Sixers vs. Heat Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (March 21, 2022)

On Monday night, the Sixers will host the Miami Heat. The Sixers played very poorly last night in a home loss to the Toronto Raptors. The loss dropped the Sixers to 43-27, three and a half games behind the Heat. The Eastern Conference-leading Heat have opened up a three game lead at the top of the standings.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Heat betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this March 21, 2022 matchup.

Sixers vs. Heat Betting Pick (March 21, 2022)

James Harden has played 11 games with the Sixers. The team is 7-4 in those 11 games, which is certainly better than having a losing record. Unfortunately, those four losses have come in the team’s past eight games, and three of those losses (at Miami on March 5, home to the Brooklyn Nets on March 10, last night at home against Toronto) came against teams that the Sixers could face in the playoffs. Harden didn’t play in the Miami loss, so that one isn’t on him.

Harden’s arrival was splashy. He is doing more or less what he was expected to do. He has attempted nearly 10 free throws per game and averaged over 11 assists per game as a Sixer. The expected scoring is there too, as Harden has scored over 22 points per game. That’s right on line with his season average of 22.5 points per game. So Harden is the player the Sixers thought they were acquiring.

Still undecided is whether Harden is the player who can take the Sixers on a deep playoff run. Those losses against the Nets and the Raptors coincidentally came in games where Harden didn’t score 20 points or have double digit assists.

Three of the Sixers’ next five games are against teams with better records. As noted above, the Heat are three and a half games ahead of the Sixers. The Sixers will play the Phoenix Suns out west on March 27. On March 29, the Sixers will host the Bucks, who are currently half a game ahead of the Sixers. None of these games individually can fairly be a measuring stick on Harden. Collectively, though…maybe.

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Sixers vs. Heat Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Heat at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Point Spread: Sixers +2 (-110), Heat -2 (-110)
Moneyline: Sixers +112, Heat -132
Total: 215.5

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Under 215.5 Total Points (+285, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Sixers are playing the back half of a home back-to-back in this game after last night’s game was comfortably under its total. The Heat are rested and boast the fourth-best defense in the league based on points per game against (104.8 points per game). We’re not picking the Sixers to win this game, but if they do win, it’ll probably be a grind.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Jimmy Butler Under 30.5 Points, Assists and Rebounds (-115, Caesars Sportsbook)

Butler is questionable for tonight’s game, but this prop is being offered, so the book thinks Butler will play. He has missed four of his team’s last eight games, and in the last six games Butler did play, he posted 30 or fewer total points, assists and rebounds four times. We think Butler’s minutes may be limited and his effectiveness may therefore be impacted.

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Duncan Robinson Over 9.5 Points (-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)

We can’t figure this one out. Robinson has averaged 12 points per game for his career and is scoring 11.4 points per game this season. In four of his last six games, Robinson has had at least 12 points. We think double digits is almost a foregone conclusion here.

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Joel Embiid Over 27.5 Points (-125, FOX Bet)

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Last night’s subpar shooting night broke a four-game streak where Embiid had scored 30+ points in each game. Embiid is averaging 29.8 points per game this season. We’ll put it this way: Any time this prop lands at 27.5 or less, we’re probably taking it.

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Sixers vs. Heat Prediction

The Heat are a tough matchup for just about everybody. Their record proves that. The Heat are an especially rough matchup for the Sixers. The Heat have already beaten the Sixers twice this season and can all but eliminate the Sixers as a competitor for the Eastern Conference’s top seed if they win this game. There isn’t a compelling reason to pick the Sixers tonight, so we won’t.

Pick: Heat moneyline (-137, Barstool Sportsbook)

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