Good morning, Philadelphia. Your baseball team is two wins away from the World Series.

There’s plenty to discuss after the Phillies’ 4-2 win over the Padres in Game 3 of the NLCS, but before we get to it, how about a brief pause to consider that this team, flaws and all, is now fully within reach of playing on baseball’s biggest stage.

Fittingly, the latest win was representative of the 2022 Phillies. Success didn’t come in conventional fashion. Their path to this point hasn’t always been smooth. It sure as hell wasn’t in Game 3. But these guys continue to defy expectations thanks to a unique ability to overcome adversity and pick themselves up each time it would be easy to do otherwise.

Make an error? Make the next play. Have a bad at-bat? Bear down and get it done next time. Have a bad game? Someone else has your back.

What has been most impressive to watch this October is how the Phillies have pieced together a 7-2 start to the postseason without ever seeming to fire on all cylinders.  On Friday night, as much as the story was Jean Segura’s big two-out hit in the fourth that broke a 1-1 tie, it was just as much about his hard-to-process error on a potential inning-ending double play moments earlier that allowed the Padres to tie the game.

Segura’s crazy night was the Phillies’ most recent redemption story. I think no matter how this thing ends, what people will remember most about this team is its ability to overcome the frequent reminders of its imperfections. For them, it has become an art form.

What’s the Issue?

By now, you’re probably starting to look ahead to tonight’s Game 4, one that could have the Phillies playing in a clinching scenario come tomorrow afternoon. Bailey Falter will get the ball for the first time since he threw exactly 11 pitches against the Astros back on Oct. 5.

It’s not exactly an ideal situation. Nothing against Falter, he’s a big reason the Phillies pushed into the postseason, but what amounts to a bullpen game the night after the bullpen’s most important pieces were heavily taxed isn’t the perfect script.

So, this begs the question — why did Rob Thomson yank Game 3 starter Ranger Suarez, who had been effective, after just 68 pitches? I saw plenty of people bitching about this on Twitter (surprise!), so let’s dive into it.

First, Thomson:

Yeah, so taking Ranger out after the fifth, he hadn’t pitched in nine days. He’s had close to 70 pitches, plus we’re coming through a right-handed pocket there, third time through, starting at Machado. So I just thought it was the right time to go to a right-hander, and that was (Zach) Eflin.

But was this a classic case of overthinking things? Had it not been for some bad luck and a pair of errors, the Padres may not have scored a run through five innings.

I don’t think so.

The long layoff mentioned by Thomson is only part of the equation. Opposing hitters had a .647 OPS against Suarez the second time through the order this season. They had an .818 OPS against him the third time through.

Let’s be honest, Suarez can be a tremendously effective pitcher, as he was in Game 3, but he’s also not an overpowering one. Like many other pitchers across the league, effectiveness diminishes on the third look, so Thomson managed a tight game with an all-in approach. It’s one that leaves him short with moves during Game 4. Maybe he has Jose Alvarado for a key situation after throwing 27 pitches, but you won’t see Seranthony Dominguez following a stressful two-inning save.

Still, I thought Thomson’s approach was the right blend of playing for moment while using some soft consideration for what lies ahead. If the Phillies can’t wrap this series by the time Aaron Nola walks off the mound in a potential Game 6, they’ll likely need to bring back Suarez on short rest. The ability to do that following 68 pitches against, let’s say, 85+ is real.

The potential of five postseason games in five days creates difficult pitching decisions. This was one of them. I thought it was the right one.

Feel the Love

Unless I’m missing someone, and I’m pretty sure I’m not, it has been awhile since Phillies fans fell in love with a player. That’s changing.

We all know the deal by now. The Phillies weren’t exactly the hottest ticket in town this summer, this despite a surprising midseason turnaround. One of the points I made frequently throughout the season whenever anyone would bring up fan interest is that this is a likable team. It’s one with a number of players the city could embrace. They just needed some big moments in big spots for it happen.

It’s easy to look back at the key names of the 2007-2011 run now and feel like you loved those guys all along, but players like Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, and Carlos Ruiz didn’t reach that level of adoration until they were in middle of big postseason moments.

Hell, even Matt Stairs is a fucking legend here.

Throughout this unexpected deep postseason run, there have been a few Phillies to emerge with big moments, raising their profiles in the process.  But at the top of my list is Schwarber, who, in case you missed it, led the National League with 46 home runs this season. He’s easy to like. A standup guy, noted clubhouse leader, and he can hit the ball a mile, as you saw the other night. It doesn’t hurt that he comes across like the type of guy you would want to drink 10 beers with.

In the middle of a championship chase, nobody is going to pause and think about what this run will do for the team beyond this season. Nobody is thinking about the future, rightfully so, but it’s pretty obvious that this group is forging a bond with the city that previously didn’t exist. That’s going to show up moving forward.

What an Answer

Jean Segura’s Game 3 was quite a bit to unpack. Clutch hits and clutch defense wrapped around a brutal error and a mistake on the bases. It was an all-timer. After the game, he explained how he developed the mental toughness to flush a bad play in a big spot. His answer was probably my favorite of the season:

Bryson Stott, You Are the Man

I didn’t know it was possible to be impressed with a .234 regular season hitter and a .182 postseason hitter, but here we are. Those numbers typically draw boos, and yet, I feel like Bryson Stott is in the midst of a breakout October. I’ve been saying for months that he possesses some intangible, what people call the “it” factor, and I know I’m not alone with that opinion.

Obviously, the Segura go-ahead hit will get most of the play, but how about Stott’s at-bat before it? After quickly falling into an 0-2 hole to Padres starter Joe Musgrove, Stott took two pitches outside the zone and fouled two off before lacing a double to right.

https://twitter.com/BrodesMedia/status/1583626247116304385?s=20&t=966Op42XEZsQmei2V1x1mw

That’s a big-time at-bat from a young player.

The Bad Stuff

I track some discussion points during the game. The Phillies won, so this thing obviously skews positive, but it wasn’t all good last night, so let’s tackle the bad stuff here.

Let Him Off the Hook

The Phillies looked primed to deal Musgrove a potential kill shot before the Padres starter even recorded an out.

After Schwarber popped a leadoff homer, both Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto did a stellar job of remaining patient to work walks in a moment that could have sparked an overanxious approach.

Musgrove guided a 1-1 sinker into the danger zone of Bryce Harper’s swing path. Harper had it timed, but swung just underneath the pitch, fouling it back.

What could have resulted in major damage instead led to a rally-killing double play ball. A pitch later, Musgrove was out of the inning without any further damage after getting Nick Castellanos to ground out.

His inning looked like this:

  • First 22 pitches: 0 outs
  • Last two pitches: 3 outs

That’s the definition of letting a guy off the hook.

Maybe Watch a Pitch or Two

Speaking of Castellanos, he came to the plate in the fourth inning after Harper led off with a single and promptly swung at the first pitch for the second time in as many at-bats. And for the second time in as many at-bats, he rolled over with a weak grounder, this one resulting in a double play.

Two at-bats, two pitches, three outs.

I have no issue with an an aggressive approach. Lots of hitters will tell you the first pitch is often the best one they’ll get, and it’s true. But Castellanos is swinging at absolutely everything right now. I’m not sure it’s about being aggressive as it is a lack of trust in himself as the at-bat deepens.

He’s a good hitter with an outstanding track record, but it just feels like he’s forgotten that at times this season.

Catch. The. Ball.

A few minutes after the Phillies took a 3-1 lead, Rhys Hoskins gift wrapped a run right back to the Padres with a play that was hard to process in real-time.

https://twitter.com/BrodesMedia/status/1583628618319958016?s=20&t=Zzx9PcSJwsMRFvWoQyWwBw

The crowd, many of which had just finished asking themselves “what the f*** was that?” quickly got on Hoskins, and deservedly so. Following a strikeout in the bottom of the inning, they were on him again.

There’s no need for cheap shots here. We all know the deal. Hoskins seems like an awesome guy. He’s also an above average hitter. But man.