The Good News: At Least Aaron Nola Shoved
Aaron Nola’s night was brief, but it was spectacular while it lasted.
Just five days after an uninspiring outing in which he allowed five runs over five innings to a borderline Triple-A Nationals lineup, Nola rebounded with a bang in a rain-shortened start against the potent Dodgers.
In terms of pure stuff, his 51-pitch effort was arguably his best of the season. He quickly racked up seven strikeouts, effectively pantsing the National League’s best run-producing lineup for four innings.
Six of seven Nola’s strikeouts were finished with his curveball, which Joe Girardi called his best of the season. The pitch generated six whiffs on just 10 total swings.
Its effectiveness also allowed Nola to beat Dodgers hitters up in the zone with his fastball with what was a perfectly-executed game plan.
Aaron Nola, K'ing the Side.
7Ks thru 3. pic.twitter.com/A0oEkq0bTm
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 10, 2021
Unlike his previous outings with high strikeout totals, he was able to get through the early innings of this start with an efficient 12.75 pitches per inning.
And then…
Woof. pic.twitter.com/PD0F9Z2nit
— Bob Wankel (@Bob_Wankel) August 11, 2021
“That’s probably as good of stuff as Aaron has had all year long,” Girardi said. “It’s frustrating, but it’s Mother Nature, and there’s not much you can do about it.”
There’s no way to know how Nola’s night would have unfolded if Citizens Bank Park didn’t get rocked by a slew of unexpected storms that caused a 104-minute delay. Maybe he matches Zack Wheeler’s brilliant start. Maybe the Dodgers ambush him in the fifth.
We’ll never know because those post-rain delay innings were absorbed by a procession of the Phillies’ lowest-leverage arms, but it certainly appeared Nola was well on his way to an outstanding performance.
“Honestly, it kind of surprised me because I looked at the forecast earlier in the day and I didn’t see much of anything,” Nola said. “I went down in the batting cages and stayed loose a couple times, and at that point, you really hope it’s not a long stint. Unfortunately, it was a lot longer than we thought.”
Despite the bad break in a quiet 5-0 loss, his effective has to be the main takeaway for the Phillies on an otherwise ugly night.
Division betting odds and FanGraphs playoff projection formulas may currently favor the Phillies, but it’s virtually impossible to envision their playoff path without at least an above average Nola. And while you won’t get an argument here that a season headlined by a 4.35 ERA and a number of disappointing starts has been nowhere near good enough, his recent numbers could portend a turnaround.
He has a 3.04 ERA in 23 2/3 innings over his last four starts, holding opposing hitters to a to a sub .160 average and a sub .530 OPS. During that run, Nola has produced a 0.72 WHIP also striking out 28 batters and walking just four.
We’ve seen him dazzle in flashes only to quickly stumble again, so any proclamations about a triumphant return are probably premature. He needs to put together a string of three of four more effective starts, but the numbers are reason for at least some mild optimism.
Well, the numbers and that Nola flat-out shoved against an offense that entered the night scoring 5.36 runs per game on the road this season — one that immediately went off upon his departure.
This ALSO ain't it.pic.twitter.com/Oi9yr48IvX
— Phillies Nation (@PhilliesNation) August 11, 2021