Sunday’s game between the Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints will have important playoff implications for both teams. The Eagles have yet to win a home game in four tries at Lincoln Financial Field, but they enter this matchup as favorites against a banged up Saints bunch likely to be once again led by backup Trevor Siemian at quarterback.
Let’s jump into this NFL Week 11 matchup with a look at the best Saints vs. Eagles player props picks.
Saints vs. Eagles Player Props Picks
Trevor Siemian Under 218.5 Passing Yards
Trevor Siemian has been a breath of fresh air for this New Orleans Saints passing offense since he took over for the injured Jameis Winston three weeks ago. Siemian threw for 249 and 298 yards, respectively, in his first two starts, the third and first highest totals by a Saints quarterback this season. However, we do not believe this game will result in a similar performance.
Despite Siemian’s recent yardage output, New Orleans is still the second worst passing offense in the league at just 202.2 yards per game. It is true that since Week 4 Saints starting quarterbacks have topped this prop’s number in five of their six games, but there is more to the story.
Trevor Siemian was clutch on this touchdown pic.twitter.com/wJqP2IOxGb
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) November 14, 2021
Those six opponents are currently ranked 19th, 30th, 29th, 22nd, 15th, and 27th against the pass, respectively, whereas New Orleans’ first three foes currently sit third, first, and seventh against the pass. The Saints’ starting quarterback in those games (Winston) tallied just 148, 111, and 128 yards.
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Now, New Orleans faces a Philadelphia pass defense that is currently 13th in passing yards allowed per game (233.3), better than each of the Saints’ last six opponents and, frankly, better than even that ranking implies.
The passing yardage totals posted by the Eagles defense has been bloated a bit by some big games by Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, David Carr, and Justin Herbert, the league’s second, third, fourth, and sixth ranked passers in terms of net passing yardage per game.
Heck, the Eagles have also already faced the 11th, 12th, and 14th ranked quarterbacks in that category, allowing just 164, 238, and 226 yards, respectively, to those guys. That’s seven quarterbacks in the top 14 spots in passing yards per game that the Eagles have faced through 10 contests. Against quarterbacks ranked 21st or worse, Philadelphia allowed just 164, 189, and 222 yards.
Siemian and this New Orleans pass offense have proven they belong lumped in with the latter group. He has limited weapons outside and no dynamic pass catching tight end, and the focal point of the team’s offense, Alvin Kamara, is out again this week. It’s hard to imagine Siemian finding his way over this prop’s yardage requirement in a game that promises to be short and low-scoring with both teams ranked among the bottom eight in total plays per game.
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Adam Trautman Over 25.5 Receiving Yards
With Alvin Karmara out, someone is going to have to catch some balls in the passing game. We believe the biggest beneficiary could be the tight end Adam Trautman.
Trautman currently sits fourth on the team in targets (32), catches (20), and receiving yards (183). However, his relevance in the offense has increased as the season has progressed. In the first four games this season in which he was utilized, Trautman caught six of 10 targets for just 64 total yards, with 32 yards coming on one play. However, over his last four games, the Dayton product has hauled in 14 of 22 passes thrown his way for 119 total yards.
Saints TE Adam Trautman created the most separation of any WR/TE in Week 10 (minus MNF) with 6.9 yards on average.
— Larry Holder (@LarryHolder) November 15, 2021
In fact, he caught nine of 13 targets in his last two outings for 79 total yards with Siemian under center. He has tallied at least 32 receiving yards in four of his last five games, including each of his last three on the road, all plenty enough to cash this prop’s requirement.
Be sure to check out our Saints vs. Eagles betting pick.
Trautman will line up against the perfect opponent to have a chance to cash this prop. The Eagles, despite their impressive numbers against the pass this season, have struggled against opposing tight ends. In the team’s last six games, 10 tight ends have topped this yardage total — with at least one doing so in each game.
At least one opposing tight end has reached this number in eight of the team’s games with 13 different players accomplishing the feat. Further, at least one opposing tight end has caught four or more balls in every game against Philly in 2021. If that trend holds true, Trautman would only need about seven yards a catch to cash this prop.
Ironically, the only two starting tight ends not to crest this prop’s short number have been George Kittle and Travis Kelce, implying extra attention paid to those stars by Philadelphia. Adam Trautman will likely never get mentioned alongside those two elite names and is correspondingly unlikely to get much focused defensive attention here, allowing him to pull down plenty of catches to get this wager cashed.
Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown Scorer
At a glance, this pick looks daunting, as New Orleans currently owns the league’s best run-stopping unit, allowing just 72.9 yards per game on the ground. However, the Saints have managed to dodge each of the NFL’s top four rushing quarterbacks until now.
A dual threat quarterback drastically changes a team’s rushing yardage averages, as exemplified by the fact the top four rushing quarterbacks play for teams currently ranked first, third, fifth, and 10th in rushing yards per game.
The Eagles are one of those teams, currently the NFL’s third-best in rushing yards per game, despite an obstinate refusal to run the ball by head coach Nick Sirianni for a large chunk of the early season. Jalen Hurts is to thank for much of that, with 549 rushing yards to his name, the second most by a quarterback, behind only Lamar Jackson. His presence in this game alone should offset the Saints’ elite rush defense numbers to date.
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However, facing such a stout run-stopping unit, Sirianni may want, or even need, to get creative inside the red zone in order to produce touchdowns. The Eagles employed that tactic against Tampa Bay earlier this season. The Buccaneers, who own 2021’s second best run-stuffing unit and have dominated the NFL in that category for several seasons now, saw Hurts scramble for scores from two and six yards out. The Eagles quarterback scored two more the week prior against Carolina, the league’s second best total yardage defense.
Jalen Hurts gives the Eagles the lead 👀
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 10, 2021
Hurts has five rushing touchdowns already this season, tied for the most in the NFL among quarterbacks. We won’t be surprised at all to see Hurts use his legs for at least one score in this one.
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