Why the Wild Card Race May Not be the Only Race to Watch for the Phillies
How hot are the Phillies right now?
Rhys Hoskins is doing things no Phillie has done since at least 1900, maybe ever.
J.T. Realmuto is doing things no catcher in baseball has ever done, and has only been done 24 times in the history of the game.
Aside from Kyle Schwarber, who continues to struggle offensively and could use a day off (Sunday?) every Phillie in the starting lineup had a hit Saturday… by the second inning.
Yes, the Phillies are playing the equivalent of an AAA team in the Washington Nationals, but they are doing something they couldn’t do in previous seasons that cost them a playoff spot, which is beat up on bad teams.
After an 11-5 win over the Nationals, the Phillies improve to 10-2 vs. Washington this season. They play them eight more times.
A win Sunday, and they’ll complete a four-game sweep on the heels of the four-game sweep in Pittsburgh last weekend.
The Phillies are beating who they have to beat. Heck… They’re pretty much beating everyone. They’re 38-19 since June 1. They’re 22-13 since the Bryce Harper injury. Looking at games against teams in the National League, the only teams the Phillies don’t have a winning record against this season are the Mets (3-9), who they haven’t played since before June, the Giants (1-2), and the Braves (6-6). And while it’ll be really hard to finish with a winning record against New York, the Phillies technically could get on the plus side of the ledger against all three.
The Phillies are 59-48. That’s 11 games over .500 for the first time since May 29th, 2019. They haven’t been 11-games over .500 this late in the season since Aug. 23rd, 2018, about a week before an epic September collapse.
Yet there are still a lot of fans who are afraid to buy in to the Phillies because they’ve witnessed the September swoon in each of the past four seasons:
- 2018: 8-20
- 2019: 12-16 (lost 11 of last 16)
- 2020: 13-17 (lost 7 of last 8 and missed playoffs on the final day)
- 2021: 14-16 (includes three games in October. Lost 6 of last 7)
So, i’s understandable that they remain skeptical and want the Phillies to prove it’s different this time around first.
That’s fair, but I’m telling you, it’s different already. The bullpen was a major issue in previous seasons, it’s now a strength. Last year, after Hoskins got hurt in August, Harper was carrying the offensive load alone. This year, the lineup is much deeper. Last year, the Phillies had to use a bullpen game every fifth start because they had zero starting pitching depth. They currently have a very strong starting rotation, have at least two depth starters in Bailey Falter and Christopher Sanchez, and have fingers crossed that Zach Eflin can pitch again this season.
Oh, and in the past, the Phillies “hoped” they could hold on, or stay in the race. This year, they “believe” they can. There is a difference.
And it’s no longer just a race for the final Wild Card spot, which the Phillies currently own, one game ahead of the reeling Milwaukee Brewers. No, the Phillies are now within a half game of the San Diego Padres for the middle Wild Card spot. Yes, the Padres who, you might have heard, won the World Series last week when they traded for Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and Josh Hader.
Those same Padres have lost three straight.
Also, the Phillies have moved within four games of Atlanta, and are only three back in the loss column behind the top Wild Card team.
The Phillies remain 9 1/2 games behind the Mets, and that does seem like a daunting number to try to overcome. However, remember just one year ago this weekend, the Phillies went from four games behind the Mets to two in front in the span of seven days.
These Mets, who, like the Phillies are a lot different than last year, do have their most daunting portion of the schedule ahead of them beginning Friday. They will go through a stretch of 23 games with 19 of them coming against the Phillies (7), Braves (4), Yankees (2) and Dodgers (3).
Aside from their head-to-head games against the Mets, in that same span the Phillies play the Reds (7), Pirates (3), Diamondbacks (3) and Giants (3).
So, it’s not ridiculous to think by Labor Day, if not sooner, the Phillies conversation could switch from just earning a Wild Card berth to having an outside shot at the Division.
But, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. That’s still a loooooong way off and too much has to go right for the Phillies to even think like that.
But if it were to happen, and there is a narrow path there, these guys would have to forge the path:
The Big Fella
https://twitter.com/BrodesMedia/status/1556050539707768832
With that homer, Hoskins has done something no Phillie has done since at least 1900, maybe ever – and that’s hit a first inning home run in three straight games (per Elias Sports Bureau).
Hoskins’ season numbers are starting to get gaudy. He’s up to .252/.341/.489 with an .829 OPS and an OPS+ of 130. He has 23 homers (seventh in the NL) and 52 RBI.
Breaking it down further, since the managerial change, Hoskins is hitting .279/.376/.569 with an OPS of .944 and 15 homers (a 43-homer pace over 162 games).
The most impressive thing has been his consistency over more than two months now. Hoskins was always considered a streaky hitter. No longer.
Jacob Tyler
https://twitter.com/BrodesMedia/status/1556085478796951552
According to Baseballreference.com, J.T. Realmuto became the first catcher in baseball history to hit a triple and a homer in the same game on consecutive nights.
In fact, it was only he 24th time it’s ever happened and first time since 2014.
Want to talk about a guy who turned his season around? Just look at Realmuto. There were some blabbering sports radio pundits who, six weeks ago, were declaring his career – his CAREER – was over because he can’t hit anymore and that he is overrated defensively. I will concur that he’s not as good defensively as everyone makes him out to be (he’s got a rifle for an arm, but that’s it). Pitch framing, pitch blocking, wild pitch prevention, calling a game – not elite, in my mind.
But at the dish? Reports of his demise are greatly exaggerated.
Since the Harper injury, Realmuto has been their most productive player. He’s hitting .333/.393/.657 with an eye-popping OPS of 1.050. He had three more RBI Saturday, meaning in those 28 games without Bryce he’s had 8 homers and 25 RBI. Extrapolate those counting stats over a 162 game season and you’d get a 46 homer, 145 RBI season. Of course, that’s a crazy pace for almost any player to sustain for a full season, never mind a catcher. But you can see just how impressive it’s been for six weeks now, which isn’t a small sample.
Little Nicky
Maybe Nick Castellanos needed that brief, but viral, dustup with the media to get his game going. Since that post-game event a couple weeks ago, Castellanos has put up .360/.385/.520 with a .905 OPS. It’s only 13 games, but he’s had 18 hits in those games and is hitting the ball with more authority, especially to the pull side. He has a pair of homers – one was a game-winner against the Braves – and also had a game-saving outfield assist on Thursday against Washington.
Castellanos had two more hits and two more RBI Saturday.
Bohm-bastic
We already know his July was ridiculous, but it’s continuing into August. He had a double and two walks Saturday. The double extended his latest hit streak to a modest four games, and its important to point out that Bohm hasn’t had back-to-back games without a hit since June 10-11 against Arizona. But more important was him walking twice Saturday.
If there’s one thing left for Bohm to do offensively this season, it’s to know he has a hot bat behind him (currently Realmuto) and realize he’s going to get pitches to hit, but at the same time, depending on the situation, may get pitchers nibbling against him, trying to force him to get himself out. Bohm hadn’t walked in his 13 previous games before walking twice against Washington. It was only the second time all season where he walked more than once in a game. The other was way back on April 11 against the Mets.
But when you are hitting like he is – since the last back-to-back 0-fer, it’s .360/.384/.406 with an OPS of .890 – you don’t get picky about not enough walks.
D-Fence?
The one thing the Phillies are certainly not known for is their defense. However, they have not been as horrible as advertised this season. That’s not to say they’ve been good – or even average – but they’ve been… improved.
And now that hey traded for Brandon Marsh and Edmundo Sosa, maybe they can reach mediocre – which would be a boon for this team.
While Marsh didn’t start Saturday, Matt Vierling started the game off with a diving catch on the first batter of the game:
https://twitter.com/BrodesMedia/status/1556048679911440386
He would follow that up with a three-run homer in the bottom of the first, blowing the game open. But the most impressive defense came from Sosa, who got his first start at third base (Bohm DH’d) and came through with several sensational plays, including this one:
https://twitter.com/BrodesMedia/status/1556089766386483201
Rob Thomson said before the game, shortstop is his best position. If he can do that defensively and provide a little offense, he had an RBI double Saturday as well, what a deadline steal he could have been by Dave Dombrowski.
The MVP
Oh yeah, don’t forget this guy is getting closer and closer to coming back too:
Bryce in the booth w Kruk & T-Mac 🔥 pic.twitter.com/Ym4us8OrJQ
— Barstool Philly (@BarstoolPhilly) August 5, 2022
A little Revisionist History
In the winter of 2018, the Phillies tried hard to sign free agent pitcher Patrick Corbin. They brought him to town, took him and his wife to a nice restaurant, brought him to Citizens Bank Park where he saw himself in a Phillies uniform on the scoreboard. Oh, and they offered him a contract, believed to be worth around $125 million over five years.
The sticking point is Corbin was looking for a six-year deal and the Phillies were reluctant to add that extra year. Eventually, Washington offered it, at a grand total of $140 million, and Corbin became such an integral part of the rotation there that won he World Series less than a year later.
Since then? Yikes.
In the three seasons since winning the title, Corbin is 15-39 with a 5.98 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP.
This season has been the worst of all. He is 4-16 with an ERA of 7.02 and a WHIP of 1.82. Opponents are batting .331 against him. His WAR is minus-2.5, meaning a replacement level minor league is worth more than two wins more than him right now. His ERA plus is a woeful 68, meaning he’s 32% worse than the average major league starter.
These could have been his Philadelphia numbers. Even worse, if Corbin signed here, the Phillies very likely do not sign Zack Wheeler a year later.
Corbin started the game Saturday and didn’t get through the first inning.
Every Phillie that made contact against Corbin, even the outs, were hit hard. According to Statcast, here’s how the Phillies hitters hit Corbin in the first inning Saturday:
- Schwarber ground out to 3B 106mph exit velocity
- Hoskins homer to LCF 109.4mph
- Bohm walked
- Realmuto fly out to CF 102.0mph
- Castellanos single to RF 103.9mph
- Vierling homer to LF 104.1mph
- Segura single to RCF 105.7mph
- Sosa hit by pitch
- Stott triple to CF 102.7mph
- Schwarber walked
That’s pretty remarkable. And the Phillies should thank their lucky stars he decided to not sign here.
Down on the farm
There were a lot of fans who wanted Dave Dombrowski to go all-in and get a stud starting pitcher at the deadline, even if it cost him one or more of his top pitching prospects. He relented. Two of those guys, Mick Abel and Andrew Painter, pitched yesterday for High-A Lakewood in a double header.
How’d it go?
Second-ranked @Phillies prospect Mick Abel fanned eight in six scoreless innings in the first game of a @BlueClaws doubleheader: https://t.co/vMBG56LQ6y pic.twitter.com/tzeRBJGBce
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) August 7, 2022
Andrew Painter goes the distance!
The top-ranked @Phillies prospect strikes out 11 in a 7-inning complete game for the @BlueClaws. pic.twitter.com/HJJ5s7uZG3
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) August 7, 2022
Maybe Dombrowski knows what he’s doing.
Update on the Mick
First, this happened:
So this happened (again) https://t.co/Z9lwBwSDpO
— Alex Coffey (@byalexcoffey) August 7, 2022
But then, this happened:
Mickey Moniak was hit on his finger on a bunt attempt and had x-rays taken. The initial prognosis isn’t good, Nevin said.
— Rhett Bollinger (@RhettBollinger) August 7, 2022
Oh, well. The Mick report will have to go on hiatus until next Spring when he’s battling for a major league job against… Mike Trout.