Phillies vs. Nationals Prediction: Back Wheeler to Get It Done (August 3, 2021)
If you are a Phillies fan, you should be more preconditioned on what to expect tonight than Pavlov’s dogs. A two-game win streak, capped by a come-from-behind ninth inning victory last night can only mean one thing, right? Philadelphia has made a habit of coming out flat after an emotional victory, while also proving wholly incapable of rattling off several wins in a row.
Let’s jump into a look at the betting odds and make some Phillies vs. Nationals picks and predictions for this matchup on August 3, 2021.
The Phillies, a 9-8 team since the All-Star break, have not won three games in a row on this side of the Midsummer Classic. In fact, they have just three win streaks of three games or more since the first series of 2021.
Making a win tonight even more difficult for Philly backers to imagine is the fact that this team has been utterly lifeless the day after each of their last two ninth inning come-from-behind wins. An Andrew McCutcheon walk-off three run home run over these Nationals a week ago was promptly followed by a 6-4 loss to the Nats in which Philly was down 6-1 before the second inning had run its course.
Just two nights later, Brad Miller walked it off for the Phils with a ninth inning grand slam to close out the Nationals series. Lo and behold, Philadelphia traveled to Pittsburgh and got shut out, 7-0, earning just one hit.
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Phillies vs. Nationals Odds
Let’s take a quick look at the current Phillies vs. Nationals betting odds:
| Team | Odds | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | +1.5 (-165) | +120 | O 8.5 (-110) |
| Phillies | -1.5 (+145) | -140 | U 8.5 (-110) |
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Phillies vs. Nationals Betting Pick
The Phillies now face LHP Patrick Corbin, the starter who had to watch Miller’s salami cost him a win in his last start.
You would assume with Corbin’s obvious motivations today coupled with the convincing historical case put forth above for a Phillies collapse tonight, that we must be recommending a play on the Nationals tonight. But, to quote the inimitable Van Wilder, “Au contraire, mon frères.” We actually believe this is a great spot to buck the trend and play, once again, on the Phillies.
The main driving force for this seeming blind idiocy is the fact that Philadelphia is not sending Vince Velasquez or Matt Moore to the hill as they did in those two catastrophic losses mentioned above. Instead, Philly’s ace, RHP Zack Wheeler, gets the ball with his own revenge in mind.
Wheeler was bested by Max Scherzer last time out in Scherzer’s final game in a Washington uniform. Wheeler went the distance in the shortened double-header game, but suffered the loss as Scherzer held the Phillies to just one run on three hits through six innings before Kyle Finnegan closed it out with a clean seventh.
The loss was the third straight for the Phillies this season when Wheeler got the start against Washington.
The offense can be held fully accountable for that, however, as the Nationals scored three runs or less in all four of Wheeler’s starts against them in 2021. In the three losses with Wheeler at the helm, Philly scored just four total runs.
Since the start of May, the Phillies are 4-1 when Zack Wheeler starts after a team loss in his last outing. The only loss was a 2-1 loss to Washington in which Wheeler allowed just two runs on five hits through 7 1/3 innings.
That dominance extended to all five of his starts, as Wheeler tallied 37 1/3 innings pitched, allowing just 13 hits and six earned runs, good for a 1.45 ERA and a mind-boggling 0.51 WHIP.
He posted seven or more shutout innings in three of those starts. We can fully expect a similar effort tonight against a depleted Washington lineup that had its mojo stolen last night in a late collapse.
There is good reason to believe that the Phillies can do enough offensively to help Wheeler get back to winning ways against the Nationals tonight. While the Phils have only given the right-hander 2.6 runs per game with which to work in his road starts, they face Corbin who has seen opponents score nine runs per game in his last three starts. The Washington left-hander has a 5.37 ERA and 1.46 WHIP at home. Opponents average 6.1 runs per game in his 11 previous evening starts.
Washington has lost five of Corbin’s last six starts, including each of the last three, and the team has far less offensive firepower available now than they did for any of those contests. Three of Corbin’s six home starts that resulted in Washington victories came against teams in last place in their respective divisions (Miami, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh).
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Phillies vs. Nationals Stats and Trends to Know
- Current Philadelphia position players are 43-for-157 (.274) off of Corbin, with five of last night’s starters hitting .286 or better in their careers.
- Rhys Hoskins, who could potentially return tonight, has been particularly dangerous against Corbin, posting a lifetime .348 (8-for-23) average with three doubles and two home runs.
- Washington continues to struggle as underdogs, losing 39 of its last 58 in that role, including 13 of its last 16 as home dogs.
- The Nats have lost six of their last eight Game 2s of series and could struggle with bullpen options again tonight after Wander Suero and Gabe Kobosits were both used for the second night in a row. Finnegan was rested last night, but would prove irrelevant if the Nationals lack a late lead tonight.
- The Phillies are just 16-19 against left-handed pitching this season. However, they have won nine of their last 15 against southpaws and their 35 games against lefties is the most of any team in the National League.
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Prediction
With Wheeler motivated against a team he has controlled this season and the Phils just 2 1/2 games behind the Mets, who they face next, we believe a team with any heart at all finds a way to win tonight. Let’s find out if Philly fits that description.
Of final note, we lowered the price tag to minimize the risk on the road Phillies by using a run line of -1. While a one-run Phillies win would only mean a push for us here, we are still not overly worried about that outcome occurring. After all, the Nationals have the least one-run losses in the National League East (13) and only five of those came at home.
Also, depending on which official scorer you ask, the Phillies got a one-run win last night, making them less likely to have another here. In all seriousness, though, despite giving Wheeler minimal road run support this season, the Phillies have won just one of his road starts by one run in 2021 and that was back in April. Philadelphia has 20 one-run wins this season, but only five of those have come on the road.
The small additional risk of pushing here is well worth chopping down the cost of buying the Phillies -1, in our eyes.
Our Pick: Philadelphia -1 (FOXBET -143)
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