Phillies vs. Cubs Betting Pick: Back Wheeler, Phils to Stay Hot
The Phillies have won four of their last five games and send National League All-Star pitcher Zack Wheeler to the mound looking to hand the Cubs a 12th consecutive loss.
Let’s jump into a look at the betting odds and make some Cubs vs. Phillies picks and predictions for this National League matchup on July 7, 2021.
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Cubs vs. Phillies Betting Pick
Let’s take a quick look at the current Phillies vs. Cubs betting odds:
| Team | Odds | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | +1.5 (-165) | +120 | O 8.5 (-110) |
| Phillies | -1.5 (+145) | -140 | U 8.5 (-110) |
Backing Wheeler’s Dominance
Wheeler would be in serious consideration for a Cy Young Award if not for his former teammate Jacob deGrom. The Philadelphia right-hander has logged quality starts in 13 of 17 outings this season. He has held his opponents scoreless in four of his last five starts, all Philly wins, making it seven times this season the opposition has failed to score a run against him.
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Wheeler leads all MLB pitchers with 139 strikeouts in his 114 innings pitched this season, also boasting the league’s fourth-best ERA (2.05) and ninth-best WHIP (0.94). It could be tough sledding for a Cubs team that has now lost 11 games in a row and 17 of its last 21. After all, Chicago has failed to score more than two runs in seven of the 11 games during that losing streak as well as in 15 of its last 22 games overall.
Another scoreless outing for Zack Wheeler. 🔥🔥
His ERA is now 2.05. https://t.co/pu9afvRV3r pic.twitter.com/dOCyjJTacQ
— MLB (@MLB) July 3, 2021
He has been solid on the road after dropping his first away outing of the season at Atlanta back in early April. Current Cubs are just 22-for-93 (.237) lifetime against the righty, but Cubs not named Jason Heyward are a mere 12-for-66 (.182) with 23 strikeouts and just four extra-base hits.
Phils Getting Healthy
If Wheeler holds Chicago down again today, the Phillies should be able to do enough offensively to earn the victory. They finally have their best lineup healthy and have scored four or more runs in eight of their last nine games, averaging 6.2 runs per game during that stretch, including 13 and 15 runs plated in the first two games in this four-game series.
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Alec Mills will take the ball for Chicago. He will make his sixth start of the season, not having lasted more than 5 2/3 innings in any outing. That came lat time out five days ago in a game which also saw the righty throw 15 more pitches than he had in any previous appearance this season. On four days of rest between starts for just the second time this season, and off the heavier workload, the potential is there for Mills to struggle or catch a quick hook tonight.
Betting Trends
Revisiting the Cubs losing streak for a second, since 2005, teams on 11-game losing streaks are just 2-9 against starters with 3.50 ERAs or better, including an 0-3 record when that pitcher’s ERA is 2.50 or lower.
Other trends to know include:
- The Phillies, who gave up 10 runs in last night’s victory, are an impressive 9-3 this season after allowing nine or more runs with all three of the losses coming by just one run. They are also 7-2 in their last nine games after allowing five or more runs.
- Conversely, the Cubs are just 2-4 this year after scoring double digits prior. Chicago has also lost four of its last five games after allowing 10 or more runs in its previous outing. They face a Phillies group which has won seven of its last eight games against opponents having just conceded five or more runs prior.
- The Phillies have won six straight head-to-head meetings with the Cubs, plating seven or more runs in five of those six games, while averaging nearly 10 runs per game in that span. Chicago is also just 3-9 this season in Game 3s of series following a loss in Game 2.
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Phillies vs. Cubs Prediction
There is likely a difference in mindsets for these two clubs as well tonight. While the Cubs are just trying to figure out what it takes for them to win a game, their collective psyche will surely be fragile against one of the league’s best pitchers. Meanwhile, the Phillies are playing with rare confidence and are trying to make a case to their front office that they should be buyers heading into the critical summer months.
Chicago has lost five of its last six games after dropping the first two games of a series. The team has also failed to win four of its last five Game 3s of series. With a 7-19 record in their last 26 games as underdogs, the Cubs could be in for another long night tonight against Wheeler and the Phillies.
Pick: Phillies (-134) over Cubs
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