The Philadelphia Phillies are on a tear right now ahead of their series opener with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Phils have won eight straight games, morphing from a team unsure whether to buy or sell at the trade deadline into one leading the National League East by two games with 50 left to play. Can they keep things going tonight?

Let’s jump into a look at the betting odds and make a Dodgers vs. Phillies pick and prediction for this matchup on August 10, 2021.

Dodgers vs. Phillies Odds (August 10, 2021)

Let’s take a quick look at the current Dodgers vs. Phillies betting odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

Team Odds Moneyline Total
Rays +1.5 (-165) +120 O 8.5 (-110)
Phillies -1.5 (+145) -140 U 8.5 (-110)

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Dodgers vs. Phillies Pick

The Phillies send an inconsistent Aaron Nola to the mound tonight who will be looking to shake off a tough outing his last time out in Washington.

Before the season, getting Nola on the mound with a red-hot team behind him would make the Phillies an obvious betting favorite, but his struggles — and the Dodgers’ talent — has Los Angeles has a big favorite instead.

Imagine being in first place, playing at home, riding an eight-game win streak, having your former ace on the hill, and finding yourself a +150 underdog. It’s so outlandish that it might be the most telling line of the season in any game. So, let’s try to wrap our heads around it a bit.

For starters, the term “ace” no longer pertains to Nola. At least right now. He has had two “great” outings in important spots in the last two months, a stretch spanning 10 starts.

https://twitter.com/jgroc/status/1402425818702286851?s=20

It’s absolutely amazing that the Phillies are even in contention when they have lost four of his last seven starts. Crazier is that Nola is getting the sixth-best run support in the National League. The Phillies average 5.91 runs per nine innings for Nola this season and yet are still just 11-11 in his starts.

Four of Nola’s last six starts have produced at least 10 total runs with the righty allowing at least four runs in each of those four shootouts. His last two starts against the Dodgers have totaled 13 and 11 total runs, respectively, as well. So, you certainly can’t bet on Philadelphia here, even as a juicy home dog.

 

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Want to Pick the Phillies? Well…

The Phillies certainly do have an “It” factor right now and should not be counted out of any game.

They’ve historically been a team that shows well against top pitchers, but Max Scherzer isn’t one of them.

Scherzer has haunted the Phillies throughout his career, boasting a 14-4 lifetime record to go with his 2.55 ERA. Most recently, he made time to beat Philly in his last start dawning a Nationals uniform, holding the Phillies to one run on three hits through six innings before joining the Dodgers.

There is reason for Philadelphia to be hopeful against Scherzer today, however. Despite pitching well, Scherzer’s first start in a Dodgers’ uniform resulted in a 7-5 final and opponents have averaged 4.6 runs per nine innings against his teams in his last three starts, significantly more bloated than the 3.5 opponents put up against his team per game on the season.

Further, Scherzer’s career ERA against sub .500 teams is just 3.04, but spikes to 3.36 against teams .500 or above. Interestingly, Scherzer’s worst career month historically from an ERA standpoint has been August, where he has allowed 3.41 runs per nine. His career second half ERA is also higher than his first half.

While current Philadelphia position players may hit just .190 (39-for-205) against the right-hander, the core of the Phillies’ lineup has actually had decent success versus Mad Max. Jean Segura, Bryce Harper, Odubel Herrera (if available), and Brad Miller have combined to go 30-for-99 (.303) against Scherzer with half of those hits going for extra bases, including seven home runs.

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Betting Trends

Here are some betting trends to know before making a Dodgers vs. Phillies pick:

Trends to Know
They Phillies have averaged 6.3 runs per game following a loss and a day off. They are 5-1 in such games.
Arizona has played just 34 of its last 107 games under the total following a day off.
In Arizona's previous eight games in this scenario, they have played to an average of 11.3 runs per game while allowing opponents to score 6.5 runs per game.

Betting Pick

On paper, tonight looks like a classic pitching duel, but  we fully expect this to end up sneaking over the posted number.

Our Pick: LAD/Phi Over 8.5 (BetMGM -110)

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