To the surprise of pretty much nobody, the Game 4 matchup between Bailey Falter and Mike Clevinger failed to play out as a classic postseason pitchers’ duel.

Falter yielded four earned runs and recorded only two outs before Clevinger promptly walked out to the mound, threw some warm-up tosses, and folded by coughing up three runs of his own. He recorded zero outs.

The collective damage: 39 pitches, 10 batters faced, two outs, six hits, two walks, seven earned runs, all done in a crisp 48 minutes.

Cue the ESPN ”30 for 30″ music:

What if I told you Bailey Falter, who turned in the Phillies’ shortest postseason start since Game 4 of the 1980 World Series, outpitched Mike Clevinger in Game 4 of the 2022 NLCS?


The Phillies were able to quickly erase most of an early 4-0 deficit four batters into the game. Trailing by two runs in the fifth, Bryce Harper emerged as the lead story when he gently reminded the Padres whose house they were in.

But the big talking point early on was the decision to start Falter.

The expectations were never exactly great. The Phillies had hoped he could survive the San Diego one time through, give the team three innings and a chance.

That didn’t happen.

The blame that followed wasn’t directed towards the player, it was directed at the decision to even put a player whose last outing came 16 days prior and lasted just 11 pitches.

Who knew Noah Syndergaard, who would later take down four key outs, was so popular?

So, let’s talk about the pregame decision to go with Falter. Syndergaard proved more effective in Game 4, but who knows how things play out if he starts the game?

With the hope of getting a multi-inning run out of whoever took the ball, here’s what the Phillies had to consider:

Falter: In his final eight starts (including his one inning tune up on Oct. 5), Falter helped push the Phillies into the postseason by pitching to a 3.07 ERA over 44 innings. Snapped a few losing streaks in big sports down. Prolonged layoff. No postseason experience.

Syndergaard: In 10 appearances (nine starts) with the Phillies following the August trade deadline, Syndergaard posted a 4.12 ERA over 54 2/3 innings. He was temporarily bumped from the rotation before throwing 5 2/3 of shutout baseball against the Nationals. He had already appeared twice this postseason, dialing up three quality innings in his Game 4 NLDS start against the Braves.

Even now, it’s hard to know if the Phillies’ decision was based on performance or matchups. In terms of matchups, Padres team batting splits don’t show much of a difference. They posted a collective .701 OPS against right-handed starters and a .697 OPS against left-handed starters.

Jurickson Profar had a higher average and on-base percentage against lefties, but slugged less. Josh Bell was better across the board facing lefties. The one distinct check in Falter’s box was that Juan Soto put up a .701 OPS against LHP and a strong .942 against RHP this season.

So, maybe Soto’s numbers were the deciding factor. Or perhaps it was overall second half performance.

Falter unequivocally outperformed Syndergaard down the stretch. And while Syndergaard turned in a stellar effort against the Braves, do those three innings outweigh a larger, albeit more distant, sample size?

Still, experience and rhythm matters and Syndergaard was probably better suited for the environment, so there’s a legit argument that this was always the wrong decision, independent of outcome.

Truthfully, I don’t think either option was a no-brainer, but if you were pissed about the decision before things blew up, I get it.

Fortunately, it didn’t matter. I’m not sure anything does right now for this fucking team. These guys are out of their minds right now. As I wrote following Game 3, the Phillies have perfected the art of overcoming their imperfections.