On Friday night, the Sixers welcome the Cleveland Cavaliers to the Wells Fargo Center. The Sixers are the talk of the NBA these days. They have won four in a row, three of which featured star turns from new Philadelphia folk hero James Harden. The Sixers have climbed all the way to second in the Eastern Conference, with a record of 38-23 which places them 2.5 games behind the Miami Heat. The Cavaliers are going the other way, having lost five of their last six to fall to 36-26, sixth in the conference.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Cavaliers betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this March 4, 2022 matchup.

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Sixers vs. Cavaliers Betting Pick (March 4, 2022)

We are going to find out a lot more about the Sixers than we already know (which is a lot) in the next two weeks.

No one loves watching the Sixers crack the Knicks in the mouth twice in four days more than us. It was delightful. Unfortunately, playtime is, for the immediate future, over. The next seven games present a lot of different sorts of challenges. Tonight’s game against the Cavaliers, for example, screams “trap game.” The Cavaliers have been crippled by injuries and, at the same time, have sort of regressed to what they were thought to be when the season started. But they’re still dangerous and they still have a lot to play for.

After tonight, stuff gets sticky. Tomorrow night, the Sixers will be in Miami to play the second half of a home/road back-to-back with the conference-leading Heat. Assuming that the Sixers will be the team to try to chase the Heat down for the #1 seed in the East, that game has significant implications. From there, the Sixers come home to play the Chicago Bulls (currently behind the Sixers only on winning percentage, third in the conference) and, after that, well, as you may have heard, the Brooklyn Nets are coming to town.

After the Nets game, the Sixers have another back-to-back in Orlando/home to Denver. This stretch is capped off on March 16 with a trip to Cleveland to take on the Cavs again. That’s seven games in 13 days, six of them against playoff teams, two of them against the other powers in the Eastern Conference.

Playtime is, indeed, over.

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Sixers vs. Cavaliers Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Cavaliers at FanDuel Sportsbook:

  • Point Spread: Sixers -7 (-114), Cavaliers +7 (-106)
  • Moneyline: Sixers -300, Cavaliers +240
  • Total: 218.5

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Under 218.5 Total Points (+146, FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Sixers and the over has paid off consistently lately because the Sixers were playing relatively poor opposition and because James Harden’s assimilation into the offense occurred almost instantaneously. We gave the over a look…and we don’t love it. The primary reason that the Cavaliers are above .500, much less in a playoff position, is that they are the best defensive team in the league based on points allowed (103 per game). Add in that they have the 26th-ranked offense in the league, and you have a recipe for a game where the Sixers end up somewhere around 110 points and the Cavaliers struggle to get to 100. Looks like under to us.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Joel Embiid Over 40.5 Points Plus Rebounds (-115, Caesars Sportsbook)

We haven’t run with this prop yet this season, but the time is here. You probably don’t look at this sort of total all that often (we haven’t), but Embiid’s points plus rebounds totals in his last twelve games are: 39, 46, 44, 56, 28, 54, 44, 46, 50, 40, 41 and 48. So he was over 40.5 on this total in nine of his last twelve. We’ll take a bite at that tonight.

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Darius Garland Over 19.5 Points (-145, DraftKings Sportsbook)

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We don’t much care for -145 either, but that’s what’s on offer here. There may be some value in shopping this one around and seeing if you can get Garland for over 20.5 or even 21.5 at a more attractive price, because he has scored at least 24 points in his last five outings. The risk here is tied to the fact that Garland missed seven games in February with a bone bruise in his back. But he felt well enough to score 33 two nights ago.

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James Harden Over 10.5 Assists (-125, FOX Bet)

In fairness to us, how were we really supposed to know that Harden’s assist totals were going to be this good, this soon? Harden came to Philadelphia with a reputation as a ball stopper and a shoot first guy. His career assists per game average is a reasonable but not all that gaudy 6.7 per game. And it’s not like he spent his career playing with guys who couldn’t score. For whatever reason, this season Harden is averaging 10.3 assists per game and he has been in double digits in assists in nine of his last 11 games. So we trust him in this spot tonight.

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Sixers vs. Cavaliers Prediction

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We think this one is going to be a sweat, because as noted above, the Cavaliers are a very good defensive team and because their game plan is almost certainly going to be tied to slowing the Sixers down and keeping them off the free throw line. It’s not that we think the Sixers will lose the game — we don’t. It’s the seven points that are a little problematic. Still, the Sixers are too hot right now to stray from. But whereas the last two games against the Knicks were enormous profit-taking opportunities, tonight might be a night to be a moderate instead of a big spender.

Pick: Sixers -7 (-110, Barstool Sportsbook)

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