On Monday night, the Sixers will take on the Memphis Grizzlies at the Wells Fargo Center. The Sixers made another ugly mess of the first half of Saturday night’s game against the Sacramento Kings, then pulled off another escape act to win by two in a game where they were favored by 11. The win, combined with some other results that went their way, catapulted the Sixers from sixth to third in the Eastern Conference. The Sixers are 30-19. The Grizzlies are putting together an under-the-radar exceptional season. At 35-17, the Grizzlies are third in the Western Conference and four and a half games clear of the Utah Jazz, the team behind them in the standings. Then again, the Grizzlies are six and a half games behind the Phoenix Suns, who are an astounding 40-9 — and who will be here in eight days.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Grizzlies betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this January 31, 2022 matchup.

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Sixers vs. Grizzlies Betting Pick (January 31, 2022)

We learned something today. We learned that Joel Embiid, at least with reference to this game against this opponent on this night, is worth seven points with reference to the point spread all by himself.

This morning, the Sixers were a 3.5-point favorite against the Grizzlies. That made sense, we suppose, and some of us here even said, “Ooh, Sixers line, the Grizzlies are the better team and the Sixers are favored by that much.” Then, this afternoon, the Sixers announced that Embiid would be out of action tonight not because he is injured, but because he needs “rest.” And the line promptly flipped to Grizzlies -3.5.

Embiid had played 21 straight games prior to this one, and because he was on an unreal heater cranking out 30+ point games, he was playing a ton of minutes. People who bought tickets to this game are rightfully aggravated — especially if they also had Sixers/Lakers tickets on Thursday night and didn’t get to see LeBron James — but at some level, this cannot really be considered a huge surprise.

This is a player who has never played more than 64 games in an NBA season. Last year, Embiid played 51 games in the shortened season, which means he missed 21. This season, Embiid has played in 38 of the Sixers’ 49 games. He’s ahead of his normal pace in terms of games played. A quick look at the upcoming schedule shows that the Sixers have games in the next three weeks against the Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers and Milwaukee Bucks, i.e., three of the four teams the Sixers are battling at the top of the conference. Embiid’s absence makes tonight’s game a damp squib, but at 30,000 feet, this night off for Embiid probably makes a lot of sense.

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Sixers vs. Grizzlies Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Grizzlies at FanDuel Sportsbook:

  • Point Spread: Sixers +3.5 (-106), Grizzlies -3.5 (-114)
  • Moneyline: Sixers +144, Grizzlies -172
  • Total: 218

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Over 218 Total Points (+342, FanDuel Sportsbook)

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To be clear, we do not — do not — like the Sixers to win this game. If they are going to, though, they are going to need to have one of those nights where all the shooters hit a bunch of threes and they get a lot of their offense at the free throw line. The Grizzlies used to be a walk it up/use the whole shot clock team, but as their personnel has improved, their scoring totals have risen. They have scored at least 114 points in six of their last seven outings.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Ja Morant Over 26.5 Points (-120, Caesars Sportsbook)

We kind of can’t believe this prop total is this low. Here are Morant’s last six point totals from January 19 to January 29: 33, 38, 35, 41, 30, 34. Mix in the fact that Embiid won’t be in the paint to dissuade Morant from his preferred rim attacks, and Morant could well get to 27 points in three quarters.

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Tyrese Maxey Over 1.5 Three-Point Shots Made (+100, DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Maxey is taking an average of 3.5 three-point shots this season and making an average of 1.4 per game. Embiid’s absence is going to have a significant effect on this game, and one of those effects is likely to be a concerted effort by the Sixers to make up for Embiid’s absence with some long-range bombing. Maxey is going to be part of that.

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Andre Drummond Over 11.5 Rebounds (-105, FOX Bet)

Earlier this season, Embiid missed a series of games and during Embiid’s absence, Drummond’s rebounding numbers went vertical. Essentially, Drummond is a player who could still conceivably start at center, though probably not for a winning team. On the nights where Embiid is absent, Drummond draws on those years of being a starter to, for a game or two, revert to the glass cleaner he was earlier in his career.

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Sixers vs. Grizzlies Prediction

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The Sixers would have had trouble staying with the Grizzlies with Embiid. Without Embiid, the Sixers are a home underdog for the first time in a long while, and it’s on merit. The problem with building your team around a transcendent superstar is that, when he’s unavailable, what’s left is a lot of supporting players who don’t project to be capable of fully compensating for the superstar’s absence.

Pick: Grizzlies -3.5 (-112, Barstool Sportsbook)

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