On Saturday night, the Sixers will be in Miami to take on the Heat, the current leaders of the Eastern Conference. The Sixers are in second place, two games back. You probably knew all of this already, so let’s get going.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Heat betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this March 5, 2022 matchup.

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Sixers vs. Heat Betting Pick (March 5, 2022)

With the playoff picture quickly rounding into shape, and with the Sixers suddenly thrusting themselves not just into the Eastern Conference title picture, but in fact the NBA Finals winner discussion, Sixers fans are focused on who the main threats to a Sixers playoff run are. There are quite a few worthy candidates.

The discussion really needs to start with the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks are the defending NBA champions, and like the Sixers they have a player (Giannis Antetokounmpo) who is essentially unguardable and who can, on his night, win a game for his team essentially by himself. After the Bucks, you have the traditional lurkers.

The Brooklyn Nets are somehow still in this discussion despite being a .500 team through like 70% of the season. They remain in the discussion because Kevin Durant is still a Net. Others are still living in fear of the Boston Celtics, who have eliminated the Sixers with prejudice in recent seasons and who have potent scorers in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown and Embiid’s Kryptonite in Al Horford.

The Bucks, Nets and Celtics are all worthy candidates…but the Heat are the real problem here.

If the season ended today, the Heat would have home court in an Eastern Conference Finals series. Jimmy Butler, who was a folk hero in Philadelphia before James Harden became one, still features for the Heat. They have a low post monster of their own in Bam Adebayo, they have shooters, they have defenders.

Above all, they have probably the best coach in the Eastern Conference. Erik Spoelstra won two rings with LeBron James, and it was easy when that happened to say “well, anyone who wore a suit and rolled the balls out at practice would have won those rings.” Since then, though, Spoelstra has won the Eastern Conference twice and has had two sub-.500 seasons in the past eight years, often running teams that didn’t have plus plus talent.

The Heat are going to be a problem. Tonight, and down the line.

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Sixers vs. Heat Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Heat at FanDuel Sportsbook:

  • Point Spread: Sixers +4 (-110), Heat -4 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Sixers +148, Heat -176
  • Total: 214.5

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Under 214.5 Total Points (+349, FanDuel Sportsbook)

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This would have been “Sixers and the over” until the team announced today that James Harden is out for tonight’s game. The Sixers are playing the back half of a back-to-back, they’re on the road, they don’t have Harden…if they win this game, they’ll do it by controlling tempo and keeping the score down. Not that we think they will win, because we don’t.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Tyrese Maxey Over 4.5 Assists (-145, Caesars Sportsbook)

Not a great return, obviously, but the league is seeing what Maxey is doing night in and night out, especially with Harden involved. Maxey will have to play the point for most of tonight’s game with Harden out, and he could get to five assists by halftime.

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Joel Embiid Over 29.5 Points (-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)

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If you look at Embiid’s game log for this season, he sprinkles in a quiet game (like last night) now and again, but he isn’t prone to long stretches of low productivity. Without Harden on the floor, the Sixers will go back to how they played before Harden came to town, i.e., they’ll run about 80% of the offense through Embiid and hope he carries them. He could hit the prop in a loss, you know.

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Tobias Harris Over 16.5 Points (-125, FOX Bet)

No one is more acutely aware of the impact James Harden is having on the Sixers than Tobias Harris. When you’re making $30 million a year and suddenly find yourself the fourth scoring option on a team that in recent games has had to force feed you the ball to get you into double digits, that’s, well, something. Anyway, if Harris is going to have a big game between now and the end of the season, it’s going to be on a night like tonight when Harden or one of the other primary options is out.

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Sixers vs. Heat Prediction

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It’s not that the Sixers can’t beat good teams on the road without James Harden. The Sixers beat the Bucks in Milwaukee right before the All-Star break. Thing is, now that they’ve experienced life with Harden, his absence is going to resonate more than it did when they’d never played with him. The Sixers have won five in a row, and this is a road game after a win last night. There are no “acceptable” losses in the NBA, but this is about as close as it gets.

Pick: Heat -4 (-110, Barstool Sportsbook)

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