Nationals vs. Phillies Pick and Prediction (July 27, 2021)

nationals phillies pick
PHOTO CREDIT: CRAIG DUDEK

One of the most exhilarating wins of the season for the Philadelphia Phillies sets a difficult set a second game of this series between two teams that are facing significant pitching problems. The Phillies won last night’s series opener against the Washington Nationals by a 6-5 final on a walk-off three run home run by Andrew McCutchen. The ninth inning blast marked the only time the Phillies led in the game.

Let’s jump into a look at the betting odds and make some Nationals vs. Phillies picks and predictions for this matchup on July 27, 2021.

Philadelphia now sits just 3.5 games behind the New York Mets, who are in the midst of five straight games against the Atlanta Braves. Tonight, the Phillies send LHP Matt Moore to do battle with the Nationals’ RHP Erick Fedde. And that is where the pitching problems could begin for both teams.

 

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Nationals vs. Phillies Odds

Let’s take a quick look at the current Nationals vs. Phillies betting odds:

TeamOddsMoneylineTotal
Rays+1.5 (-165)+120O 8.5 (-110)
Phillies-1.5 (+145)-140U 8.5 (-110)

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Nationals vs. Phillies Betting Pick

Matt Moore lasted more than five innings for the first time this season in his last outing, albeit a 7-2 loss to the Braves in which he allowed six earned runs, three walks, and two home runs. Following his other two longest starts of the season, both five innings, Moore lasted just 2 2/3 innings and 4 innings, respectively, allowing eight total runs in those 6 2/3 innings of work. Those two games finished with a combined 29 total runs.

High-scoring games is a theme for Moore this season. Seven of his eight starts have gone over the total, including all four here at Citizens Bank Park where he has a 7.91 ERA. Four of Moore’s five starts that came in nine inning games this season have produced at least 13 total runs, well above what we need to cash this total tonight.

Making matters worse for the Phillies here is that Moore’s inability to go deep in games gets paired with a bullpen that had its best arms throw a significant number pitches last night. The Phillies used five relievers after Spencer Howard lasted just 3 2/3 innings, with Jose Alvarado, Hector Neris, and Archie Bradley all throwing 28 pitches apiece. Imagine who that will leave to eat up innings if Moore fails to go deep into this one. It certainly would not be hard to fathom, given that current Nationals are 14-for-43 (.326) off of him, numbers that include five home runs.

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The saving grace for the Phillies, who need to stack up wins during this 11-game stretch against lesser opponents, might be their ability to out-slug the Nationals tonight. Philly averages 6.1 runs per game for Moore and face Erick Fedde, who has seen opponents average 5.3 runs per game in his starts.

 

Fedde has a 6.57 ERA in his last three starts, averaging just four innings per outing, with those games producing a whopping 13.3 runs per game. His eight starts against the Phillies in his career have produced an average of 13.6 runs per game, with five of those outings seeing 11 or more total runs. His most recent start against the Phils came on this mound in late June when the Nats won by 13-12 final.

Bryce Harper gives Fedde particular fits, going 6-for-15 (.400) with four home runs and four walks against him.

Washington can’t expect to lean on the best parts of its bullpen tonight either, as they used five relievers, as well, three of which were appearing for the second night in a row. In fact, Daniel Hudson was used for his third straight night of action in yesterday’s loss. Both lineups should get a couple innings against vulnerable relievers on a perfect summer night in Philadelphia.

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These two have now played three of the last four head-to-head meetings to at least 11 total runs. All four of those games were played at Citizens Bank Park and neither team had a starter last more than five innings.

Washington has now played eight of its last 10 games over the total as a road dog. Just one of the team’s last nine Game 2s of series have stayed under the number.

The Nationals have also seen just four of their last 13 road games against left-handed starters stay under the posted total.

Prediction

Interestingly, the Phillies have played over in five straight games after scoring five runs or more previously. It has also been nine straight games over the total for them against opposing starters with WHIPs above 1.30 (Fedde has a 1.39 WHIP).

Philadelphia has played 13 of its last 16 games over following a win and 14 of its last 18 over overall.

Expect tonight to mark the Phillies 8th over in their last 11 games as favorites as both teams light up the scoreboard.
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