Phillies vs. Padres Betting Pick, Odds, Prediction (August 21, 2021)
Both the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres seem to lack any answers about how to fix their issues at the plate. The Phillies won a war of attrition last night, surviving numerous scares to secure the first game of an important series by a 4-3 final. Still, it was the tenth time in the team’s last 11 games that they scored less than five runs, going a long way to explaining why they are just 4-7 during that stretch.
Let’s check out tonight’s matchup with our Phillies vs. Padres pick.
Phillies vs. Padres Pick (August 21, 2021)
The Padres are similarly devoid of answers offensively, as they have now lost eight of nine, scoring three runs or less in six of those games, while averaging just 3.2 runs in those games. Thanks to this prolonged slump, San Diego lost its grip on the second and final National League wild card spot, overtaken by the Reds who are now tied with the Padres.
Both San Diego and Philadelphia are in dire straits in terms of making the postseason and neither team seems able to figure things out with the bat, so what will separate them tonight? Well, the only thing left to decide things must be pitching.
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Phillies vs. Padres Odds
Let’s take a quick look at the current Phillies vs. Padres betting odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
Team | Odds | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Rays | +1.5 (-165) | +120 | O 8.5 (-110) |
Phillies | -1.5 (+145) | -140 | U 8.5 (-110) |
Philadelphia sends RHP Aaron Nola to the mound to face RHP Joe Musgrove.
While Musgrove’s numbers (3.11 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) may look better on paper, most would agree that Nola, when on his game, provides the greater ability to dominate a baseball game. We saw flashes of that in his rain-shortened four innings against the Dodgers two starts ago, where he looked absolutely unhittable while locking horns with Max Scherzer.
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With Philadelphia’s season on the brink, Nola must finally pitch like the ace that he’s been viewed as in recent seasons, especially with Zack Wheeler dropping two straight starts.
The Phillies are 3-3 in Nola’s six career starts against San Diego, but they won both times he was an underdog. Nola posted a 2.77 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in those two games, improvements over his 3.66 ERA and 1.07 WHIP lifetime numbers against the Pads. Current Padres are just 8-for-40 (.200) against the Philly right-hander with just one home run and one RBI against 13 strikeouts.
Aaron Nola's last ten starts: 5.75 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.
It comes with a 31.1 K% and 25.2 K-BB%. It also comes with a 3.21 SIERA, 3.43 xFIP, and 4.01 FIP.
The LOB% is a low but the BABIP is okay.
I'm not sure what's happening here with him but clearly the skills are there. pic.twitter.com/ZGgRmsgFjg
— Michael Simione (@SPStreamer) August 17, 2021
Musgrove could prove a bit vulnerable here today as he has posted just a 4.24 ERA and 1.35 WHIP across his last three starts, in which his team went just 1-2.
In fact, the Padres are just 3-5 in Musgrove’s last eight starts, despite the fact that he faced just one team with a winning record during that time. Musgrove and his impressive 1.03 WHIP in 2021 get caught facing a Phillies team that (surprisingly) has won nine of its last 13 games against pitchers with WHIPs under 1.15.
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Philadelphia has won seven of its last 10 games as underdogs, including each of its last three. They have won four straight as road dogs, as well following last night’s victory.
Interestingly, San Diego has lost four straight as favorites and is just 2-5 in their last seven second games of series. The Padres have also dropped six of their last eight Saturday games and might be ripe for another frustrating loss here tonight.
Phillies vs. Padres Betting Prediction
Philadelphia has won 38 of the last 55 head-to-head meetings between these clubs here in San Diego. Take the tremendous value with the Phillies and a struggling starter who can still be as good as any in the game on any given day.
Our Pick: Philadelphia +140
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