Following a frustrating 6-2 loss in 10 innings to the Chicago Cubs Saturday, the Phillies (49-45) fell back out of a playoff spot in the National League.

They now trail the St. Louis Cardinals by one game for the final spot and will look to avoid a sweep at the hands of the lowly Cubs today with a nearly start of 12:05PM.

Now that I got the particular out of the way, I want to share some numbers with you.

Since Bryce Harper fractured his thumb in San Diego last month, the Phillies have played 22 games. They have gone a respectable 12-10 in those games with a plus-15 run differential (95-80). The hope was always to stay afloat until Harper could get back, and so far they’ve done that.

But the Phillies have been lucky. Quite lucky, in fact.

They’ve either been buoyed by sensational pitching or have pulled out wins from the jaws of sure defeat.

Because their offense, overall, has been terrible. Some individual players have been good. Others passable. Others dreadful. And right now, the lineup construction is not conducive to helping them win games. It needs a facelift – either an influx of a new bat or two, or a shuffling of the deck, or both.

Because since Bryce’s injury, the Phillies have posted a slash line of .172/.232/.589 (this includes the game in which he got hurt).

That’s pitiful.

They’re still scoring 4.3 runs per game, but that’s a little misleading. That’s because the Phillies offense has been either feast or famine.

And lately, it’s been a lot of famine. In the last 11 games, the Phillies have only exceeded that 4.3 runs average once – the 10-0 shellacking of Miami two games before the All-Star break. Otherwise, the Phillies have scored just 22 runs in the other 10 games.

This lineup, with Kyle Schwarber leading off, Nick Castellanos hitting third and a a band of banjos strumming along at the bottom of the order, isn’t cutting the mustard.

Let’s break them down, shall we?

SCHWARBOMB

June seems so long ago, doesn’t it?

Schwarber is mired in a 4-for-49 slump (.082). Against the Cubs Saturday, he didn’t even make contact, striking out three times and walking once. It’s his ability to get on base, even when he’s hitting that makes him desirable at the top of the lineup, but he’s not even doing that. Since the Harper injury, Schwarber has a .237 OBP and his .777 OPS is only that high because he has 10 homers in 93 plate appearances. But how much have the 10 homers helped if most of them are solo shots? It’s time to try someone else at the top, and move Schwarber into an RBI spot so that if he hits a homer once ever 9.3 times he steps to the plate, maybe it results in multiple runs.

RHYS LIGHTNING

We’re used to this by now with Hoskins. He’s a streaky hitter. He can get on a roll – and earlier this season we saw that it can be longer than two weeks – but what is just as likely is he can go ice cold for an extended period of time. Since the Harper injury, Hoskins is slashing .215/.315/.834.

Like Schwarber, his OPS is elevated by power. Hoskins has six homers in those 22 games, second on the team behind Schwarber. He also has six doubles, meaning 12 of his 17 hits have been for extra bases. And yet, he has just seven RBI. That’s hard to do with six homer and six doubles. But without the protection of Harper behind him in the lineup, he isn’t getting as many good pitches to hit, and when he gets them, there’s usually nobody on base. He’s another guy who needs to be in a run producing spot until Harper gets back, because he’s also not getting on base enough for the top of the lineup.

https://twitter.com/BrodesMedia/status/1551006659341963264

“STUPID QUESTION”

I’m sure everyone is going crazy over Nick Castellanos response to a question about him hearing boos last night, and the 6ABC camera catching some post interview fireworks with Castellanos and a reporter.

Unless it’s a big deal confrontation between someone from a team and a member of the media, it’s really a non-story. Heated exchanges happen in locker rooms and clubhouses and over the phone all the time. When you are around each other and constantly asking questions or having to answer questions, it’s easy to get frustrated with one another. I once had a general manager call me at 7am when I was driving my kids to school and he dropped the F-bomb a good 20 times in the call before hanging up, prompting my then 10-year-old daughter to ask me, “Daddy, why was that man so angry with you?”

That man was back answering my questions later that day. He felt he needed to get something off his chest. I responded when I saw him, and all was well.

Any media member worth his/her salt will stand up for themselves, and should, as long as their end of the argument is justified.

Asking Castellanos if he’s hearing the boos is justified, as he’s not lived up to his expectations. That said, believe it or not, he leads the Phillies in hits (23) since the Harper injury. But it’s an empty stat. The Phillies aren’t paying Castellanos to be a singles hitter. He’s not getting on base enough and he has just two extra-base hits in that span. His slash line is ugly and his .586 OPS is certainly not conducive of a No. 3 hitter. He needs to be better. Now.

It should also be noted that the video that everyone is watching is edited and is missing pieces that could add a little context.

BLAME CANADA

Yeah, J.T. Realmuto got in some hot water last week when he couldn’t play games in Canada because of his Covid-19 vaccination status. He also made a silly remark about money that rubbed some people the wrong way.

Sometimes we focus on the wrong shit, man.

Instead, Realmuto has been one of the few Phillies hitting since the loss of Harper.

In fact, he’s been their best hitter, if you go by OPS. Since Harper’s injury, Realmuto is hitting .322 with a .959 OPS. The Phillies should ride this hot streak and move Realmuto up in the lineup so that maybe there can be runners on base if Schwarber or Hoskins hit a homer or Castellanos gets another opposite field single.

The Phillies experimented with Realmuto as a leadoff hitter before. In his career, he’s batted leadoff 45 times. His average in those games? How about .313? He won’t be in the lineup Sunday after catching Saturday night (unless he’s the DH, or Hoskins gets a game off and Realmuto plays first), but maybe he should find himself in the leadoff spot once the Phillies face the red-hot Braves.

https://twitter.com/BrodesMedia/status/1550994942918643712

LONG BALL HALL

How many times have we had a minor league player come up to the majors, have a modicum of success, fall in love with him too quickly, and then be disappointed when he falls off the table and is nothing more than a marginal player?

I’m not saying that’s going to happen to Darick Hall. It might. It might not. But right now, he’s a pretty productive player for the Phillies. And it’s not just via the long ball, as per his nickname.

No, Hall has come through with some clutch hits for the Phillies that have stayed in the yard. He could certainly take a few more pitches and earn some more walks. He also does have a lot of swing and miss in his bat, but he’s been giving the Phillies mostly competitive at bats since being called up. He’s posting a .909 OPS with 11 of his 16 hits going for extra bases. His five homers are third on the Phillies in that span. His double Saturday started a seventh inning rally that should have produced more than just one run.

BOHM OR BUST

Saturday was a game Alec Bohm would like to forget. It started well, as he singled in his first at bat. From there though his night went like this:

  • Picked off first
  • grounded into a fielder’s choice
  • grounded into a double play to kill a rally
  • off line throw on a play at the plate that may have nailed the runner if it were accurate

https://twitter.com/BrodesMedia/status/1551013404344729606

  • missed a tough grounder down the line, that certainly wasn’t an error, but is a play that good defensive third basemen make
  • completely whiffed on a would-be double play grounder in the 10th inning that allowed the Cubs to blow the inning open

https://twitter.com/BrodesMedia/status/1551015510438985729

  • grounded out in the bottom of the 10th as the Phillies tried to mount a futile comeback

All that said, Bohm has been one of the Phillies’ consistent hitters since the Harper injury. In fact, he leads the team in both batting average and on base percentage since Bryce went out of the lineup with a .951 OPS. And if you remember back earlier this season, Bohm had a short stint as a No. 2 hitter for the Phillies. It started well, but then he hit an icy patch and was dropped back down to the bottom of the lineup.

If he’s going this well, might it not be a good idea to try and move him back up toward the top, protect him with a power hitter, and see if he can continue to produce until Harper gets back.

BARREN AT THE BOTTOM

The rest of the team has come up really small offensively since Harper went out of the lineup. Wait, Bryson Stott has been fine. He is getting on base (.351 OBP) which is a good sign for the young player and his .250 batting average since Harper went out has been a vast improvement. He’s fine for the bottom of the order.

Beyond that, it’s been a lot of mediocrity and inconsistency.

Matt Vierling has shown valuable versatility, but his .236/.323/.650 slash is, in a word, average.

Odubel Herrera has hit .258 since Harper went out, which, believe it or not, is fifth-best on the team. But that’s more an indictment of the team than praise for Herrera. His .303 OBP and .561 OPS don’t cut the mustard.

And then there’s Didi Gregorius. Since we’re looking at just the last month, it’s worth noting he has a .499 OPS. And that includes his one home run that he has hit this year. That’s one home run… in 200 plate appearances! He’s also a below average fielder at shortstop and he absolutely can’t hit lefties a lick (.167 BA).

So, it was curious to see him stroll to the plate with two on and no out in the seventh inning against lefty Stephen Brault.

Phillies manager Rob Thomson explained that he stuck with Didi there because it was a bunt situation and Didi is at least a solid bunter. The bunt was on. He took a ball… and a strike. Then, on 1-1, he swung hard, and missed.

Thomson said the bunt was still on, but that Didi noticed Cubs first baseman Alfonso Rivas charging hard, and Phillies hitters have free reign to pull back the bunt and try to slug the ball if a corner infielder is coming in hard. Didi made that choice. Failed to make contact, then struck out, never advancing the runners. Bohm then grounds into the double play. If the runners move up, there is no double play, the Phillies lead 2-1 and likely hold on for a victory as pitching was excellent.

Instead, Didi didn’t deliver. Which has become a thing.

Meanwhile, there is a pending UFA shortstop in Colorado named Jose Iglesias who is playing almost every day, hitting .299, who could be had cheap at the trade deadline on August 2.

And before you look at those stats and assume they are being elevated by playing in Coors Field, Iglesias is hitting only .245 at Coors Field. Everywhere else? How about .354/.388/.840.

Defensively, he’s only average at shortstop. According to Baseball Savant, he has a -1 Outs Above Average fielding the position, which has him tied for 18th among 36 qualified shortstops. Still, it’s a vast improvement from Gregorius, who, as minus-6 ranks 35th of 36.

Iglesias, 32,  was traded at the deadline once before in has career. Back in 2013 from the Boston Red Sox to the Detroit Tigers (as part of a three-team deal that included the Chicago White Sox). The GM who acquired Iglesias at the time? Dave Dombrowski.

A NEW LINEUP?

Thomson said they’ve been talking about it, so it’s possible that there is one as soon as Sunday afternoon. But again, likely without Realmuto.

I’d expect Vierling to go into the leadoff spot, bumping everyone down. a spot or two. Stubbs will likely catch and hit ninth.

But come Monday, when Realmuto is back in the lineup, maybe give this one a try though, at least until Harper gets back, and see if it helps kick start the production (against righties):

  1. REALMUTO C
  2. BOHM 3B
  3. SCHWARBER LF
  4. HOSKINS 1B
  5. HALL DH
  6. CASTELLANOS RF
  7. STOTT 2B
  8. VIERLING CF
  9. GREGORIOUS SS (until you trade for Iglesias.)

Against lefties, You probably make Bohm the DH, move Castellanos to 5, Vierling to 6, and get both Camargo and Munoz into the lineup somewhere at the bottom.

OTHER STUFF

  • The pitchers, for the most part, looked great Saturday. Zack Wheeler was his old self. allowing just one run on three hits in seven innings. Brad Hand was a little off, but he was picked up by Connor Brogdon who came in and got out of a bases loaded jam in the eighth and Seranthony Dominguez was untouchable in the ninth. Jose Alvarado took the loss in the 10th. But, considering he started with a ghost runner, he went strike out, weak chopper to third, double (that good fielding third baseman field), bloop single to right (that a good fielding outfielder might make a diving attempt on), and then a double play ground ball that Bohm misses. Tough to blame a pitcher who is pitching to weak contact.
  • Bailey Falter will get the nod Sunday. In order to bring him in, another move will have to be made. We’ll see who gets sent out.
  • Thomson said he’s not sure if Sam Coonrod will need a full 30 days to get ready to come back to the majors even though he didn’t have a Spring Training. He said they’ve been working with him to build his arm strength, and he threw between 96 and 99 in his first rehab appearance.
  • Jean Segura is on track to return in the next two weeks. Segura wants it to be next week. Thomson thinks that might be a little ambitious.
  • The 97 degrees at first pitch Saturday was the fourth highest temperature for a game in Citizen’s Bank Park history.