Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Betting Pick, Odds, Prediction (August 18, 2021)

Phillies Diamondbacks Pick

After a 3-2 setback in their series opener to the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field last night, the Philadelphia Phillies have now dropped five of their last seven games while falling 2.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the National League East. The team’s offense has disappeared, scoring just 20 runs across its last eight games (2.5 runs per game), failing to top three runs in six of those eight outings.

Let’s check out tonight’s matchup with our Phillies vs. Diamondbacks pick.

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Pick (August 18, 2021)

While run production continues to plague the Phillies, the pitching matchup should still give them the edge tonight. Philadelphia sends LHP Ranger Suarez to the mound to make his fourth start after spending the majority of the season in the bullpen.

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The Phillies have won all three of Suarez’s starts, most recently edging by the Los Angeles Dodgers by a 2-1 last Thursday. Suarez has allowed just one run across those three starts, spanning 10 innings (0.90 ERA).

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Odds

Let’s take a quick look at the current Phillies vs. Diamondbacks betting odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

Rays+1.5 (-165)+120O 8.5 (-110)
Phillies-1.5 (+145)-140U 8.5 (-110)

As the Phillies have stretched Suarez’s arm out across his starts, he has gone from 33 pitches in his first outing to 82 pitches his last time out.

If he continues to increase his workload, it is feasible he could give the team as many as six or seven efficient innings tonight. That becomes distinctly possible given how poor Arizona has been against left-handers this season.

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Arizona is just 8-23 against lefties, tied for the league’s worst record with Pittsburgh. No other team has less than 13 wins against left-handed starters.

Arizona also allows over six runs per game after a win this season, while Philadelphia scores 0.79 more runs per game after a loss (4.90) than after a win (4.11). The Phils also allow just 3.84 runs per game after a loss, compared to 5.43 runs per game after a victory.

It’s no surprise then that the Phillies have a .621 win percentage this season after a loss and have won 14 of their last 20 in that role.

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After winning the first game of a series this season, Arizona allows an average of 7.1 runs per game in the following outing.

The Diamondbacks, a team which has lost 15 of its last 22 games following a win, have given up 6.8 runs per game in their previous 22 efforts this season after allowing two runs or less in a win. Also worth noting, the Phillies are 8-3 in their last 11 games after scoring two runs or less previously.
Arizona’s listed starter, RHP Humberto Castellanos, makes just his second start of the season and will be a relative unknown to the Philadelphia roster. No current Phillie has faced him and he has not appeared in a game since his lone start back on July 7.

Prior to that start, however, the Diamondbacks had lost all seven games in which Castellanos had appeared this season. He appeared in games in which Arizona allowed between 5-13 runs, serving mainly as an innings eater. He could be just the guy this Philadelphia needs on the mound in order to get going again.

Castellanos is also unlikely to go deep into this one, giving Philly ample cracks at the National League’s second worst bullpen in terms of ERA (5.32). The Arizona pen has lost 28 games this season, more than any other team in Major League Baseball.

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Betting Prediction

Look for Philadelphia to convincingly win a game they absolutely must have in order to remain relevant. Arizona has 23 one-run losses, which is tied for the most in MLB, but, keep in mind they also have the most losses in the majors.

Pick: Phillies (-1) over Diamondbacks

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