cubs have to win again at some point. Will it be tonight?
Well, consider this:
Since ’05, teams on 11-game losing streaks are 16-19 in their next game.
However, they are just 2-9 when facing a SP with a 3.50 ERA or better. They’re 0-3 when that starter has a 2.50 ERA or better.
Zack Wheeler (2.05 ERA) goes Wednesday night.
— Bob Wankel (@Bob_Wankel) July 7, 2021