Nationals vs. Phillies Pick and Prediction (July 26, 2021)

nationals phillies pick
PHOTO CREDIT: CRAIG DUDEK

The Philadelphia Phillies salvaged a split of an important four-game series with the Atlanta Braves yesterday behind a dynamic start from Aaron Nola. The Phils sit four back of the New York Mets in the National League East, but catch what looks like a scheduling break over the next week-plus. While Philadelphia begins an 11-game stretch against Washington and Pittsburgh, teams which have a combined 83-114 (.421) record, the Mets and Braves will battle each other five times in the next four days.

Let’s jump into a look at the betting odds and make some Nationals vs. Phillies picks and predictions for this matchup on July 26, 2021.

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Nationals vs. Phillies Odds

Let’s take a quick look at the current Nationals vs. Phillies betting odds:

TeamOddsMoneylineTotal
Rays+1.5 (-165)+120O 8.5 (-110)
Phillies-1.5 (+145)-140U 8.5 (-110)

With the trade deadline looming and winning the NL East the Phillies’ only viable path to the postseason, this current run of games carries great importance to the trajectory of their season. The Phils give the ball to RHP Spencer Howard tonight, facing off against Washington’s RHP Joe Ross.

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Nationals vs. Phillies Betting Pick

Howard, who is coming off three shutout innings against the Yankees last Wednesday, is still searching for his first win of the season with the Phillies losing each of his last three starts. However, he has quietly posted a 1.07 WHIP in those outings and has a 2.70 ERA at Citizens Bank Park in 2021. Four of Howard’s six starts this year have stayed under the total, including both here at home, games that averaged just seven total runs.

His one start against Washington this season was a 5-2 win, a game in which only two of the seven runs scored were earned. Howard faced off against Ross in that game, as well, which had a final posted total of 10 runs, a half run higher than what we currently get for tonight’s game.

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Ross will be making his first start since Independence Day, when he mowed down 11 Dodgers in 6 2/3 innings. He has struck out seven or more batters in four of his last five starts and should find more swing-and-miss success tonight against a Phillies team that strikes out the eighth-most in the league.

Ross has been an under-machine this season, as 12 of his 15 starts have stayed under the number. His eight road starts have averaged just 7.4 total runs per game, leading to six games under the total.

Moreover, five of his last six outings have produced quality starts. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs to the Phillies in five career starts. Four of his five starts against Philadelphia have seen him allow one earned run or less. It’s little surprise then that he boasts a 2.65 ERA against the Phils in his career and has allowed just 19 hits and two home runs in 31 2/3 innings pitched.

Washington has played five straight games without a single one going over the total. The Nats have played under in 14 of the last 19 first games of series this season (73.7%) and have had just nine of their last 32 against the NL East go over (28.1%).

They have also played 10 of their last 13 games under the number against opponents who just scored two runs or less prior (Philly scored two runs in yesterday’s win).
Lastly, the Nationals have played just 16 of their last 53 games over the total following a loss (30.2%).

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Philadelphia has played eight games under in its last 11 after scoring two runs or less prior. The team has also had nine games stay under in its last 13 as home favorites while struggling mightily with runners in scoring position over its last six games.

Prediction

With Washington entering tonight fresh off being swept at Baltimore and the Phillies coming in having managed just 3.7 runs per game since the All-Star break, we should have the makings for a tight, low-scoring one tonight. Six of the eight meetings between these two clubs have produced eight total runs or less this season, all under their respective totals, and tonight could make it seven of nine.

Our Pick: Our Pick: Was/Phi Under 9.5

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