The 3-6 Philadelphia Eagles head west to Denver this Sunday to take on the resurgent 5-4 Denver Broncos, a team that suddenly finds itself right in the thick of a crowded AFC playoff hunt. The Broncos are coming off what was both a stunning and dominant victory over the Cowboys last Sunday, but they should be wary of a Philadelphia bunch that has seen all three of its wins come on the road this season.
Let’s jump into our Eagles vs. Broncos prediction for this NFL Week 10 matchup, including a look at the odds, betting trends, and our ATS pick.
Eagles vs. Broncos Odds
Here’s a look at the current Eagles vs. Broncos odds via DraftKings Sportsbook:
|Eagles||+9.5 (-110)||+290||O 46 (-110)|
|Buccaneers||-9.5 (-110)||-380||U 46 (-110)|
The short line here indicates oddsmakers have a very different view of this game than that of the general public, as Denver opened as just a 2.5-point home favorite. The line has held firm throughout the week, but one could argue that this is the fourth or fifth straight game in which oddsmakers have seemed to overvalue the Eagles a bit.
The total for this matchup opened around 45.5 and can be found in a similar area or a touch lower. It may be noteworthy that over 70 percent of the money coming in on the total is favoring the over, while over 60 percent of the total bets are on the under.
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Eagles vs. Broncos Pick
We might be wary of this short home line for the Broncos in a normal situation, but given the odd lines surrounding recent Eagles games, games featuring varied results, this may be a rare gift from oddsmakers. Denver’s defense alone is enough to keep the Broncos in most games. Denver has the league’s No. 6 defense in terms of yards allowed, well-balanced against the pass (No. 8) and run (No. 8). The unit also ranks second in points allowed, yielding just 17 points per contest.
Notably, Denver enters play on a 4-1 ATS run following a SU victory and has covered four of its last five in the head-to-head series with Philadelphia. Interestingly, that one missed cover against the Eagles came in the last meeting back in 2017 when Philadelphia won in a 51-23 rout.
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Denver’s head coach, Vic Fangio, entered this season a perfect 8-0 ATS versus sub .500 opposition off a SU loss. He also came into 2021 having led the Broncos to an 11-1 ATS record against non-division foes off a non-division game.
The Broncos, who were the beneficiaries of a soft schedule early on, are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against sub .500 opponents and have covered five of their last seven at home against teams with losing road records. In fact, Denver has covered seven straight at Mile High Stadium against opponents with a sub .400 overall record.
Unfortunately for the Eagles, they are just 3-8 ATS in their last eleven away games, despite their 3-2 SU road record this season. Philadelphia is also 1-4 ATS in its last five games on the road against teams with winning home records. Worth noting as well, the Birds have dropped seven straight on the road against teams off a SU win.
The Eagles are also just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as road dogs and have covered just three of their last 11 in November.
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Philadelphia is beat up on the back end defensively with Avonte Maddox, Darius Slay, and Rodney McLeod all missing practice time this week. If the Eagles’ pass defense cannot live up to its No. 12 ranked yardage totals here, Denver is likely to pull away and cover this spread easily.
Eagles vs. Broncos Prediction
The Broncos are just a half game out of the division lead and the two teams ahead of them (the Chiefs and Raiders) will go at it later in the day on Sunday Night Football. Even at 5-4, the Broncos sit No. 11 in the AFC, yet are just a half game behind the conference’s third-seed.
As such, a win or loss here will likely make all the difference in the trajectory of Denver’s season. The same could be said of the Eagles, maybe, but it feels like any designs of a surprise postseason run ended with their loss to the Chargers last week.
Look for the Broncos’ versatile rushing attack to drain the clock with a late lead and guide the Broncos to an all-important win.
Our Pick: Broncos (-2.5) over Eagles
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