Phillies vs. Nationals Pick, Prediction, Odds (August 5, 2021)

nationals phillies pick
PHOTO CREDIT: CRAIG DUDEK

The Philadelphia Phillies have now rattled off four straight wins and hand the ball to RHP Aaron Nola in the series finale looking to finish a sweep of the Washington Nationals this afternoon. Philly’s recent surge has them just 1.5 games behind the New York Mets in the National League East with the two teams meeting for a series that begins tomorrow night at Citizens Bank Park.

Let’s jump into a look at the betting odds and make a Phillies vs. Nationals pick and prediction for this matchup on August 5, 2021.

Phillies vs. Nationals Odds

Let’s take a quick look at the current Phillies vs. Nationals betting odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

TeamOddsMoneylineTotal
Rays+1.5 (-165)+120O 8.5 (-110)
Phillies-1.5 (+145)-140U 8.5 (-110)

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Phillies vs. Nationals Pick (August 5, 2021)

Aaron Nola received a no-decision his last time out, but has looked more like the ace the team needs him to be across his last two starts. The right-hander threw a combined 14 2/3 innings in those two games, allowing just seven hits, one walk, and three runs, while striking out 12 batters. His 0.55 WHIP and 1.84 ERA in those two starts would be a welcome sight today and would likely go a long way to helping the Phillies equal their season-best run with a fifth straight victory.

Nola has not been great overall away from home this season, but his last two road starts against division opponents have seen him allow a combined two hits and one run, while piling up 18 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings. Those two games produced an average of 4.5 total runs and all four of Nola’s division road starts this season have totaled seven runs or less.

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The Phillies’ star has been tough on opponents in his eight daytime starts this season, posting a 3-0 record with a 2.36 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. Philadelphia is 6-2 overall in those outings, allowing just 2.1 runs per game, with those games seeing just 7 total runs scored on average.

This makeshift Nationals group has not had much career success against Nola either. Current Nats are just 22-for-108 (.204) against him with four home runs against 33 strikeouts. Washington’s star, Juan Soto, particularly struggles against him, going 5-for-26 (.192) with eight K’s.

 

If Washington hopes to avoid their second four-game series home sweep of the season, their saving grace may be sending RHP Joe Ross to the mound to face Philadelphia. Ross has always pitched well against Philly, even in two losses to them this season. While the Phillies piled up 11 runs in those two games, not a single earned run was allowed by Ross across his 11 innings of work.

He has a lifetime 2.31 ERA against Philadelphia, which pairs well with his 2.28 ERA in nine daytime starts this season.

Washington and their opponents both produced less than three runs per game in those nine outings and not a single one of those games went over its posted total.

J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura have fared well against Ross in their careers, but the rest of the Philly roster is a combined 7-for-38 (.184) against the right-hander. No current Phillies player has homered off of Ross in 83 combined plate appearances.

Betting Trends

Here are some betting trends to know before making a Phillies vs. Nationals pick:

Trends to Know
They Phillies have averaged 6.3 runs per game following a loss and a day off. They are 5-1 in such games.
Arizona has played just 34 of its last 107 games under the total following a day off.
In Arizona's previous eight games in this scenario, they have played to an average of 11.3 runs per game while allowing opponents to score 6.5 runs per game.

Phillies vs. Nationals Prediction

Washington has played over the total just 12 of their last 39 games after scoring five or more runs prior and only 17 of the last 54 times following a game in which the team conceded five or more runs. The Nationals also have just 14 games over the number in their last 53 against starters with a WHIP of 1.15 or better.

With afternoon shadows potentially playing a helpful role for pitchers this afternoon and with the Phillies possibly glancing ahead to their all-important series against the Mets at home beginning tomorrow, we should have the recipe for today’s game to stay under the generous total here. Aaron Nola and Joe Ross should cruise in this one.

Our Pick: Phi/Was Under 8.5 (TwinSpires)

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