Two teams in desperate need of a win square off at Petco Park tonight, as the Philadelphia Phillies take on the San Diego Padres. Philadelphia enters having dropped four straight games and seven of the their last nine after getting swept by Arizona, the National League’s worst team. San Diego can hardly claim better, returning home after getting swept at Colorado following dropping three of four at those same Diamondbacks that picked apart the Phillies.

Let’s check out tonight’s matchup with our Phillies vs. Padres pick.

Phillies vs. Padres Pick (August 20, 2021)

Seven losses in the team’s last eight games has dropped the Padres 9.5 games behind Los Angeles for the first NL Wild Card spot and 12 games behind San Francisco in the National League West. The poor run has also allowed Cincinnati to close to within a game of San Diego for the second and final Wild Card spot with less than 40 games to play in the regular season.

Meanwhile Philadelphia has dropped four games behind the Atlanta Braves, who lead the National League East.

Picking a winner between teams struggling the way these two are can be difficult, but we see some clear-cut advantages for the Padres here, making them a worthy play tonight.

For starters, the Phillies had no time to regroup after Arizona closed out the sweep last night. Philly was on a plane to San Diego, while the Padres were enjoying a much needed off day.

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Phillies vs. Padres Odds

Let’s take a quick look at the current Phillies vs. Padres betting odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

Team Odds Moneyline Total
Rays +1.5 (-165) +120 O 8.5 (-110)
Phillies -1.5 (+145) -140 U 8.5 (-110)

San Diego will benefit from the ability to mentally refocus, as well as the chance to rest their overused bullpen, upon which they rely so heavily. The San Diego pen still owns MLB’s best ERA (3.04) despite throwing 32 innings more than any other team in the National League. Having yesterday to get their best arms fresh should provide a huge boost.

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San Diego sends LHP Blake Snell to the mound tonight against a Phillies group that is just 17-21 against left-handed pitching this season.

Snell has been lights out of late, amassing a minuscule 1.59 ERA over his last three starts, with opponents scoring just four runs total across those three games. Snell struck out 25 batters in 17 innings in those three starts and should sit down plenty more tonight against a team that is in the bottom half of the league at putting the ball in play.

While Snell has just a 4.80 ERA on the season, he is devastating at Petco Park. He is 4-1 with a 2.40 ERA, allowing just four of his 14 home runs at home. Opponents have hit .181 against him in San Diego, versus .301 on the road. He has allowed two runs or less in all but one home start this season, not giving up a run in three of his last home outings.

Current Phillies are just 8-for-47 (.170) with no home runs against 12 strikeouts. That’s a bad omen for Philadelphia, given that they have scored two runs or less in seven of their last nine games.

Meanwhile, the Phillies send LHP Matt Moore to the hill for this critical game off of his best start of the season. Moore went six no-hit, shutout innings against Cincinnati last time out.

Moore threw 76 pitches in that masterful start last Saturday, but following the other three times he threw 75 or more pitches this season, he allowed six or more runs each time, all Philadelphia losses by more than one run. Moore has a 6.87 ERA in night starts this season and has allowed four or more runs in both of his career starts against the Padres.

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Phillies vs. Padres Betting Prediction

With regards to the run line here, the Phillies have just 16 one-run losses this season, the second least of any team from the NL East or NL West. Meanwhile, San Diego has just 16 one-run wins on the year, the second least of any winning team in the National League.

Nine of the Padres’ last 10 wins came by more than one run, while just three of Philadelphia’s 15 losses since the All-Star Break have come by one run. With Philly’s offense struggling the way it is, we think backing the favorite on the run line is a safe play tonight.

Our Pick: San Diego -1.5 (DraftKings -105)

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