The Phillies selected Florida high school pitcher Andrew Painter with the No. 13 pick of the MLB Draft.

Here’s some quick need-to-know items:

  • He’s a big kid (stands 6’7″ and weighs 230 lbs.) with a good feel for four different pitches, but his best weapon is a powerful fastball (mid-90s) that plays well up in the zone. Entering the 2021 high school season, many talent evaluators considered him to be the nation’s best right-handed prep pitching prospect. He lived up to the hype, but fellow right-hander Jackson Jobe, who was taken No. 3 by the Tigers, shot up many draft boards this spring.
  • During MLB Network’s draft coverage, Pedro Martinez compared him to former Cubs standout pitcher Mark Prior. Painter has about two inches on him, but there are some mechanical similarities.
  • The Baseball America High School All-American, who’s committed to the University of Florida, dominated at the prep level and in summer showcase circuits. Painter finished his senior season with a 0.31 ERA while holding opponents to a .119 batting average. It’s never a good idea to get caught up in high school statistics as an assessment tool, but those are obviously dominant numbers.
  • The downside here is what it is with almost any prep pitcher. He’s a project that will need to refine his consistency with his pitches as he rises through the Phillies’ minor league system. If all goes well, maybe you see him up sometime in 2024, although 2025 is probably a more realistic target. If. More on that below.
  • Painter has an interesting connection to Phillies manager Joe Girardi. As Matt Breen of The Inquirer first noted, Girardi’s son, Dante, played with Painter at Calvary Christian High School.

Here’s the Martinez clip from earlier:

In short, you’re looking at a big, strong kid, who has the stuff to develop into a dynamic starting pitcher at the Major League level if he puts in the work — and if the Phillies player development staff can get him there.

If there’s a fair criticism of the Phillies’ plan, it’s probably that they doubled down on a somewhat risky strategy of going with a high school arm at the top of the draft in consecutive years. I don’t often mention that I’m a high school varsity baseball coach, mainly because it’s usually irrelevant to covering a Major League Baseball team, but I can tell you that there is an added element of volatility in terms of how an 18-year-old player will progress.

As for the timeline I mentioned above, projections and comps are great and all, but anyone touting the selection as a home run or bust has no idea. Truly. NFL Draft grades often turn comical two weeks into the ensuing regular season. In this case, add four additional years of uncertainty and the load of variables that come with it to the mix.

Anyway, here’s Painter working last summer. His power and physical ability are obvious.