The Top Chargers vs. Eagles Player Props Picks

chargers eagles player props picks
PHOTO CREDIT: CRAIG DUDEK

The Philadelphia Eagles will be searching for their first home win of the season when they play host to the Los Angeles Chargers this Sunday. The Eagles exploded for 44 points in a rout of the Lions last week and will try to post big numbers again against Chargers defense that has allowed 27 points or more in three straight games. With a potent offense of their own, Chargers skill position players also figure to find some success in this one.

Let’s jump into this NFL Week 9 matchup with a look at the best Chargers vs. Eagles player props picks.

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The Best Chargers vs. Eagles Player Props Picks

Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes

Justin Herbert has thrown at least one touchdown pass in every game this season. That basically gets you halfway home on this play.

He has 16 touchdown passes through seven games, placing him ninth in the league in that category and seventh in the league in touchdown passes per game. The Oregon product has spread the wealth with his scores, too, throwing nine to wide receivers, four to tight ends, and three to running backs.

Additionally, Philadelphia might prove the perfect defense for Herbert to match up against for this prop. The Eagles surprisingly have a top ten pass defense in terms of yards allowed, helping to keep this prop at 1.5 touchdowns, but that performance is a bit deceiving.

The Eagles have allowed 14 touchdown passes, which places them in the bottom half of the league, despite their top ten passing yardage defense. At has been worse in three home games, as opponents have thrown 2.7 touchdowns per game, the the league’s second worst average.

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Unsurprisingly, many of the passing touchdowns the Eagles have conceded have come against superior quarterbacks, which further drives home our point.  The Eagles allowed zero or one touchdown pass in four of their games, but two or more in the other four. When you analyze those teams, you find that the four who managed zero or one (Atlanta, San Francisco, Carolina, Detroit) are ranked 14th, 15th, 28th, and 24th in the NFL in passing yards per game. Meanwhile, the other four opponents, which all threw multiple touchdowns, (Dallas, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Las Vegas) are ranked third, fifth, first, and second in the league in passing yards.

You’re unlikely to be surprised that the Chargers rank seventh in the league in passing, placing them among that latter group.

When you look at those four teams whose quarterbacks surpassed this prop bet requirement, you realize that they are the four opponents who possess multiple star receiving threats. Los Angeles offers the same with Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and Austin Ekeler (out of the backfield).

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Jalen Hurts Over 49.5 Rushing Yards

Quarterback Jalen Hurts is the Eagles leading rusher with 432 yards, placing him 17th overall, including second amongst quarterbacks. He trails only Lamar Jackson. His 5.9 yards per rush average is second to only Jackson in the entire league, too.

Knowing that Hurts is averaging 54 rushing yards per game and 5.9 yards per carry, he would only need nine carries to ensure this prop cashes. He would be worth a pop here on those stats alone. However, there is even more reason to like him in this spot.

To begin, Hurts has run the ball at least seven times in every game, averaging over nine attempts per outing. That’s plenty to get us where we need to be for this prop at his yards per rush average. Plus, he has already topped this prop’s number in four games and reached at least 44 yards in two others, never tallying less than 30 yards in a game this season.

Similarly to Herbert above, when you look at the opponents against which Hurts succeeded and failed to top this prop’s number, something jumps off the page. The four opponents which held Hurts to less than 50 rushing yards (Dallas, Kansas City, Carolina, Tampa Bay) are ranked 16th, 22nd, 13th, and first, respectively, against the rush. Meanwhile, the four teams against which Hurts reached at least 60 yards on the ground (Atlanta, San Francisco, Las Vegas, and Detroit) are ranked 26th, 27th, 29th, and 30th, respectively, against the run.

And, you guessed it, the Chargers are the league’s worst rush defense, allowing 159.4 yards per game on the ground.

In fact, looking at mobile quarterbacks Los Angeles has faced, you find that Patrick Mahomes rushed four times for 45 yards against, Taylor Heinicke rushed three times for 17 yards despite only playing part of the game after Ryan Fitzpatrick left with an injury, and then there’s Jackson. He rushed eight times for 51 yards, enough to cash this prop.

Hurts should have no problem doing the same here.

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Austin Ekeler Over 40.5 Receiving Yards

As noted above, Austin Ekeler has proven himself as reliable a receiver as you could hope for out of the backfield.

He is also on the field almost every play because of his ability to make things happen on third down. With backup Justin Jackson questionable for this game, Ekeler’s role could even increase above the hefty workload he has enjoyed all season — particularly in what feels like a must-win game for a team with postseason aspirations.

Last season, an oft-injured Ekeler topped this prop’s receiving yardage number in four of the 10 games in which he was featured, catching 54 of his 65 targets for 403 yards. The 2019 season was probably the best representation of what he can truly do, catching 92 of 108 targets for 993 receiving yards. He topped this prop’s total in 12 of 16 games that year, including each of his team’s final six games.

Over the last two seasons, Ekeler would have cashed this prop 61.5 percent of the time. That’s not bad for an even-money wager.

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Now, let’s take a look at this season in which he has caught 33 of 42 targets. He tallied 48 yards or more yards through the air in five of his team’s last six games, plenty enough to cash this prop.

Philadelphia should prove a favorable matchup, as backs have caught at least four passes in each game against the Eagles for an average of over seven receptions a game. Six of Philadelphia’s eight opponents produced at least 39 receiving yards by backs and each of its last three had backs catch at least eight balls for 59 yards or more.

Ekeler is easily the most dangerous established receiving threat out of the backfield that Philadelphia has faced and should be on the field on nearly every down. D’Andre Swift, who leads all backs in receptions and receiving yards this season, and his Detroit teammates collected eight catches for 64 yards last Sunday against the Eagles, despite getting blown out.

Expect Ekeler to sail past this prop’s total.

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