Phillies vs. Pirates Pick: Expect Phils' Bats to Push Over the Total
The Phillies didn’t exactly make blockbuster moves ahead of the trade deadline, but they will hope the additions of Kyle Gibson, Ian Kennedy, and Freddy Galvis provide a jolt to a struggling team that played arguably its worst game of the season last night.
Let’s jump into a look at the betting odds and make some Phillies vs. Pirates picks and predictions for this matchup on July 31, 2021.
The Phils’ dire need for pitching help was highlighted once more last night after Vince Velasquez lasted just two innings, giving up five runs to a Pirates team that had managed just three total runs in its previous series against Milwaukee. The Phils’ bats didn’t do anything to the cause, mustering just one hit and no runs in a game that would have seen the team gain a game on the New York Mets had it found a way to win.
Instead, the Phillies find themselves in yet another crucial game, putting all the pressure on Aaron Nola to replicate his sparkling start against Atlanta last time out. Nola went 8 2/3 innings, throwing 116 pitches and missing a complete game shutout by one out.
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Phillies vs. Pirates Odds
Let’s take a quick look at the current Phillies vs. Pirates betting odds:
| Team | Odds | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | +1.5 (-165) | +120 | O 8.5 (-110) |
| Phillies | -1.5 (+145) | -140 | U 8.5 (-110) |
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Phillies vs. Pirates Betting Pick
Nola has had good success following outings where he had gone deeper than seven innings throughout most of his career, but lately that has not been the case. His two outings this season in that role saw him allow 10 runs in 9 1/3 innings pitched. Those games reached 12 and 19 total runs, respectively. Even going back to last summer, Nola’s last eight inning effort was backed up with a 5 1/3 inning outing in which he allowed six runs in a game that finished with 15 total runs.
Nola has also struggled on the road this season, going 3-4 with a 5.52 ERA. Those are dangerous numbers, especially coupled with his stats in night starts, which show him with a 5.89 ERA and 4-6 record.
Nola has four starts against Pittsburgh in his career, but none in over three years and only two guys on the current roster have more than three at-bats against him.
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The Phillies will try to support Nola with some type of run production. They should be able to do so against right-hander JT Brubaker, who enters tonight with a 4-10 record and 4.67 ERA. He’s on a tight pitch count, getting pulled after a fairly successful 69 pitches in his last outing, despite going just four innings. That likely will mean ample opportunity for Philadelphia’s lineup to feast off a poor Pirates pen tonight.
The only other time the Phillies were shutout in the first game of a series this season, they bounced back offensively to score seven runs the next day. The Phillies tend to play high-scoring games in general this season after getting shutout, averaging 12.2 total runs per game in five such games. If you go back to last summer, the Phillies played just one game after being shutout, which ended 13-8 in favor of Philadelphia with Nola on the hill.
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The Phillies average 4.48 runs scored per game this season and score 4.90 per game after a loss. Philly also scores more runs per game on the road this season, while the Pirates have had better production at home. Pittsburgh has also scored well in the few instances after shutting out its opponent, averaging six runs per game this season in that role.
Last night’s game was the first Philly has played under the total in its last eight against the National League Central. It was also the team’s first under in its last six as a road favorite. The Phillies have played nine of their last 11 road games over and seven of their last nine against right-handed pitching.
Pittsburgh pairs well with some of those trends as the Pirates have played seven of their last eight over against right-handers and have just one under in their last six as home dogs. The Pirates also have played just 11 games under the total in their last 36 contests against the National League East.
Prediction
Look for tonight to finally end a six-game head-to-head under run when these two meet in Pittsburgh, as the Phillies’ bats reawaken to aid a decent Nola effort.
Our Pick: Phi/Pit Over 7.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook -115)
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