The Best NFL Week 14 Upset Picks
More chaos ensued around the NFL last weekend as all six underdogs who covered also won their games outright. As more upsets are sure to go down in NFL Week 14, we scoured the Sunday slate and isolated two teams we believe are also capable of outright wins, or, at the very least, covering the spread.
Let’s take a look at our two favorite NFL Week 14 upset picks, complete with betting analysis and ATS predictions.
STATES: OH, MD, AZ, LA, CO, IL, IN, MI, PA, VA, NJ, TN, IA, WV
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NFL Week 14 Upset Picks
Washington Over Cowboys
Washington has rattled off four straight wins, all as underdogs, to climb to 6-6 and a current NFL playoff spot. Now, they host the well-rested Cowboys, who beat the Saints last Thursday.
Meanwhile, Ron Rivera’s group outlasted the Raiders in Las Vegas by a 17-15 final. Suddenly, a once struggling Washington defense has now held five straight opponents to 21 points or fewer, allowing just 15 points to each of its last two foes.
Rivera has been very successful against the NFC East since taking charge in Washington, leading the team to a 5-2 SU and ATS mark, including a sweep of Dallas last season, despite not being favored in either matchup. In fact, Washington has covered 10 straight division games against winning opposition after back-to-back straight up wins.
ATS Betting Trends
That pairs up nicely for us here with a trend showing Dallas having lost nine straight division games ATS as favorites against .500 or better division opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS victories. In fact, Dallas is also just 4-17 ATS in its last 21 division games when entering play off a SU conference win.
Division underdogs have fared well across the NFL this season, covering 57 percent of their 53-game sample space entering Week 14. Perhaps more notably, conference underdogs of seven points or fewer have gone 63-33 ATS in 2021, a 66 percent return rate.
This all bodes well for Washington, given the dog in this head-to-head series is 29-13 ATS over the last 42 meetings.
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) December 9, 2021
It is especially true when you consider Washington is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games off an outright underdog win and has covered six straight as home underdogs of less than six points against teams with win percentages above .600. With WFT having covered five of its last six against any winning team, Football Team should be in excellent position to pull off a fifth straight outright upset win here.
Clearly a streaky team, Washington will look to build upon its current 8-2 ATS run after SU victories and 7-2 ATS mark after covering the spread in its previous outing. Dallas could be ripe for the picking, too, as the Cowboys are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games against an opponent off back-to-back SU and ATS wins, with the latter coming as a dog.
Cowboys vs. Football Team Pick
The Cowboys’ offensive numbers look good this season, but the numbers were largely bloated by its early season success. Now, Tony Pollard and Cedrick Wilson, two key pieces to the team’s success, are questionable to play and quarterback Dak Prescott, who has not looked himself since his return from injury, may be forced to try to win this one with his arm against the league’s third best run-stopping unit.
Washington quarterback Taylor Heinicke has done enough to prove he can keep his team in games and now will play with the freedom of knowing the job is his for the remainder of the season. Both he and Antonio Gibson should be able to keep the sticks moving against the NFL’s sixth worst yardage defense and potentially close the division race to just a game with a home win, moving the home team in this head-to-head series to 6-2 ATS over the last eight meetings.
Our Pick: Washington +4.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook -110)
Jets Over Saints
The New Orleans Saints are in a tailspin. Since starting quarterback Jameis Winston went down with an ACL tear in the win over the Bucs in late October, the Saints have lost five straight games. Trevor Siemian began that losing streak before giving way in Week 13 to Taysom Hill, who promptly threw four interceptions in a loss to Dallas.
Now, while Alvin Kamara looks set to return to game action, New Orleans has so many other key injuries on offense that it may not even matter. The Saints are without Winston, wide receiver Michael Thomas, leading receiver Deonte Harris, Pro Bowl guard Andrus Peat, backup running back, Mark Ingram, starting tight end Adam Trautman. Heck, they’re ever without top kicker Will Lutz. Add to the heap that both starting tackles are currently listed as questionable and you have to imagine this team is going to have a difficult time putting up points against any opponent.
To put a finer point on it, Kamara still leads New Orleans in receptions with 32, despite missing four games. His yards per rush average is easily the lowest of his career this season (3.7). He was already blatantly overused before his injury, but with a beat up line and little available talent elsewhere at the offensive skill positions, the Jets can afford to pay exorbitant amounts of attention to Kamara without a high risk of getting beaten elsewhere. At the end of the day, despite the Jets’ defensive struggles this season, they are facing a bottom ten offense in terms of yards, one that has just 23 total points in its last two outings.
Sure, the New York Jets are a poor team, one of the league’s worst. However, if you watch this group play, they compete in every game from start to finish. You saw the passion from head coach Robert Saleh last week when some late calls against the Eagles failed to go his team’s way. This Jets team wants to win, and no team with a record worse than the Saints has beaten the Jets by more than one score this season.
— New York Jets (@nyjets) December 5, 2021
Rookie quarterback Zach Wilson gets more experience with each passing week, and he now gets to face a defense that has conceded at least 23 points in six straight games, allowing an average of 29.2 points per game during that stretch. The Jets have quietly scored 17 or more points in six straight games, as well as eight of their last nine, averaging 21.9 points per game in those nine outings. If New York can reach that 21-23 point range here against this scuffling defense, the Saints would have to score 27 points to approach a cover, something they have done just once since Winston went down.
ATS Betting Trends
New York, despite being a laughingstock for years now, has been bankable in the later stages of seasons when oddsmakers start to heap more burden upon its opposition. The Jets actually covered five of their last six December games heading into this season. More specifically, in games 13-16 of the schedule, the Jets have gone 14-5 ATS the last 19 times they were set as underdogs off a SU and ATS loss.
The Saints, meanwhile, have failed to cover any of their last four games against losing teams and are just 1-5 ATS in their last six as a favorite. New Orleans is just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 attempts as road favorites of less than 14 points against an opponent off a SU loss by 14 or more points.
Saints vs. Jets Pick
Worse than those trends, however, is the disturbing fact that Saints head coach Sean Payton, usually reliable against novice coaches, is 0-4 SU and ATS this season against first or second-year head coaches.
This likely speaks to how important Drew Brees was to this team’s success, as well as the extreme state of disarray the Saints’ injuries have caused. New Orleans has no business laying this large number on the road to anyone when, right now, we aren’t even sure they remember how to win a football game.
Our Pick: New York Jets +5.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook -110)