Mets vs. Phillies Pick, Odds, Prediction (August 6, 2021)

mets phillies pick
PHOTO CREDIT: CRAIG DUDEK

The Philadelphia Phillies pulled off yet another miraculous come-from-behind victory to complete a four-game sweep, and by virtue of another New York Mets loss, closed the gap atop the National League East to just 1/2 game. The Phillies and Mets begin a three-game series in Philadelphia tonight which could go a long way toward deciding which team ends up capturing the NL East crown.

Let’s jump into a look at the betting odds and make a Mets vs. Phillies pick and prediction for this matchup on August 6, 2021.

Mets vs. Phillies Odds (August 6, 2021)

Let’s take a quick look at the current Mets vs. Phillies betting odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

TeamOddsMoneylineTotal
Rays+1.5 (-165)+120O 8.5 (-110)
Phillies-1.5 (+145)-140U 8.5 (-110)

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Mets vs. Phillies Pick (August 6, 2021)

This game feels very much about momentum and Philadelphia certainly returns home with a boatload of it. The Phils have won five straight games for just the second time this season, tied for the team’s longest winning streak this season. A sixth straight victory would move them into first in the division standings, requiring them to win just one of the next two games to leave this series in pole position.

Part of the momentum built by this Phillies team has not just been winning, but doing some with dramatic. Yesterday’s come-from-behind win in the ninth inning was the team’s fourth in its 10 ten games, showing they clearly believe no game is done until the final out. This could be bad news for a Mets team that has the fourth most one-run losses of any above .500 team in MLB.

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The Mets have struggled both on the road (23-32) and against division opponents (22-24) this season. More specifically, they are just 9-15 on the road against division foes. New York will have to find a way to defeat a Phillies group that is strong at home (31-21) and against the East (31-27), including 19-14 at Citizens Bank Park against division opponents.

The Phillies will send RHP Kyle Gibson to the mound to face the Mets and the trade deadline acquisition from Texas will hope to bring an element of surprise to the mound against a National League opponent who does not often get an up-close look at his stuff. Gibson, an All-Star this season, had a solid first start with his new team and currently sits at 7-3 on the season with a 2.86 ERA.

He has been tremendous when pitching at home, with a 1.77 ERA, even though tonight will be his first home start for the Phillies. He should feed off of the energy of the crowd and be able to control a Mets offense that scores the sixth least runs per game (4.05) and leaves the ninth most men on base on the road (7.04) in the league.

Only James McCann, Kevin Pillar, and Jonathan Villar have faced Gibson more than five times in their careers, so the learning curve might be steep for New York tonight, as only McCann could be considered an everyday player from that list.

 

Meanwhile, the Phillies may have their work cut out for them at the plate against New York’s starter, RHP Marcus Stroman. Stroman has a 2.80 ERA on the season and typically fares well against Philadelphia. He faced the Phils three times in April alone, allowing just one earned run across 17 innings. He is 4-3 with a 2.50 ERA against Philly in his career.

Fortunately for the Phillies, they will have a few things working in their favor against the Mets’ right-hander.

For starters, New York has lost seven of Stroman’s last nine starts, scoring two total runs or less in all seven losses. Stroman has lasted more than five innings in just one of his last eight outings, likely giving a hot Phillies lineup a few cracks at it against a mediocre Mets bullpen.

Betting Trends

Here are some betting trends to know before making a Mets vs. Phillies pick:

Trends to Know
They Phillies have averaged 6.3 runs per game following a loss and a day off. They are 5-1 in such games.
Arizona has played just 34 of its last 107 games under the total following a day off.
In Arizona's previous eight games in this scenario, they have played to an average of 11.3 runs per game while allowing opponents to score 6.5 runs per game.

Philadelphia also has five possible starters tonight who either have at least nine hits or a .333 or better batting average in their careers against Stroman. In six career starts against Philadelphia in a Mets uniform, despite his good overall numbers, Stroman’s team has won just twice, scoring more than four runs only once.

They averaged just 2.83 runs per game across those six outings, which is unlikely to be enough against a Phillies lineup that has scored at least five in all five games of their current win streak, averaging a robust 8.6 runs per game in that span.

They face a Phillies team that has won seven of its last nine against starters with a sub 1.15 WHIP (Stroman’s WHIP is 1.13).

Betting Pick

Look for Philadelphia to move to 7-2 in its last nine home games directly following a road trip of a week or longer, as they propel themselves into first place in the National League East to kick off an emotional alumni weekend.

Our Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -110 (Caesars)

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