Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Betting Pick, Odds, Prediction (August 17, 2021)
The Philadelphia Phillies got a much-needed break yesterday from their recent roller coaster ride with a travel day to Arizona. Tonight they look to regroup against the Arizona Diamondbacks, owners of baseball’s worst record. The Phillies send right-hander Kyle Gibson to the mound looking to halt a 2-4 run which has seen the team slip 1.5 games behind Atlanta in the National League East standings.
Let’s jump into tonight’s matchup with our Phillies vs. Diamondbacks pick.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Pick (August 17, 2021)
Gibson had an unconventional appearance his last time around, coming out of the bullpen as manager Joe Girardi looked to avoid a rain-shortened start. He struggled in this modified role, allowing six runs on seven hits and three walks in just 4 1/3 innings. His two home appearances with Philly have seen his team score just six total runs, so he will hope a road start tonight means run support reminiscent what he saw when the Phillies put up 15 runs in Pittsburgh earlier this month.
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The Phillies will look to provide Gibson with some support. He has a 3.82 ERA on the road this season compared to a 2.04 ERA at home. An offense that has scored just 2.5 runs per game over its last six outings will likely need to up that output to offset the 4.95 runs per game the pitching staff has allowed on the road this season.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Odds
Let’s take a quick look at the current Phillies vs. Diamondbacks betting odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
| Team | Odds | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | +1.5 (-165) | +120 | O 8.5 (-110) |
| Phillies | -1.5 (+145) | -140 | U 8.5 (-110) |
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Luckily, the Diamondbacks concede the most runs per game in the National League and it’s not even close. Despite a far superior home record compared to their joint-worst road record in the league, Arizona still bleeds runs at Chase Field, conceding 5.57 runs per game.
The home/road splits for both teams suggest a perfect mix for an over play tonight. The two combined in these roles to play just 48 of 117 games under the posted number (41.0%), posting an average of 9.98 total runs per game. Philadelphia starters have a bloated 5.19 ERA on the road this season, complimenting Arizona’s dreadful home bullpen ERA of 5.50 nicely for our shootout hypothesis.
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Given Arizona’s current starting pitching dilemmas, there’s a stellar chance we see large doses of this poor bullpen tonight. The Diamondbacks have not listed a starter for Tuesday’s series opener at the time of publication.
Right-hander Merrill Kelly, tonight’s scheduled starter, was placed on the injured list due to his second positive COVID-19 test of the season. If available, right-hander Taylor Widener could take Kelly’s spot, but Widener is still not officially cleared from his own COVID-19 absence.
Betting Trends
Here are some notable trends to know before making a Phillies vs. Diamondbacks pick.
| Trends to Know |
|---|
| They Phillies have averaged 6.3 runs per game following a loss and a day off. They are 5-1 in such games. |
| Arizona has played just 34 of its last 107 games under the total following a day off. |
| In Arizona's previous eight games in this scenario, they have played to an average of 11.3 runs per game while allowing opponents to score 6.5 runs per game. |
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Betting Prediction
Arizona has played the first game of a series over the total seven straight times, averaging 13.3 total runs per game during that stretch. Each of those seven games produced at least nine total runs with the last four totaling at least 13. Look for more of the same tonight.
Pick: PHILLIES/DIAMONDBACKS OVER
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