Mets vs. Phillies Pick, Odds, Prediction (August 7, 2021)
The Philadelphia Phillies rode their powerful wave of current momentum to another big win last night over the New York Mets in the series opener last night. Philly returned home for last night’s game having won five straight and rode the crowd’s energy and the solid starting pitching of newly acquired Kyle Gibson to a 4-2 victory. The win sent the Phillies leapfrogging ahead of the Mets into first place in the National League East standings, setting up a high stakes game this afternoon in a national TV spot.
Let’s jump into a look at the betting odds and make a Mets vs. Phillies pick and prediction for this matchup on August 7, 2021.
Mets vs. Phillies Odds (August 7, 2021)
Let’s take a quick look at the current Mets vs. Phillies betting odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
| Team | Odds | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | +1.5 (-165) | +120 | O 8.5 (-110) |
| Phillies | -1.5 (+145) | -140 | U 8.5 (-110) |
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Mets vs. Phillies Pick
The Phillies will send LHP Ranger Suarez to the mound to make his second start of the season, after a successful run in a bad Philly bullpen. Suarez will be opposed by rookie right-hander Tylor Megill, who makes his ninth start for New York.
Not to rain on the World Series parade certain Phillies fans are surely planning right now, but this pitching matchup, coupled with a desperate Mets team creates a tough sports for the Phillies in this spot.
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The Phillies have momentum on their side, should draw over 30,000 fans again this afternoon, play good ball in day games, and send a lefty to face a team that is just 12-22 on the season against southpaws. Yet, with all of this in the Phils’ favor, it can’t be overstated that this is probably the Mets’ most important game to date.
While the Phillies are celebrating a miraculous run to jump into first in the division, despite making three errors last night, the Mets have to be discussing the many things to be gained by a win today, as well as all that could be lost in defeat. Lose today and the Mets cannot win this series and are guaranteed to leave Philadelphia in second place in the East, at best.
If Atlanta were to win tonight, a Mets loss would send a team that was running away with the division just a couple weeks ago fall to third place. However, if New York finds a way to win this one, they see-saw back into first place, crushing the Phils’ hard-earned momentum and putting the pressure on former Met, Zack Wheeler, in tomorrow’s series finale, a guy they have already beaten twice this season.
The Mets have the right guy on the mound to give the team a solid chance to win today. Megill had a rough go of it in his last start at Miami, but had previously rattled off five straight starts in which he had allowed one earned run or less. Megill has a stellar 2.68 ERA and equally impressive 1.12 WHIP on the season.
The Mets had won six of Megill’s first seven starts, prior to the blowup against Miami his last time out. Following the only other loss, Megill came out and threw six innings of two-hit ball without allowing a run against a quality Toronto lineup in a game the Mets went on to win 3-0.
Suarez has been as dependable as it gets this season for the Phillies and was originally a starter before the need for him in the back end of the bullpen this season. However, this will be just his second start of the season and the team is unlikely to stretch him beyond the 60-pitch threshold this afternoon. That leaves A LOT of baseball to be absorbed by a Philadelphia bullpen that has been, let’s say, underwhelming this season and used its best options to ensure yesterday’s win.
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Playing Short
Bradley is unlikely to be available after throwing 41 pitches across the last two games, while Ian Kennedy allowed his fifth run in four games as a Phillie last night,. Jose Alvarado is a disaster waiting to happen every time he enters a game, and Hector Neris needed 23 pitches to get through his inning of work last night. After that, the options get even more questionable for Philadelphia and it’s hard to imagine this group navigating two-thirds of this one without getting kicked around by these Mets.
Betting Trends
Here are some betting trends to know before making a Mets vs. Phillies pick:
| Trends to Know |
|---|
| They Phillies have averaged 6.3 runs per game following a loss and a day off. They are 5-1 in such games. |
| Arizona has played just 34 of its last 107 games under the total following a day off. |
| In Arizona's previous eight games in this scenario, they have played to an average of 11.3 runs per game while allowing opponents to score 6.5 runs per game. |
Betting Pick
Expect an emotional letdown for Philly today after finally bursting through into first place, as the desperate Mets find a way to win in a game they have to have.
Our Pick: New York Mets +102 (Caesars)
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