Surging Phillies Look Like Real Deal on a Strange Day at Citizens Bank Park
The surging Phillies finished their weekend demolition of the stripped-down Washington Nationals by sweeping them out of town following a 13-1 win. Nick Maton provided a spark, Darick Hall went off, Rhys Hoskins homered again, and Phillies pitching breezed through an overmatched lineup.
It was a certified 100% ass-kicking of the highest degree.
My three key takeaways following four mostly uncompetitive games this weekend:
- The Nationals are absolutely brutal. Just crazy bad.
- The Phillies play the Nationals seven more times this season, and they should win all seven games. Not 5-2 or 6-1. 7-0. This may sound like a big ask but given they have now won 18 of the teams’ last 20 meetings dating back to last season, it doesn’t seem like an unrealistic one.
- The Phillies look legit.
Their latest victory makes it five wins in a row and 10 out of 11 overall, bringing them to 12 games over .500. That’s somewhere they haven’t been since Aug. 19, 2018. If recent history still has you skeptical about this team, then you will quickly point out their embarrassing collapse that season.
And in 2019…and in 2020…and in last year’s miss.
Those years (and plenty others) have understandably taken a toll on the optimism and belief of many around here, but the biggest difference in what we’re watching right now is that the top of the roster is getting more support from the bottom of it.
“I know that the last few years we haven’t played well in September, but each team was a little bit different,” Phillies interim manager Rob Thomson said after the game. “This is a different group. There’s a lot of leadership in the clubhouse and a lot of winners on the field, and we’re playing well. We’ve got an outstanding bullpen who’s been pitching very well, so there’s a lot of reasons I have a lot of confidence this team can get through the end.”
Sunday’s win provided the latest example of the Phillies’ improvement around the edges.
In the second inning, recently-recalled Nick Maton was hit by a pitch and later scored the game’s first run. Two innings later, he provided some breathing room with a two-run blast that gave the Phillies a 4-0 lead and sparked a barrage of homers that ended with a second-deck shot from Darick Hall, his second of the game.
https://twitter.com/BrodesMedia/status/1556355560416714752?s=20&t=0vAcbGJ1IP18QCpECRPAuA
In between, Rhys Hoskins launched his fourth homer in as many days. All of it added up to a five-run fourth inning that powered the Phillies to a comfortable lead, one Aaron Nola and three Phillies relievers wouldn’t relinquish.
Maton made the most of his return following a more than two-month absence by reaching base four times and recording three hits.
He hadn’t taken an at-bat with the Phillies in over two months after injuring his shoulder in early June. Late last month, he completed a rehab assignment and was optioned to Lehigh Valley before the Phillies recalled him over the weekend.
In the eighth inning, he capped his day with an RBI double that plated the final run of the game.
https://twitter.com/BrodesMedia/status/1556382096976973825?s=20&t=FlUHhniOVxg_xZNIGK1R3A
The Phillies have to like where they’re at right now. They arrive at Monday’s off day with a 38-19 record under Thomson and now hold the inside track for the National League’s second wild card spot after the Padres fell to the Dodgers Sunday night. In fact, the Phillies now sit just three games behind the Braves for the first wild card spot after Atlanta was pounded by the Mets over the weekend.
If you care about postseason probabilities, then there are a few worth knowing this morning:
- Baseball Reference: 92.8%
- FanGraphs: 73.9%
- FiveThirtyEight: 84%
From a betting standpoint, the Phillies are now -295 to make the postseason at DraftKings Sportsbook.
With a prolonged stretch of games featuring plenty of matchups against losing teams, they are in a favorable position to continue their climb.
I mean, look at this:
Barring a collapse today, the Phillies will end the weekend 60-48 with 28 of their next 35 games against losing teams.
25 of those 35 are against teams at least 10 games under .500.
The only winning team the Phils face between now and Sept. 16 is the Mets.
— Corey Seidman (@CSeidmanNBCS) August 7, 2022
In other words, 80 percent of the Phillies’ next 35 games come against losing teams, while 71 percent of those games come against flat-out bad teams. If they’re going to hit the 88+ wins likely needed to reach the postseason, now is the time to step on the gas.
An, Uh, Eventful Broadcast
Anthony SanFilippo already tackled Pete Rose’s comments to Alex Coffey of The Inquirer and Dan Gelston of the The Associated Press. You can check his story out right here.
From my perspective, there are a lot of folks 50 and older who will tell you Rose is one of the best baseball players they have ever seen. It’s almost universally accepted at this point that he was the straw that stirred the drink for the 1980 team, and there are plenty of fans that were eager to see him appear at the stadium Sunday. The loud ovation he received serves as proof of this.
Still, I was surprised the Phillies invited him. I was really surprised they put him on the game broadcast.
On the other hand, I wasn’t surprised his media interactions became the lead story on a day the 1980 championship team and red-hot 2022 team should have been.
As Anthony noted in his story, once Rose was made available to the media, it was inevitable things weren’t going to go well — and that’s not on the reporters. The questions asked by both Coffey and Gelston were fair, and Rose’s responses were predictability poorly-worded and insensitive.
As for his appearance on the broadcast during the sixth inning, it was probably a successful one for NBC Sports Philadelphia.
Cock-high fastballs, horse shit, John Kruk’s balls.
Rose’s appearance had it all, so if buzz, retweets, and reach across the internet are ancillary goals for NBC Sports Philly broadcast, then the interview was a big win.
— Crossing Broad (@CrossingBroad) August 7, 2022
Pete rose really just said this to john kruk hahah#phillies pic.twitter.com/UNoQfHACL6
— Milkman Salamander (@MilkmanSally) August 7, 2022
Speaking of Kruk, he loosened things up with this story in the fourth inning:
let's go, bitch pic.twitter.com/ujZqCGogG2
— Nick Piccone (@_piccone) August 7, 2022