Reds vs. Phillies Pick, Prediction, Odds (August 14, 2021)

The Cincinnati Reds look to piggyback their win over the Philadelphia Phillies in the series opener last night when the two teams meet this afternoon at Citizens Bank Park. The Reds pushed six runs across while starter Tyler Mahle cruised through seven shutout innings, flustering an already struggling Phillies lineup. Unlike yesterday, most won’t think “pitchers’ duel” when they see today’s listed starters. In turn, we expect that a Luis Castillo versus Matt Moore billing will produce plenty of runs.

Let’s jump into today’s matchup with our Reds vs. Phillies pick as well as take a look at the betting odds.

Reds vs. Phillies Pick (August 14, 2021)

Somehow, Moore gets the ball for the Phillies this afternoon — essentially by process of elimination. The left-hander has proven to be a liability on the mound, with a bloated 6.79 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. Unfortunately for the Phillies, Moore has been even more dismal at home with a 9.89 ERA while opponents are hitting .327 against him.

He’ll be opposed by Castillo, a big talent who has struggled to consistently produce this season.

Reds vs. Phillies Odds

Let’s take a quick look at the current Reds vs. Phillies betting odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

Moore’s last two starts came in late July. He allowed six runs in each of those subpar outings. He has appeared out of the bullpen twice since, most recently getting pummeled by the Dodgers for three runs in 1/3 innings of work earlier this week.

If an afternoon thunderstorm doesn’t bail him out with a free early exit, Moore’s only other saving grace today might be the limited exposure current Reds have had against him. Only four Cincinnati players have ever faced the lefty, each earning at least one hit in a collective 5-for-17 with one home run (Mike Moustakas).

With Moore on the mound, the Phillies, who are currently tied for first with the Atlanta Braves in the NL East, should know they need to score runs to get this win. Thankfully, they have done so for most of Moore’s starts, going a surprising 6-3 in those games while supporting him with 5.9 runs per game. In day games, that support has spiked to 6.7 runs per game, helping reach an average of 11 runs per game in his day starts.

It’s certainly unsettling to play over the total knowing the Phillies have scored just eight runs total in their last five games (1.6 runs per game). However, they face Castillo who can find a bat with his pitches as well as almost anyone when he is struggling.

Castillo currently sits at 6-11 on the season with a 4.53 ERA and 1.53 WHIP.

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We may have caught a glimpse of exactly that in Castillo’s last outing. After nearly one-month stretch in which he went 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA, the right-hander allowed a mediocre Cleveland lineup to pound him for eight runs in 3 1/3 innings. Castillo has been particularly poor on on the road this season where he has 5.40 ERA. Notably, 8 of his 11 road starts have sailed over the total, producing an average of 10.2 total runs per game.

Betting Trends

Here are some trends to consider before making a Reds vs. Phillies pick.

Reds vs. Phillies Betting Prediction

With the Phillies cashing just three under results in their last 12 games as underdogs, look for an afternoon shootout today.

Pick: Cin/Phi Over 9.5 (DraftKings -115)

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