Eagles vs. Panthers Odds, Pick, Betting Prediction (NFL Week 5)

eagles panthers pick
PHOTO CREDIT: CRAIG DUDEK

The Philadelphia Eagles head south to Charlotte this Sunday where they will take on the Carolina Panthers. This Week 5 matchup pits a reeling 1-3 Eagles team against a 3-1 Panthers squad that suffered its first loss last weekend. While Carolina will once again likely be without its star running back Christian McCaffrey, Philadelphia has injury issues of its own, as the Eagles come in banged up along both their offensive and defensive lines.

Let’s take a look at this NFL Week 5 matchup between the Eagles and Panthers with a dive into the odds and betting trends before revealing our pick and prediction.

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Eagles vs. Panthers Odds

First, let’s take look at the current Eagles vs. Panthers odds, courtesy of Barstool Sportsbook:

TeamsSpreadMoneyline Total
Eagles-3.5 (-110)-190O 45 (-110)
Giants+3.5 (-110)+160U 45 (-110)

The Panthers opened as three point favorites for this one, a line that jumped as high as -4.5 in response to nearly 70% of bets coming in on Carolina by midweek. However, with McCaffrey now listed as doubtful, Matt Rhule’s team currently sits between -3  at most legal online sportsbooks. The total has quickly dipped from as high as 47.5 at open to as low as 44.5 currently, despite a near even split of bets on both the over and under thus far.

Eagles vs. Panthers Pick

While allowing over 40 points in each of the last two games would typically set off alarms regarding any defense, we think that perception is a bit exaggerated here. After all, Dallas and Kansas City, the Eagles’ two most recent opponents, currently sit fourth and second in scoring, respectively. Both teams average over 31 points per game.

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We shouldn’t just forget that when the Eagles faced Atlanta and San Francisco, the 25th and 7th ranked scoring offenses, they held them to 23 total points. Carolina enters this game just 13th overall in the NFL in scoring, putting up 22.5 points per game at home, which is the 17th best mark in the league. One would hardly expect a team that has not yet topped 30 points in a game to suddenly do so against a Philadelphia defense that has proven it can play with all but the league’s elite offenses.

Entering this season, Philadelphia had played just 22 of 50 non-division games over the total over the previous five years. Also, as crazy as it sounds,  keep an eye on the playing surface in this one. The Eagles have played eight of their last 11 under the number on grass.

Prior to the Week 3 and Week 4 blowout losses against high-powered offenses, the Eagles had played 9 of their previous 12 overall under the number. They face a Carolina team which had played six straight under prior to its own meeting with Dallas last Sunday. The Panthers have now played four of their last five at home under the number, as well as five straight under on grass.

There’s more.

The under has also cashed five of the last six times the Panthers have been favored. With four of five under against the NFC and four of five under in October on the team’s recent resume, we should expect a low-scoring affair here.

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The Panthers were outgained 433-379 in their 36-28 loss to the Cowboys last week, due in large part to Dallas piling up 245 yards on the ground. The good news, however, is that Carolina has played four of its last five games under the total after allowing 31 or more points in its previous game. The Panthers have the same ATS record in their last five games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing, after allowing more than 350 total yards, and after gaining over 350 total yards of offense.

Cut from the same cloth of tightening the purse strings after big offensive games, the Eagles, who allowed 200 of the Chiefs’ 471 yards to come via the rush on Sunday, have played five of their last six under after allowing more than 150 yards on the ground previously.

They have also played seven of the last eight under after giving up over 350 total yards in their previous game. Incidentally, the Birds earned 358 of their 461 total yards of offense through the air last Sunday, setting up trends that show Philly having played 10 of its last 14 under after throwing for over 250 yards and five of the last seven under following a total offensive effort of over 350 total yards.

Eagles vs. Panthers Betting Prediction

The Philadelphia defense is better than what we saw the last two weeks and will face a Carolina offense most likely playing without its greatest weapon. Carolina’s defense is young, energetic, and still underrated.

Look for this game to make it 10 of the last 14 Eagles games against conference opponents to stay under the posted total.

Our Pick: Phi/Car Under 45.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook -110)

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